Eduardo Paladini
07/18/2021 10:59
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 07/18/2021 10:59 AM
With less than two months
until PASO 2021
, with
no confirmed candidates
in the force that won the last presidential election and with a
double active crisis
-economic and health-, pollsters are trying to decipher what can happen in this particular electoral context. As
Clarín said
days ago, based on an exhaustive report of 28 polls, there is still a lot of dispersion in the numbers in Nation, Province and -a little less- City. And now a new work has been added that addresses all three scenarios.
With very striking data
. Among other things, he predicts two draws today.
The survey is by
Jorge Giacobbe
, one of the consultants best known for his presence in the media.
Between July 8 and 10, it surveyed 2,500 cases throughout the country, with cuts in CABA and the province of Buenos Aires.
In 2019, like the bulk of analysts, this firm was far behind in its forecasts.
Giacobbe
distinguished himself for these intermediate legislatures for being the first consultant to go out to measure voting intention, when the coronavirus pandemic was just emerging.
He opted for a general, binary question, putting the ruling party as a subject.
Do you want the Government / Frente de Todos to win or lose the elections?
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
Do the people want the Frente de Todos to win or lose the election?
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
Do people want Together for Change to win or lose the election?
It was a year ago and then the bidding was relatively even: 37.3% wanted a new victory for the FdT, 42.9% a defeat and 18.9% did not care. The pollster made the same proposal again now, and the gap widened against the Government: 30% want a victory, 60.9% want to lose and 8.7% do not care.
When the inverted question is asked, putting
Together for Change
as the axis, the following happens:
44.1% want the main opposition alliance to win, 35.4% to lose and 19.4% do not care
.
In all cases fill in a marginal percentage of "ns / nc".
Tie in Nation?
The electoral chapter of work continues with a more specific question, always at the national level.
"Even without knowing who the candidates will be, will you vote for any of the following political spaces?"
.
First it presents the results
without projection of undecided
and in the highest bid of the crack
, Together for Change appears almost 6 points above the Front of All: 33.8% to 27.9%
.
Further down, very far, come the liberals (6.4%), non-K Peronism (4.5%) and the left (1.4%).
The undecided reach 25.8%.
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
How is the intention to vote at the national level.
But
when a part of the "don't know" is projected, the fight is even and a technical tie remains, with the ruling party a few tenths ahead: 35.8% to 35.2%
.
In the rest of the forces there are minor movements and 14.2% remain undecided.
It would be great news for Together for Change: the last parameter, the October presidential, ended 40-48.
Why would the undecided go mainly to the ruling party?
According to the report, "there is a latent tentative vote (for the FdT),
surely hidden by the shame of not being in the best moment of the political space
."
Tie in Province?
In the province of Buenos Aires the phenomenon is repeated but in an even more striking way.
When the same question is asked ("Even without knowing who the candidates will be, will you vote for any of the following political spaces?"),
Without projection of undecided Together for Change, it remains 10 points above
:
36.6% to 26, 6%
.
Undeterred, taking into account that in October 2019, the Frente de Todos won by about 15 points.
Below are the liberals (7%), the PJ not K (4.7%) and the left (1.3%).
The undecided, meanwhile, exceed 23 points.
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
How is the intention to vote in the Province.
What happens when a part of those "don't know" is projected? Again, the scenario remains with almost exact parity, because the majority, according to Giacobbe, goes to the ruling party, which ends less than one point down: 38.4% to 37.5%. Shameful vote Province version?
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
How is the intention to vote in the Province.
Afterwards, the survey presents several of the most mentioned candidates in Buenos Aires, to evaluate their possible performance.
And
first is Diego Santilli, from Together for Change, with 19.3%
.
They follow:
2) Facundo Manes (JxC): 15.4%.
3) Santiago Cafiero (FdT): 11.7%.
4) Sergio Berni (FdT): 8.6%.
5) Wado de Pedro (FdT): 7.6%.
6) José Luis Espert (Liberals): 6.8%.
7) Florencio Randazzo (PJ no K): 5.1%.
8) Nestor Pitrola (Left): 1.2%.
They complete the undecided (21.8%) and "Vote blank / Contested or I will not vote" (2.5%).
Important fact:
Victoria Tolosa Paz
, the official who sounds to head the provincial list of the Frente de Todos,
was not evaluated
.
Wide triumph of JxC in CABA?
More predictable and coincident with the rest of the polls, when surveying Buenos Aires,
Juntos por el Cambio clearly prevails
.
But interesting data also appear in the detail by candidate.
In the first case, the general question for space, the projection of undecided favors the force led by Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. From an initial advantage of about 10 points (35.5% to 24.8% of the FdT) it goes to about 15 (41.5% to 26.8%).
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
How is voting intention in CABA.
In both tables,
the "liberals" option performs well
: initial 9.9% and with projection of undecided it rises to 11.1%.
When the variants with their own names are raised, there is a striking parity between María Eugenia Vidal (confirmed in JxC) and Leandro Santoro (almost confirmed in the FdT): 27.5% to 25.5% in favor of the former governor.
Jorge Giacobbe's latest poll.
How is the intention to vote in the City.
The other two that stand out are
Ricardo López Murphy
, who will go to internal against Vidal, with 14%;
and
Javier Milei
, the liberal economist who adds 8.7%.
