Ignacio Zuleta
07/18/2021 7:29 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 07/18/2021 7:29 PM
Closing of lists, a festival of self-employment
Anyone who believes that with some proselytizing plot will distort the underlying tendencies of the vote is deceived.
The result of this year's parliamentary elections will not substantially modify the balance of forces in Congress.
Nor in the legislatures of the provinces.
What it will provide is a roadmap on the fate of the leaders for the design of the presidential renewal in 2023.
It is what sustains the campaign decisions in the final week before the presentation of the candidate lists,
which will take place at midnight on Saturday the 24th.
As there are 24 simultaneous elections, it will be somewhat viscous to draw any conclusions about tectonic changes, winners. and net losers. These results are decisive for the caciques' aspirations that they be taken into account by 2023. It is already difficult to bet today with certainty on these intentions, because in times of closing of lists the center of the stage is occupied by those who dispute candidacies, and they postpone party chiefs.
The prominence of the applicants undermines the quality of the debate, exposing its weaknesses more than its strengths. Macri philosophized a few days ago that "you always see the worst in the closing of lists, human miseries." The lamented "Chueco" Mazzón once remembered that in the first closing of lists that he had to organize in Mendoza, when he began his career Politics, he saw how an applicant played his own daughter at the negotiating table in exchange for a place that was “accessible.” After that, El Chueco said, one can expect anything in a closing.
Incidentally, the Peronism of 2015 did not survive the death of Mazzón, its strategic national shipowner.
Will today's Peronism survive the death of Jorge Landau, his attorney-in-fact since the last century, owner of keys and passwords to activate and deactivate the electoral processes of his party and others?
Virtual politics is over (Cristina's only achievement)
The ruling party and the opposition come to this closure with internal wounds more open than ever.
Peronism gave the sample in the Senate session last Thursday, where there were confessions of weakness and setbacks.
Cristina was absent with the justification that she was preparing her rap in court for the Iran case.
But he sent the signal that before the STEP the last trench that Peronism had is dismantled to impose virtuality in the sessions.
When the current protocol expires in August, the discussions will be all face-to-face.
The fight against virtuality was a weapon of the opposition, which was gaining positions in favor of presence, in Deputies and in the Senate.
This Friday the protocol in Deputies expires and it will no longer be renewed.
In August, that of the Senate also ends.
The ruling party will stick that decision, which is the latest in a series of setbacks, to the banner of the vaccine-vote.
If they are all vaccinated, why virtuality?
Virtuality has been an authoritarian tool for governments to muzzle their adversaries.
In Cristina's management balance in the vice presidency, it has been her only achievement.
Submitting the opposition to a forced virtuality.
In all the other projects that he has promoted, he has done badly.
Peronism on the verge of apnea attack
It is difficult for any of the big men of the ruling party to recognize this end as a cession to the opposition.
In the second lines is where you have to look for this type of confession.
Mariano Recalde, a champion of sincerity, admitted the backward movement of the ruling party with Pfizer's DNU in the face of pressure from the opposition: "[we are] making concessions that we would have liked not to make (...) we don't like having to accept a modification by DNU of a law that we voted in this Congress, due to the pressure of an international laboratory, accompanied by leaders of our country who were pressing together with that laboratory. "
He should have said something similar to justify that in a few months the Senate voted two biofuel projects,
to satisfy the interests of business sectors that take advantage of this business.
These legislators have to beware of the effects of apnea, from so much voting holding their noses.
Cristina bills in advance
Cristina's oral and public uproar over the Iran agreement is a device linked less to the law than to publicity.
The vice president acts with the conviction that all cases classified as illicit association have short legs.
Twenty years ago the Court already ruled that this figure is inapplicable to rulers, because an illicit association is armed to commit a crime, while a government does it to govern.
This doctrine was formulated by former judge Raúl Zaffaroni before the accusations against Carlos Menem in the arms case.
And the Court excused him from that accusation.
The subsequent conviction was for the crime of smuggling.
To recover air, what better for Cristina than to be emphatic and angry, knowing that the accusation is most likely to fall.
He will say later, did you see that it was lawfare?
The proselytizing intention is the mark on the edge, it consists of sticking it to Macri also in this plot, which began when no one believed that Mauricio would win the elections.
Larreta pays dearly, but corners the radicals
Larreta has to extend his skills beyond the metropolitan area.
María Eugenia Vidal's refusal to be a candidate for deputy in Buenos Aires forced him to deploy a man of his own - Diego Santilli - to play with a golden goal against the radicals.
It also forces him to reorder the goals in CABA, disturbed by Vidal herself as head of the list, elbowing the radical members of the district.
They are the sufferings of those who advance the times.
Larreta stabilizes the inclined plane in PBA at a high price: give a group of mayors in decisive districts - Guillermo Montenegro in the 5th section - Mar del Plata - Néstor Grindetti in the 3rd - Lanús - the pen for them, and no other command provincial, make the lists in the provincial and municipal offices.
