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Two months after PASO, 28 surveys under the magnifying glass: how they measure the candidates who sound the most

2021-07-22T06:21:29.812Z


From María Eugenia Vidal and Facundo Manes to Sergio Berni and Leandro Santoro, passing through Diego Santilli, Florencio Randazzo and José Luis Espert. What do people think of the leaders and the analysis of the management in the Province, the City and at the national level.


From María Eugenia Vidal and Facundo Manes to Sergio Berni and Leandro Santoro, passing through Diego Santilli, Florencio Randazzo and José Luis Espert.

What do people think of the leaders and the analysis of the management in the Province, the City and at the national level.

Eduardo Paladini

07/16/2021 6:01 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 07/16/2021 9:24 AM

The shocking figure of 100,000 deaths from coronavirus in Argentina perhaps leaves little margin these days for electoral speculation. Or the opposite? While the country was moved by this sad ranking that recalls the depth of the health crisis, the judicial calendar forced the parties and leaders to register the alliances with which they will

compete on September 12 in the PASO

. And he recalled, in his own way, that there are barely two months until one of the

most atypical

elections

in Argentine history.

How does the Government get to that fight?

How does public opinion view its main leaders, government officials and opponents?

And, above all,

how is the intention to vote in the Nation, Province and City of Buenos Aires, the three key scenarios?

How tall are the loudest candidates?

Clarín

accessed

28 surveys

in recent weeks to

analyze this particular moment:

12 of national scope, 10 from Buenos Aires and 6 from Buenos Aires

.

They are from the consulting

firms Taquion, D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein, Analogías, Management & Fit, Synopsis, Opinaia, Opina Argentina, Projection, Trends, Circuits, Ricardo Rouvier, Zuban Córdoba, Real Time Data, Acierto, Jorge Giacobbe, Clivajes, CB Public Opinion Consultant and OPSA

.

The

diversity of the firms is very wide

: from the pollster that measures for the Kirchners (Analogías), another that has among its clients the government of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (Opinaia), others that measure on both sides of the crack (Management & Fit , Opina Argentina) and even an observatory of the Faculty of Psychology of the University of Buenos Aires (OPSA).

This variety of analysts is reflected, in part, in the dispersion of some numbers.

But coincidences also appear, which leave signs of the

complex moment that the

Alberto Fernández

administration is going through

, not only because of the health disaster but also because of the endless economic standstill.

But these signs are not enough to predict a paved path for the opposition, which has suffered 

its own political ordeal less than two years ago, with Mauricio Macri as its emblem

.


The national fight: Alberto in loss and electoral parity

Twelve of the papers published in recent weeks were national in scope.

And they

confirmed trends

that have been developing in recent months.

The

evaluation of the Government's management

seems to be reaching a floor, after the incessant decline it suffered since the middle of last year.

The

balance today is negative

: the average of the polls measured by the Fernández administration gives it about 40 points in favor and 60 against.

Management evaluation and economic expectations

The key data, based on 8 surveys with surveys throughout the country.

  • Evaluation of the management of Alberto Fernández

  • Evaluation of the current economic situation or compared to a year ago

  • Economic expectations or how the situation will be in a year

But beyond the photo, what is surprising is the film:

the President had achieved unprecedented support at the start of the pandemic

, between March and April 2020, when he even had positive signs from Juntos por el Cambio voters.

Historical medal in the frame of the crack.

It did not last long.

And not only that: with the passing of time, Fernández, in addition to losing that opposition plus, also began to see the accompaniment of the more moderate voters of the ruling party disappear.

It is a group that analysts identify as "the disenchanted

.

"

Images of leaders at the national level

The key data, based on 12 surveys with surveys throughout the country.

Alberto Fernandez

Cristina Kirchner

Axel Kicillof

Sergio Massa

Maximum Kirchner

Mauricio Macri

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

Maria Eugenia Vidal

Patricia bullrich

Elisa Carrió

Facundo Manes

Martin Lousteau

Roberto Lavagna

Florencio Randazzo

Jose Luis Espert

This phenomenon not only affected the view on the management, but also

impacted on the personal image numbers of the president

, who was losing positions almost month by month, and from being the undisputed leader of this type of ranking, he is now mixed in the middle down, with

numbers similar to Cristina's.

Quantitatively and qualitatively

: Fernández is currently supported / sustained by almost the same people who support the vice president.

Fernández's resignation was capitalized by Rodríguez Larreta.

The head of the Buenos Aires government became the top 1 in almost all national image measurements

.

And one of the few - if not the only one - who still boasts the privilege of having more support than rejection.

Without those exorbitant figures from the President of a little over a year ago, but clearly above.

Who is the leader of the opposition

The key data, based on 3 surveys with surveys throughout the country.

