Hong Kong Stock Exchange (388) rebounded 15% from low, national policy blew a breeze, Li Huifen expected to top the top this year

The Mainland continues to strengthen the supervision of science and technology companies, emphasizes data security, and tightens the regulatory requirements for companies to list overseas.

After Didi went public in the United States earlier, the app was required to be removed, causing a wave of small stocks in Hong Kong, US and China. Only the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's (0388) share price rose against the market.

On Friday (16th), it was rumored that the Mainland was exempted from the cyber security review of listed companies in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange closed up 3.8% to 524 yuan, a new high in May, and rebounded 15% from the recent low.

The stock's return to courage is related to the market's expectation that more Chinese technology companies will be listed in Hong Kong under the new policy.

In fact, many major banks have recently raised their target prices on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and are optimistic about its future trends. In an interview with "Hong Kong 01", Li Huifen, the executive director of Gaobao Group Securities, said that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange would not rule out the end of this year to the beginning of next year. Breaking the historical high of 582.54 yuan.

Under the new round of regulatory policies, it is rumored that lalamove may transfer its final listing location and return to Hong Kong from the United States.

(Photo by Huang Jie)

The mainland planned to tighten the supervision of overseas listings earlier. Companies must obtain security reviews from the Cyberspace Administration of China before going overseas. Many companies are rumored to abandon US listings and return to Hong Kong because of concerns about policy uncertainties.

For example, it is rumored that lalamove, a local technology logistics company, had planned to go public in the United States and raised more than US$1 billion, but the company decided to move the listing location, which has the opportunity to become the first batch of companies to return to Hong Kong to be listed under the new policy.

Experts generally believe that in the future, more companies will diversify and return to Hong Kong in the face of the same situation, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will benefit.

Goldman Sachs turns to raise the target price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Goldman Sachs raised its target price on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 400 yuan to 495 yuan on Monday (12th), raised its earnings per share from this year to 2023 by about 1%, and upgraded its rating from "sell" to "neutral."

Goldman Sachs pointed to increased incentives for Chinese concept stocks to list in Hong Kong. The report assumes that all Chinese companies listed in foreign countries will return to Hong Kong after 2016. Based on the Hong Kong stock exchange rate, it is expected that the daily trading volume of the spot market on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be This is an increase of 11% from the year-to-date.

As for Motong, it has also issued a report recently, raising the target price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 545 yuan to 570 yuan and maintaining the "overweight" rating.

However, Motong lowered its earnings per share forecast on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by 9%, referring to the second quarter’s average daily trading volume of securities and derivatives trading volume worse than expected, down 28% and 31% quarter-to-quarter respectively.

Having said that, the bank's earnings per share forecasts for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from this year to 2023 are on average 2%, 16% and 21% higher than the market.

CICC maintained the "Outperform Industry" rating on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 8, with a target price of 611 yuan.

The bank expects the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s second-quarter earnings to rise 10% year-on-year, and fall 15% quarter-to-quarter to 3.26 billion yuan.

CICC pointed out that due to the year-on-year decline in the average daily trading volume of derivatives on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the impact of capital gains on the high base of the same period last year, its second-quarter earnings growth rate was lower than the average daily trading volume.

HSBC Global Research also pointed out on Thursday (15th) that the tightening of regulations on overseas listings of Chinese-funded companies in the Mainland will affect the original short-term listing plans of these companies in the short term. However, in the medium term, the relevant measures will enhance overseas listed companies. Quality has promoted Hong Kong to become "Oriental Nasdaq."

HSBC said that of the 250 Chinese concept stocks, 14 have returned to Hong Kong for secondary listing, and it has also identified 25 stocks that meet the requirements for secondary listing.

HSBC recently issued a report optimistic about the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, describing it as an "Oriental Nasdaq."

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Li Huifen: The average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks has a chance to break 300 billion

The scale of the return of Chinese concept stocks is not yet known, but the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has already reacted and returned to the "brown stocks". It closed at 524 yuan on Friday, and the previous P/E ratio has reached 57 times.

