The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

New electoral poll: at closing hours, key data for the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio

2021-07-23T16:16:09.807Z


It is a study by the UBA that measured the intention to vote in general and in the main internal ones.


Eduardo Paladini

07/23/2021 12:58 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 07/23/2021 12:58 PM

It is discounted that both the

Front of All

and

Together for Change

have defined the main candidates for the

PASO 2021

in the two Buenos Aires.

But within hours of the closing of the lists for the primaries, a survey provides key data in the face of that bid.

It is a new study by the

Observatory of the Faculty of Psychology (OPSA)

of the UBA that measured the electoral scenario in City and Province.

And it leaves key and striking data.

The poll accessed by

Clarín

included a survey of

2,200 cases

between both districts, from July 17 to 20, with a margin of error of +/- 2.1% (

1,400 in PBA and 800 in CABA

).

The report

is divided exactly into two

, and it evaluates both in the City and in the Province the perception of the current situation (health, economic and social), the expectations, the approval / disapproval of national and local administrations, the predisposition to go to vote and the electoral fight itself, with different entries.

The fight in the City


It is the most critical and pessimistic district about the current situation, and that is reflected in almost all the parameters of the survey.

However, strikingly, the

Frente de Todos ends up with (relative) good electoral numbers

.

"How would you rate the country's health, economic and social situation?" Is the first question of the study.

And the balance is all red:

- 48% rate the health situation between bad and very bad, against 26% as good and very good.

- 72% rate the economic situation between bad and very bad, against 7% as good and very good.

- 65% rate the social situation between bad and very bad, against 9% as good and very good.

In all cases it is completed with percentages of "regular".

Survey of the Observatory of Psychology of the UBA.

Voting intention in the city of Buenos Aires.

Afterwards, they are consulted about the evolution expectations of these three situations and

only in the health situation is there optimism

: 49% believe that it will improve somewhat or a lot against 28% who consider that it will get worse.

In the economy and the social situation, however, the balance is clearly pessimistic.

When the

porteños surveyed evaluate the efforts

, it is not surprising that

Alberto Fernández

has more criticism than praise (+ 59% and - 41%), but it is striking that the result for

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

is almost a tie (+ 51% and - 49 %), when in most polls it clearly has more approval than rejection.

When work enters the electoral field, from the start it is asked about the predisposition to vote, and the percentage wanting to go to the polls is high, taking into account the abnormality of the pandemic.

"The next legislative elections in September are mandatory. If they were optional, would you go to vote?"

asks OPSA.

And

79%

answer

yes

, which could anticipate a relatively high attendance in the STEP of 12/9.

Then come the

questions about voting intention

.

First, with the electoral floors and ceilings.

And there you can already see Together for Change in a better position, but not at the Front of All.

Survey of the Observatory of Psychology of the UBA.

Voting intention in the city of Buenos Aires.

- 22% say they will surely vote for JxC (floor) and 27% that they probably would (49% ceiling).

- In the FdT, the floor is higher (24% will surely vote for it) but the ceiling is lower (39%, with 15% probably voting for it).

This table

is completed with the floors and ceilings of Liberals and the Left Front

, which show a low certain vote (6% and 3%, respectively), but an interesting probable vote (22% and 21%).

When the spaces are specified, with 24% undecided, Juntos por el Cambio (35%) is 10 points above the Frente de Todos (25%), about half the distance that both Larreta and Macri-Pichetto achieved in CABA in the October 2019 elections. In this table, the 12 points of the Liberals are also surprising and the FIT reaches 4.

When the undecided are projected, the main forces raise their numbers but the difference almost remains:

46% JxC against 35% of the FdT

.

The Liberals fell one point (11%) and the left rose strikingly to 9%.

The combo is completed with a measurement on the intern of Juntos por el Cambio, between

María Eugenia Vidal

and

Ricardo López Murphy

.

The former governor wins (65%), but the former minister shows a good performance (35%).

The fight in the Province

In Buenos Aires territory, some curious numbers also appear.

In this case, in the projection of

undecided: almost everyone would have a tendency to vote for the Frente de Todos

, which, however, is not enough for the ruling party to win.

"How would you rate the country's health, economic and social situation?" The survey repeated as the first question.

And the balance redder than in CABA:


- 59% rate the health situation between bad and very bad, against 20% as good and very good.

- 78% rate the economic situation between bad and very bad, against 6% as good and very good.

- 73% rate the social situation between bad and very bad, against 8% as good and very good.

Regarding the future, pessimism is also deepening.

In the health situation, the most optimistic, the balance is barely green: + 39% and -35%.

The rest is well stained red.

When the negotiations are consulted, in this case two of the Frente de Todos,

both the president and the governor, garner more criticism than praise

: + 34% and - 66% Fernández and + 35% and - 65% Axel Kicillof. 

The predisposition to vote of Buenos Aires is very similar to that of Buenos Aires: 81% would go even if it was optional.

Survey of the Observatory of Psychology of the UBA.

Voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires.

What about electoral floors and ceilings?

The FdT has a 24% safe vote and 17% probable (41% ceiling) and JxC, 21% and 28% (49% ceiling).

That is, the opposition remains in this area with better expectations, despite being the hub district of the ruling party.

This striking fact is enlarged when the question of voting intention is asked by space and, with 22% undecided, Together for Change is 10 points above the Front of All.

The last parameter: both the Fernández and Kicillof won in 2019 by more than 15 points.

This complex scenario for the ruling party improves a little when the undecided are projected and reduces the gap to only one point: it rises to 40% against 41% of its main rival.

Survey of the Observatory of Psychology of the UBA.

Voting intention in the province of Buenos Aires.

At the end, OPSA messes with the specific measurements of the pre-candidates that sound.

In the case of Juntos por el Cambio, facing a STEP

Diego Santilli (PRO) leads Facundo Manes (UCR)

55% to 45%.

In the Frente de Todos, among six names, the

first is Victoria Tolosa Paz

, who, if there are no surprises, will head the list.

The current official, elected by the President, adds 31% among the voters of the ruling party.

Below are:

Santiago Cafiero

(26%),

Martín Insaurralde

(11%),

Nicolás Kreplak

(10%),

Gabriel Katopodis

(9%),

Daniel Arroyo

(7%) and

Otro

(6%).

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-07-23

You may like

Trends 24h

News/Politics 2024-03-28T06:04:53.137Z

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.