  • Tachyon

  • Opinion

  • Management & Fit

Tachyon

Opinion

Management & Fit

The two emblems of the crack, meanwhile, cannot get out of the bottom

: both Cristina and Macri show a differential against their valuation, with very tough positions, both of those who want them and those who reject them (the majority) .

This critical view of politicians is also reflected in the economy.

Even more.

And with a sensitive ingredient.

People, predictably, describe a very complicated current context.

But

most worrying are the pessimistic forecasts

.

The bulk of society - with a preponderance of opponents but also an important group of government officials - believes that the situation will worsen in the near future.

General voting intention by political party

The key data, based on 5 surveys with surveys throughout the country.

  • Front of All

  • Together for Change

  • Liberals

  • Peronism not K

  • Left

  • Others + blank or null + None

  • Ns / Nc

And how does all this uneasiness impact on the intention of the national vote?

The consultants have been measuring in two ways for the STEP.

With a general question (will you vote official or opposition?) Or with a more specific (which space will you vote in these legislatures?). 

General voting intention at the national level

The key data, based on 5 surveys with surveys throughout the country.

  • Officialism

  • Opposition

  • Others + blank or null + None

  • Ns / Nc

The first case serves, above all, to see

the floor of the Government.

Which is clearly below the 48 points he got in the last presidential election

.

Even the consulting firm that measures for the Kirchners gives it below that parameter.

And most place it around 30 or 35 points.

It is more difficult to analyze the opposition in this type of measurement, because its electoral offer is then dispersed.

The fact that there is 50% or even 60% of non-official voting intention does not guarantee an opposition victory 

in the next elections, because it is not clear how that electorate will be distributed.

This is confirmed when the electoral proposal is more detailed, due to political force.

And there, for now,

there is a certain parity between the Front of All and Together for Change

.

Of the five consulting firms that measured at the country level in recent weeks, two predict a tie, two place the ruling party above and one, the main opposition alliance.

But in the three cases in which there is a winner, the gaps are small, between 3 and 5 points, almost a margin of error.

Thus, the scenario is open in the national count, especially due to a level of undecided that averages about 20 points

.

From the rest of the forces, in a second step comes the non-K Peronism and the Liberals (around 5 points) and lower left (between 2 and 3).

The Buenos Aires fight: a lot of dispersion, with an advantage for the Frente de Todos

The

province of Buenos Aires

(almost 40% of the total electorate) is the

most observed

scenario

, one of those measured, but paradoxically one of the ones that shows the most dispersion

in numbers.

In particular, in the electoral bid.

And not only because of how the biggest battle could turn out, between the Front of All and Together for Change, but there are also figures for all tastes regarding the previous one: the internal ones of the PASO.

Voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires

Electoral floors and ceilings of the candidates, based on 1 survey from Buenos Aires (Taquion).

Sergio Berni

Victoria Tolosa Paz

Pedro's Wado

Fernanda raverta

Jorge Macri

Diego Santilli

Emilio Monzó

Jose Luis Espert

Florencio Randazzo

At a general level, both the pollsters and the main forces start from a

hypothesis: it seems almost impossible for the ruling party to repeat the advantage of about 15 points

that it obtained in Buenos Aires territory in the last election.

In Kirchnerism they cling to some studies that give them a gap of between 5 and 10 percent above.

In the opposition, they believe (are they excited?) That the result can be a little more even (worthy defeat?).

Eight consultants made measurements of voting intention by space and one (Taquion), raised two scenarios with different candidates in the main forces.

Of those nine tables,

in six the ruling party appears first, in two Together for Change and one marks a tie

.

Voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires

Data of inmates and candidates by space, based on 4 Buenos Aires surveys.

  • In front of everyone

  • Together for change

OPSA (UBA)

CLIVAJES

Circuits

OPSA

TRENDS

CLIVAJES

Circuits

The dispersion, as said, is enormous: the one that gives the FdT the most advantage places it about 10 points ahead (37.3% to 27.1%), but coexists with another that puts JxC first, even with a difference slightly higher (33.9% to 23.2%).

Voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires

The data by space, based on 8 Buenos Aires surveys.

  • Front of All

  • Together for Change

  • Liberals

  • Peronism not K

  • Left

  • Others + blank or null + None

  • Ns / Nc

This

very wide gap

, with strikingly opposite figures,

also occurs when internal Buenos Aires are measured by space

.

Examples: in one of Kirchnerism,

Sergio Berni

figures with 23.4% and

Daniel Scioli

with 12.6%;

and in another, the minister adds 12.8% and the former governor, 29.2%.

They seem to be asking for different people.

