Demographic change in Germany is accelerating.
Immigrants into the labor market are urgently needed to secure the local prosperity.
Cologne - Demographic change is in full swing in Germany. The proportion of the native population of working age is falling, making it increasingly difficult for the economy to fill jobs in offices, factories or hospitals. A current study by the employer-related Institute of the German Economy (IW) shows the drama of the situation. According to this, the number of employable people in all 401 German urban and rural districts is likely to decrease by an average of four percent by 2024.
According to this, the group of 60 to 64 year olds is larger than that of 15 to 19 year olds in all regions.
This means that without immigration, the elderly will leave a gap in the labor market when they retire, which the younger ones on site cannot completely fill.
The institute itself says this should be understood as a thought experiment rather than a prognosis.
Because in reality there is always migration and the labor force participation is also constantly changing.
IW study on the workforce: In Munich, too, the working-age population is falling
From 2014 to 2019, the decline in the labor force potential was primarily an East German problem.
But according to IW, from 2019 to 2024, West Germany and all large cities will also be dependent on immigration in order to keep their working-age population constant.
Since internal migration within Germany is a zero-sum game, qualified immigration from abroad is required to stabilize the workforce.
According to the IW scenario, the Spree-Neisse district in Brandenburg is worst affected, and the workforce is expected to shrink by 10.5 percent by 2024.
This means that for every ten people of working age there would have to be one immigrant in order for the workforce to remain stable.
But it should also hit boom regions.
In Munich city the population of working age is expected to decrease by 0.91 percent, in the district of Munich by 1.5 percent.
In Bavaria, Freyung-Grafenau is the district with the highest minus with a decline of 5.31 percent.
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Immigrants are becoming more and more important to counter the shortage of skilled workers in Germany (symbol photo)
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IW study on the workforce: Net immigration is falling
The results of the IW study are confirmed by a forecast by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) for 2021, as
reported by
the
world
. According to this, the number of workers will decrease by 350,000 this year due to aging. The demographic effect is likely to be comparably high in every year of the current decade. “To cushion that, 300,000 to 400,000 more people would have to immigrate than others,” explains the director of the IAB, Bernd Fitzenberger. But that does not mean that workers of all kinds are needed. Above all, the companies were looking for qualified personnel.
Currently, however, there are significantly fewer.
In 2019, 327,000 more people came to Germany than moved away.
In the pandemic year 2020, Germany's population fell for the first time in nine years, mainly because net immigration was 85,000 lower than in the previous year.
In 2021, only 200,000 more migrants are expected to immigrate than to leave.
IW study on the workforce: the employment rate must be increased
The IW study gives politicians a number of recommendations for action in order to master the situation.
For example, an increase in the employment rate of over 60-year-olds is proposed through more incentives and the removal of obstacles, for example a reduction in the deduction-free pension introduced in 2012 at 63.
Another measure could be to increase the annual working time per employed person, for example by expanding childcare in order to increase the proportion of women who work.
Another possibility would be to increase everyone's annual working hours.
According to IW, the Swiss work an average of two weeks more than the Germans.
In addition, the opportunities offered by digitization should be used to extend working hours and increase productivity, and provide training for the low-skilled.
IW study on labor potential: Qualified immigration must be encouraged
But against the background of the limited domestic German labor potential, according to IW, above all the framework conditions for more qualified immigration should be further improved. Although Germany is popular with international skilled workers, it is in competition with more attractive countries. In order to attract more qualified specialists to the country, correspondence would have to be digitally designed. In order to be able to look for jobs, the application process must be financially supported and entry must be made easier.
Regions from which so far many people have moved should develop a welcoming culture.
New immigrants often choose their place of work on the basis of local social networks of people of the same origin.
Once created, foreign communities often lead to the settlement of further international specialists.
(
mhof
)
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