The beginning of the end

Fernando Vicente

The demonstrations against the Castro regime that took place in various cities and towns in Cuba on July 11 and, more diluted, on July 12, will not end the Cuban Revolution, but they do constitute a considerable advance over its deterioration and final removal from office. After 62 years of progressive impoverishment, the Cuban people, stimulated by the chaos in which the island finds itself, without food, with the uncertainty of the coronavirus and the deterioration of all institutions, without work and a shortage of vaccines and food, has lost the fear. Although the repression, of which the chronicles of the correspondents, among them those of the journalist Mauricio Vicent of EL PAÍS, will be increasing in the following days, weeks and months, it is likely that Cuba will become the typical Latin American military dictatorship, or,Let us knock wood to make it so, in a democracy, as has happened with the satellite republics of the Soviet Union, after the disintegration of the empire founded by Lenin and Stalin.

More information

• The "scream" that has shocked Cuba

There was already some history that things were not going too well for the Castro regime, since the famous "maleconazo" of 1994, and, much more important, when on November 27, 2020 hundreds of intellectuals and artists stood in front of the Ministry of Culture to request that the persecution of the members of the independent San Isidro Movement cease. The gaffes of the new president of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who, in the middle of the agitation in the streets, asked the “revolutionaries” to come out to confront the “mercenaries” —and those were seen parading barefoot and armed with clubs— indicate that, as often happens in totalitarian societies, he will be responsible for what happened, with which his political career, begun with such good auspices under the shadow of Raúl Castro,it will end soon and in the way that usually happens in communist countries: accusing him of everything that happened and stripping him of the sum of his charges. Here is a character who, despite being alive, already smells like a corpse.

Why has the Cuban Revolution lasted so long? Because 62 years is a long time, even for a communist paradise. First of all, because Cuba is an island, that is, a country much easier to guard by a dictatorship than a territory surrounded not by water but by land, and, secondly, by charisma and, let's say it clearly, genius of Fidel Castro, who, pretending, first an advanced social Christianity, then democratic socialism and, lastly, communism, deceived everyone, and was able to shape the island's population little by little at his whim. Without much material success - the per capita income is not higher today than it was when the Batista dictatorship - but there was not then the distribution of poverty that exists today in the country, with the exception of the high Party officials,who enjoy many privileges and are undoubtedly very unpopular, as evidenced by the whistle to Commander Ramiro Valdés, twice Minister of the Interior, who had to retire before the crowd that whistled at him chanting "Homeland and life" and freedom.

That word, freedom, has resonated with force these days in the demonstrations in the cities and towns of Cuba, although it was already heard, often, in its digital press, quite free, by the way, and that is why the first measure What the Government took, when the protests began, was to block access to Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram and Telegram, which, now, the United States Government is trying to restore for the entire island.

The accusations of the Cuban Government, and of its satellites in the rest of the world, have been to the embargo that the United States has imposed on the island, which, after being attenuated by President Obama, was later aggravated by Trump, and has been again, now, with Biden. What does this embargo consist of? In that the United States Government prohibits its businessmen from investing in Cuba, and makes it difficult - but does not prevent - its residents and citizens from traveling to the island on vacation, as any country that feels affected by the provisions of another has the right to do. ; in the Cuban case, for the many companies and lands that were nationalized by the Revolution without the United States receiving compensation for it. The United States does allow the sale of food and medicine, and the sending of remittances in dollars to the island,which makes it an important commercial partner of Cuba.

The embargo has gone through different alternatives, but, in general, it has served the Cuban Government to miraculously explain that, because of it, the Revolution has never been able to take off economically. She lived on the charity of the USSR for many years —in fact, while she existed—, so lifting the famous North American embargo would not be an act of justice and reciprocity, but rather a form of aid to the incompetence of the Castro government. , and, now, Diaz-Canel. When socialism does not work, something prototypical happens: capitalism, the cause of all possible evils in the history of humanity, must come to save it from its own incompetence. It has not stopped happening in all societies transformed by Marxism-Leninism.

What is going to happen now in Cuba? It will depend on the repression. The smartest thing for the regime would be to open the floodgates and let the opposition express its desire for freedom, thus gradually appeasing it and perhaps dying out. In the worst case, if the repression grows, it will exacerbate this libertarian spirit, until it, which is already or will soon be the majority in the nation, ends up exploding, dragging the Army, the island's armed force. But, from the information sent by the correspondents, everything indicates that, with greater demonstrations, greater repression will come. Still, at the time of writing, the authorities have not said how many people have been detained. They indicate a single death, although the physical torture has been numerous, judging by the testimonies that have managed to reach Western countries.The most dramatic, undoubtedly, that of the young wife who spent the day touring police stations, without acknowledging having her husband as a prisoner in any of them, and that of the young man tortured by an officer who kicked him - smashed his arm - yelling at him “ mercenary!"

What can be done to help Cubans in their — finally — just fight for Cuban freedom? Everything that is said in their favor is positive, but we must be aware that all criticisms will be answered by the small minorities that still see in communism the salvation of the West from the inequalities and corruptions that corrode it, and that - the worst thing is that many believe it - it will come from the radical socialism that they advocate, without assuming that there has only been failure after failure in that model that still relies on a state-controlled economy, or, as is currently the case in China and Russia, in practicing a Buddy capitalism, which allows discreet businessmen to get rich with privileged companies, in a supposedly free competition regime. This system will also fail - it has already failed in Russia, no doubt,and tomorrow it will be in China if it adopts it — because, without true free competition and the possibility of acting without the straitjacket of the State, it is difficult for the creative vision of the free enterprise system to prevail.

The most important thing is that Cuba has already begun to take to the streets to protest.

It has happened in many cities and towns where the human tide - we have seen it on television - exceeded the official forces sent to suppress it.

Throughout the following months, everything indicates that, with more repression, there will be more demonstrations of freedom.

In the long run, the Cuban people will triumph, and hopefully it will be to regain their freedom and not violate it again as has happened lately in so many Latin American countries.

World press rights in all languages ​​reserved to Ediciones EL PAÍS, SL, 2021. © Mario Vargas Llosa, 2021.