That assignment took off the mayors of Jorge Macri, who ended up losing - who knows what in exchange for what - his claim to play with the radicals of Abad-Manes.
Skillful but expensive move in terms of traditional politics, although it is rational to give in in exchange for improving positions in the final battle.
He added to the republican Peronism of Miguel Pichetto and what this may mean in the future.
If you can now get Gustavo Posse to hold a list of his own in the STEP;
as third competitor against the PRO and the Abad-Manes list.
Key move, which can decide an end, because it takes away from them the thickest thing that they could claim in the first Section, the Posse sector, a form of radicalism.
If he succeeds, Larreta will have taken a lot out of his opponents from the territorial deployment.
The bottom line will tell if this strategy was successful.
Interesting panorama: a STEP seems obliged because there are so many applicants that there are missing charges.
That encourages competition.
But if Larreta turns the territory in his favor, he will have to endure more passes in simulations of an impossible unit.
Also under examination in Córdoba
The national board of Together (for Change) has an appointment this Monday to clear the opposition internism and discuss Córdoba, with remote Macri (still in Switzerland).
They need to close the conflict between the UCR and the PRO without blood.
It is the proof of love forwards, because it involves one of the national leaders of radicalism, such as Mario Negri, head of the interblock that the UCR shares with the PRO and the Coalition.
It is a point of unresolved contention, and there is no easy way out in the PASO - like the one designed in Buenos Aires.
In the PRO the difference is raised between Macri and his own power in that force, and other caciques such as Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich.
The former president supports the Luis Juez - Gustavo Santos tandem,
while Larreta and Patricia - the formal president of the Pro - swear by a peaceful alliance with the radicals that does not involve a confrontation.
Negri plays with the advantage that he has the best marks in the polls, he has a mandate for national deputy until 2023;
the position he holds today, head of the interblock, is more important than a seat in a Senate where his strength is a clear minority.
He has room to play and transfers the responsibility to the party leaders.
"It does not depend on me," he responds when asked if he will be a candidate.
Larreta is undergoing a permanent examination of his capacity for national leadership,
if he wants to be a candidate for president.
Córdoba is the test you have to take now.
A disorder in relations with the radicals of Córdoba benefits the Peronism of Juan Schiaretti, who would benefit from a disjointed UCR, especially in the 130 municipalities that this party has.
Castling and landslides
In the list of national deputies of the CABA, the blanket is very short: 1) Vidal, 2) Tetaz, 3) Olivetto, 4) Fernando Iglesias, 5) Carla Carrizo (or simile, but radical), 6) Fernando Sánchez, 7 ) Silvana Giudici, and there is nothing for more.
But Larreta's cabinet is the buffer of ambitions.
The new format will be known after next Saturday (closing of the lists), with a Republican Peronist in a second-line position.
In the first, Gustavo Ferrari is listed as Minister of Justice, unfolding Security
- two areas now in charge of Santilli, now El Bonaerense.
Another dignity in auction is the General Secretariat that
Fernando Straface
has today
, who will be the first candidate for Buenos Aires legislator "with the greatness of Spain"
- it would be said in the Bourbon Court - because he will exercise other privileges, such as the Presidency of the Legislature, that is, he will be the deputy chief of government of Larreta in the last two years.
He will be replaced by Emmanuel Ferrario, who comes from being the second of Federico Salvai in the chief of staff of the Vidal governorate. A signal to the radicals to digest the idea that María Eugenia will be Larreta's candidate for the Buenos Aires succession. The intersection with the radical project, that this position goes to one of them, will be the regulator of internal relations in the federal district coalition for the next two years. They make Martin Lousteau jump up. They will say: Don't you want to be president? What worries you about the head of government? In addition, Straface is in charge of international relations for the Buenos Aires Executive. That portfolio is taken to the Legislature, with which it will have more strength, power, travel expenses and friends around the world. He will continue to be the Chancellor of Larreta, but from the Legislature.
Time renews laws and mysteries
Until next Saturday the agreements in the metropolitan area are adjusted.
Vidal, who plays as a porteña, seeks to secure his own people in the province of Buenos Aires: Fabián Perenchodnik as the first provincial deputy for La Plata;
Daniela Reich, the wife of Mayor Diego Valenzuela, who repeats a provincial senator's seat.
Patricia Bullrich claims the same for Gerardo Millman's wife, Florencia Retamoso.
The ghost is the PASO: a fifth place in a list unique to the provincial legislator in PBA was "entrable." Today, with PASO, due to the d'Hont system and gender parity, you can finish outside. The Mércuri law is reactivated : “I ask for what they will not give me, to preserve what I already have.” Wise strategy of the crying man (by Osvaldo, yes, El pelado). The passage of time also renews the formulation of the three classic Argentine mysteries: 1) Where do the little birds go to die? 2) Who gets the prettiest girls? 3) Why made of wood, Dr. Vizzotti?