Li Huifen, Executive Director of Global Securities Group Securities, said that in the past two years, due to the Sino-US trade war, many companies have planned to list in Hong Kong, but they have not taken too many practical actions. Instead, it has become clear. "Everyone may not take risks. (Listing in the U.S.), because the current Chinese regulatory regulations are very clear. Therefore, even mainland companies that originally planned to go to the U.S. or have already listed in the U.S. are gradually returning to Hong Kong, which is a good thing for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange."

She also mentioned that there are two factors that determine whether it will be listed in Hong Kong or China. One is the nature of the business, and the other is the reputation of the industry. "The companies attracted to list in Hong Kong are mostly internationally renowned industry leaders. On the contrary, the industry Most of these stocks that are not sought after by Hong Kong people choose to be listed on the mainland."

Li Huifen pointed out that when the stock market was booming at the beginning of the year, the daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks once surpassed 300 billion yuan, and then narrowed to only more than 100 billion yuan. However, it is a different matter from the tens of billions of yuan before.

She believes that the current price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has bottomed out, and the stock price has risen across the rampant zone.

"The stock price will rise slowly in the second half of the year, and the market sentiment and upward trend will gradually become clear. From the end of this year to the beginning of next year, we will not rule out that it will break the historical high (Note: 582.54 yuan)."

The analysis pointed out that the current Chinese regulatory regulations are very clear, which is good for companies to list in Hong Kong.

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China's demographic dividend supports the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Statistics show that Hong Kong stocks have performed strongly at the beginning of this year. The average daily turnover in January hit a new monthly high of 245.7 billion yuan. In the first quarter, there were five trading days with a turnover of more than 300 billion yuan.

She believes that there is a great chance that the daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks will exceed 300 billion. However, the listing conditions will be changed in January next year. The profit requirement for listing on the main board has increased by 60%. It is expected that the future stock price rise of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will not be as rapid as before. "The listing requirements in Hong Kong will always increase next year. Even if some giants or medium-sized companies want to go public at the end of the year, the time may not be enough to influence the stock price trend of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange." Li Huifen suggested that those who have goods can continue to hold them and those who want to buy goods. You can wait for the interval between 490 and 494 yuan.

Hong Kong stocks underperformed the market this year. On August 1st, the stock stamp duty rate was officially increased. Coupled with the struggle between China and the United States, even if more Chinese technology stocks come to Hong Kong for listing, will the overall increase in trading volume be in doubt?

Li Huifen pointed out that there is a large amount of capital inflows from the mainland and international in the Hong Kong stock market, and the central government has also stated that it will promote the development of Hong Kong's asset management business. To a certain extent, it has established Hong Kong as an asset management center. Stamp duty does not return to Hong Kong for listing.

Huatai Securities analyst Lu Chengming stated that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong stock market have five major advantages.

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In addition, she mentioned that due to China's large population, investors have also increased proportionally, and the demographic dividend in disguise cannot be ignored.

For the Chinese, investing in real estate is their first choice, but the mainland's policies are not conducive to buying a second or more houses, and investors will tend to buy stocks, funds, bonds, etc.

"Young people in the Mainland are more enterprising, and now it is very convenient to buy stocks, so there is no need to worry about the valuation of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and PE will be too high. China's demographic dividend is fully supportive."

Five competitive advantages of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Huatai Securities analyst Lu Cheng even stated that in the long run, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong market have relatively strong comprehensive competitive advantages. First, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has a comprehensive product coverage, including fixed income stocks and commodities; secondly, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange The scale and liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market rank among the top in the global market; third, the Hong Kong stock market can concentrate local and international funds to increase market activity, and the strong two-way capital flow in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to maintain steady growth in the future; the fourth Hong Kong stock exchange will also Due to recent reforms (such as allowing companies to list with different rights on the same stock and allowing unprofitable biotech companies to list in Hong Kong), many companies have been attracted to list in Hong Kong; the Fifth Hong Kong Stock Exchange has actively improved the investment process and convenience. Make it more competitive.