Something similar occurs with the measurements of Together for Change

: in a poll,

Diego Santilli

(PRO) beats

Facundo Manes

(UCR) 28.9% to 10.7%;

but in another, the neuroscientist leads the Buenos Aires deputy chief 24.4% to 18.4%.

Images of the leaders in the province of Buenos Aires

Key data, based on 7 Buenos Aires surveys.

Alberto Fernandez

Cristina Kirchner

Axel Kicillof

Sergio Massa

Maximum Kirchner

Victoria Tolosa Paz

Sergio Berni

Daniel Scioli

Mauricio Macri

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

Maria Eugenia Vidal

Diego Santilli

Jorge Macri

Facundo Manes

Florencio Randazzo

Jose Luis Espert

Nicolas del Caño

Another of the great unknowns is how

Florencio Randazzo

, an emblem of Peronism no K,

can fare this time in Province

.

Is his apartment the 6% he got in 2017?

And your roof?

Can you also add the 11 points that

Sergio Massa got

in that legislative session, when he was the other representative of the moderate PJ?

Una encuesta la da justamente a Randazzo 17 puntos de intención de voto. Pero en otras no llega a 5. Y otro interrogante: lo que termine obteniendo, ¿se lo sacará al oficialismo, a la oposición o un poco a cada uno? 

También hay muchas dudas sobre cómo le puede ir a José Luis Espert, que negoció para entrar en la interna de Juntos por el Cambio pero finalmente presentó una frente propio e irá "por afuera". Un sondeo lo ubica en dos dígitos y en otro no alcanza los tres puntos. Entre los ocho que lo evaluaron, promedia unos 6 puntos. La misma pregunta que para Randazzo. Más allá del número final, ¿le restará todo a la oposición más dura?

La pelea porteña: Juntos por Cambio, ganador cantado ¿por cuánto?


De los tres escenarios electorales que evalúan la mayoría de los consultores, el porteño parece el más claro. Todas las encuestas ubican a Juntos por el Cambio primero y al Frente de Todos en un lejano segundo puesto.

Intención de voto en ciudad de Buenos Aires

Datos de internas y candidatos por espacio, en base a 2 encuestas porteñas.

  • Juntos por el cambio
  • Frente de todos

CLIVAJES

GIACOBBE

CLIVAJES

Pero más allá de que parece no haber misterio con el ganador, la duda es si el macrismo logrará repetir la ventaja de 20 puntos que le sacó Larreta a Matías Lammens en el tramo para jefe de Gobierno o al menos los 17 que obtuvieron Macri-Pichetto sobre los Fernández en la puja presidencial en CABA.

Cuatro encuestadoras midieron en las últimas semanas intención de voto en la Ciudad y los números le sonríen a Juntos por el Cambio, que promedió 43% contra 28% del Frente de Todos. Es decir, una brecha media de 15 puntos

Intención de voto en ciudad de Buenos Aires

Los datos por espacio, en base a 4 encuestas porteñas.

  • Frente de Todos
  • Juntos por el Cambio
  • Liberales
  • Peronismo no K
  • Izquierda
  • Otros + blanco o nulo + Ninguno
  • Ns / Nc

Antes, de todos modos, habrá para entretenerse con la interna de JxC entre María Eugenia Vidal y Ricardo López Murphy. ¿Cuánto del voto duro que pedía a Patricia Bullrich al frente de la boleta podrá captar el economista de origen radical?

No hay sondeos aún (al menos no públicos) que los hayan medido a ellos dos frente a frente. Sí hay parámetros previos, que incluían a Bullrich, también con números dispersos. Uno daba a la ex gobernadora arriba y en otra prevalecía la ex ministra de Seguridad.

En el Frente de Todos, el único que manifestó sus ganas de ser cabeza para diputados nacionales es el legislador Leandro Santoro. En caso de presentarse, será muy difícil que repita los 35 puntos de Lammens (pegado a la boleta de los Fernández). Acaso por esa dificultad, el ministro de Turismo haya confesado que prefiere "preservarse" para volver a intentar por la jefatura de Gobierno en el 2023.

Imágenes de los dirigentes en ciudad de Buenos Aires

Los datos clave, en base a 4 encuestas porteñas.

Mauricio Macri

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

María Eugenia Vidal

Patricia Bullrich

Martín Lousteau

Ricardo López Murphy

Fernán Quirós

Alberto Fernández

Cristina Kirchner

Matías Lammens

Leandro Santoro

Javier Milei

Tanta obsesión con las diferencias tiene su explicación: las distancias que se obtengan en provincia y ciudad de Buenos Aires, y en otros distritos clave como Córdoba, serán determinantes para el conteo nacional. ¿Acertarán esta vez las encuestadoras o quedarán en off side como en 2019? La pelea está lanzada. Con tensión y muchas dudas.

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-07-22

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