07/22/2021 11:35 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 07/22/2021 11:35 PM
Martín Guzmán was categorical:
"Don't worry, we have the dollar under control."
He said it in Olivos, in a conclave with the maximum references:
Cristina, Máximo and Kicillof.
He repeated it on Wednesday at a ministerial meeting:
"We have the ability to shoot
.
"
The meeting in Olivos was two weeks ago;
Between one and the other, the parallel ticket did not stop rising and the alternative financial markets mock the controls.
The BCRA and the Securities Commission –in the middle-
applied a greater cap
and this patch strategy triggered an incipient dollarization that was only expected for August.
The
malpractice of the officials
disturbed the market and many went out to buy dollars.
Alberto asked Miguel Pesce for details.
The head of the BCRA prepares a daily report for the President.
In these papers he reports on “exchange stress” and details ticket purchases and outflows.
Pesce, in the privacy of his team, admits that there is political "concern" about the dollar.
A run could wreck the election.
But he bravado: he
says he has reservations
to stop any bullfight.
At the Casa Rosada - on Wednesday - the top officials ratified the course.
The
"patch" plan
includes four measures:
Defend
a limit of 170 pesos in cash with settlement.
Restrict import approval to a minimum.
There is a strong demand - another Christian déjá vu - for energy.
Sit on the reserves.
Have them available to use at the worst time: a barrage is expected from September.
Among the wolves of Wall Street there are "papers" that specify the following:
between September and November the demand for dollars could exceed US $ 3 billion.
De-dramatize the run on the parallel dollar.
Mercedes Marcó del Pont has already started that unusual story:
"It is an illegal market with little impact."
The head of the AFIP carried out this strategy when she was head of the BCRA.
He failed and Cristina, in the end, kicked her out of the Central.
This Thursday the blue returned to have another record and closed at 185 pesos.
It has been 10 days that it has not stopped climbing.
The new financial dollar "Sinedi" is also trading at 185. A growing market, to circumvent Adrián Cosentino's controls.
Thus, this Thursday
the parallel was only 10 pesos from the fateful ceiling price of $ 195. Argentina
trembled last year.
And only 15 pesos from a number that is politically disturbing: at this rate the dollar could reach - in a couple of weeks - a fateful value of
200 pesos.
Alberto
demanded a brake.
He spoke with Guzmán and finally, with Pesce.
The President expressed the discomfort that exists in the Frente de Todos.
Máximo, Wado de Pedro, Gabriel Katopodis and Santiago Cafiero - the campaign committee -
criticize the passivity of Economía.
The relationship between the two - Guzmán and Pesce -
became tense again
. They avoid confrontations in front of witnesses, but the crosses - with the rise of the dollar - returned to overheat between the Economy and the BCRA. Pesce does not forgive that Guzmán has asked for his head at the end of the year. It happened in a meeting alone between Alberto and the minister. Guzmán does not support that Pesce wants to cut himself: the minister intervenes in the decisions of the BCRA and that rekindles the fight.
Before starting his “mission to Venice”, the minister participated in a key meeting in Olivos.
Guzmán was in front of Cristina, Máximo and Axel Kicillof.
Alberto and Santiago Cafiero were there.
The meeting was to mark the field and focus all economic management to win the elections.
Guzmán countered: he
says that the agreement with the IMF is key, to reassure the dollar.
The Casa Rosada is willing to do "everything" it takes to avoid defeat.
The troika Cristina-Máximo-Kicillof stated that they want
an aggressive “Urn Plan”.
Guzmán promised to carry it forward.
The strategy is remanufactured: increase spending,
issuance, grant social bonds and raises
to try to warm up wages and consumption a bit.
Dollar stocks and price controls.
Give it "pump and pump" and do not brake.
It's all about the old ideas of Axel Kicillof.
Axel implemented a similar plan as minister with Cristina: it was the bomb that was left and Mauricio Macri deactivated badly.
So far the economy has not finished booting.
The “Urn Plan”
has a danger: inflation and the day after the vote count.
First in Olivos there were invoice passes.
The "troika" expressed to Guzmán its dissatisfaction with the economy.
Cristina told him that things were not going well.
Axel and Máximo
criticize the harshness
of Guzmán's
fiscal adjustment
.
Above, Domingo Cavallo congratulated: the “hug of the Bear”.
Top businessmen are uneasy about these plans: they say they put more uncertainty in the economy.
As a whole, they agree that the Casa Rosada will be able to sustain the dollar.
But the following worries them: what will happen after the elections?
Many fear that day and that increases the uncertainty.
The doubts make
their wallets dollarize
and now put pressure on the banknote.
At the UIA of Daniel Funes de Rioja they are concerned and they also spoke again about
legal insecurity.
There is a new Vicentin case underway, which generated memos and alerts among businessmen.
There is also great concern in the Chamber of Commerce and the Chamber of Exporters.
Customs and the Port Administration took measures that imply a
usurpation of property rights against a multinational
that has operated the port for 24 years.
The “multi” Hutchinson Ports had the operation of Terminal 5 and by decision of Silvia Traverso and Jose Beni the activity was blocked.
There are 1,000 workers affected.
The unrest at the UIA is due to one issue: the “multi” appealed to the courts and the court ruled in favor of the company.
Hutchinson continues to pay the fee.
But the seriousness now lies in another issue:
the pair of officials do not want to comply with the court ruling
and are reluctant to restore normality.
The court threatens actions against Customs and the AGP.
Beni responds to Cristina.
Traverso to Marcó del Pont.
The arbitrary attitude of both strengthens the US claim.
Challenges on various fronts
The State Department warned that in Argentina "interventionism" slows down the economy.
The document is broad and compelling.
It confirms what
Clarín
anticipated
: something similar said Janet Yellen privately to Guzmán.
Clarín
reconstructed that the powerful head of the Treasury asked Guzmán to explain what was happening in Argentina.
They don't understand it in Washington.
Now, Cecilia Nicolini's secret letter to Russian officials exposed the
geopolitical motives for buying Sputnik
.
Kicillof - it is known - was the driving force behind these purchases.
The anemia of Moscow in the deliveries alters the Casa Rosada: it complicates the health strategy and also the electoral story of the vaccines.
Alberto had –only– a relief this week.
The President
managed to impose the heads of the list in CABA and the Province.
The agreement was discussed the weekend.
But it was closed on Tuesday in a meeting with Cristina.
It is about
political oxygen
, after a terrible and exhausting semester for Alberto.
Also, of a great political challenge.
Now the President is going to capitalize on the decision.
But it is a strong bet, which has risks: it
will also be responsible, if the vote is elusive and the ruling party suffers a defeat.
Look also
The one who bought dollars earned in the last 30 days four times more than the one who saved in pesos
The basic food basket increased 3.2% in June and a family needed $ 66,488 to avoid being poor
