When it comes to Corona, is Germany on the way to a frightening incidence of 800?
Health Minister Spahn warns, an expert classifies this.
Munich - Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn continues to observe the corona situation with a certain concern. The CDU politician was able to announce good news on Thursday (July 22nd). 50.2 million people (60.4 percent) have now received at least one vaccination against the coronavirus. 39.9 million citizens (48 percent) have already received full vaccination protection. Among them are "more than three quarters of the over 60s," said Spahn.
But on Wednesday (July 21), the Minister of Health warned that Germany could face a restless autumn.
The development of the nationwide seven-day incidence, which rose to over 12 on Thursday (July 22nd), prompted Spahn to issue an urgent warning the day before.
"If that continues to double, every twelve days, then we will exceed 400 in September and 800 in October," said the Christian Democrat.
Spahn prognosis: Statistics expert calculates the probability of the 800 incidence
But how likely is such a scenario? Statistics expert Katharina Schüller has dealt with this topic. “The prediction could theoretically come true,” the board member of the German Statistics Society told
Focus.de
. However, the Spahn prognosis must include a decisive factor: the extent to which the immunization of the German population against the coronavirus increases.
Schüller therefore designed two possible scenarios.
On the one hand, the scientist calculated the incidence development with a constant R-value (without the influence of immunization).
Spahn had assumed an initial value of eleven in his calculation.
If this multiplies by a value of 1.5 per week, the incidence could exceed 50 in mid-August, 100 at the beginning of September and over 900 a month later.
Health Minister Spahn's prognosis would have come true - and even clearly exceeded it.
Spahn's 800 incidence forecast: Statistician considers other scenario to be more realistic
Scenario two of the statistics expert took into account the progressive immunization of German citizens. And Schüller considers this scenario to be much more realistic. With increasing immunization, including through corona vaccinations, the growth rate of the incidence would be different. “When the immunization is taken into account, the reproductive rate decreases somewhat,” the researcher described. However, scenario two also forecast a significant increase in the seven-day incidence, but not in the dimensions feared by Spahn.
Schüller assumed that a total of 55 million people would have complete vaccination protection by October.
In addition, an R value of 1.5 served as a starting point.
Then the incidence would still be just below 100 at the beginning of September. Towards the end of the month, the value would clearly exceed 200, but still remain below 300 at the beginning of October.
An exact prognosis for the first few weeks is difficult even for experts like Schüller.
Too many factors that are taken into account change, sometimes significantly.
Among other things, the statistician assumed that the vaccines would be 65 percent effective.
If, for example, new studies yield a new value here, Schüller's calculation would be invalid.
(kh)