Many people in this country have already been vaccinated, but the corona pandemic is far from over.
On the contrary: the Robert Koch Institute is calling for many steps to be taken in the cooler months.
Berlin - The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is urging to take preventive measures now because of an estimated increase in corona cases in autumn and winter.
In a strategy paper published on Thursday by the RKI, the RKI wrote in a strategy paper that was published on Thursday and that addresses various scenarios that should be able to keep severe disease progression, deaths and the burden on the health care system low, "and population-related measures should be minimized. However, these should not be understood as predictions, rather the aim is to counteract their occurrence. According to modeling, most infections could affect adults under 60 and children under 12.
Under the assumptions made, there is a slow increase in the occupancy of intensive care units, the seven-day incidence and hospital treatments until October, writes the RKI. This will then accelerate and peak in January / February 2022 before the values fall again. How high the peak values turn out to be depends in the modeling on the assumed vaccination rates and the question of whether people change their behavior and reduce contacts: higher rates and behavioral changes cause the curves to flatten significantly. However, such modeling is fraught with a number of uncertainties.
According to the RKI, the population should be informed “in good time that there could be a heavy burden on the health system again in winter” and possibly a regional or local overload, for example with the so-called ECMO capacity (special machines for patients with severe Lung failure).
Exposure to respiratory infections such as flu and other pathogens is also to be expected, which hardly circulated in the preseason due to contact restrictions.
This also applies to children and young people.
The RKI lists a “successful vaccination campaign”, “classic infection protection measures of the health authorities” and the targeted use of measures as recommendations for action.
The RKI advises, for example, to plan booster vaccinations “now”, especially for the elderly and risk groups.
For example, the scenario is conceivable that in the very old, the longer the time interval between vaccination and vaccination, more infections could occur, so-called vaccination breakthroughs, writes the RKI.
Serious outbreaks could occur in nursing homes.
With regard to schools and daycare centers, the RKI points out, among other things, that construction, structural, organizational and technical measures should be “intensified and completed by the time they open after the summer holidays”.
The institute emphasizes: "The idea of achieving herd immunity in the sense of eliminating or even eradicating the virus" - that is to say, largely pushing back or eradicating it - is not realistic. The aim of the vaccinations is therefore "to achieve broad basic immunity in the population". This mediates extensive individual "protection against (serious) illnesses" and also reduces the virus circulation. A broad basic immunity will probably not yet be achieved this autumn and winter, because the expected vaccination rate of around 70 to 80 percent among adults is not yet sufficient.
The RKI has long been in favor of maintaining the basic rules against corona such as distance, hygiene, mask, ventilation and the corona warning app. The paper states that the number of "infectious contacts" should be further reduced through organizational measures such as the possibility of mobile working and participant restrictions for events. In the case of illness and cold symptoms - not only with regard to Covid-19 - the RKI advises those affected to stay home. dpa