Is there a lockdown in the fall?
The corona situation in Germany is a cause for concern.
Pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr sees no more chance for herd immunity.
Saarbrücken - The corona pandemic is picking up speed again.
The incidence has been rising slowly but steadily for weeks.
Experts fear a fourth corona wave in autumn.
“The exponential growth is in full swing.
And the numbers will now continue to rise, ”said Saarbrücken pharmacy professor Thorsten Lehr of the dpa news agency in Saarbrücken.
This was the result of the latest calculations by the “Covid Simulator” at Saarland University.
The “Covid Simulator” calculates the infection rate throughout Germany and also provides forecasts for the individual federal states through to the districts.
At the end of February 2021, Lehr had given a gloomy forecast for the third wave.
If growth continues as it does now, then an incidence of 150 is expected by the end of September.
“So by then we would see the incidence increase tenfold.
You have to call that a new wave, ”says Lehr.
Herd immunity before the end?
"I don't think she can be reached."
In view of the current corona situation, Thorsten Lehr sees no chance of achieving herd immunity in Germany.
"I don't think she can be reached."
Among other things, there are far too few vaccinations and willingness to vaccinate, said the expert on corona forecasts.
For herd immunity and thus a successful containment of the pandemic, 85 percent of Germans would have to be vaccinated or recovered - i.e. immune.
But the number of vaccinations in Germany is currently going “really massively”, he said.
Especially those of the first vaccinations.
In Germany around half of the population is fully vaccinated.
The low-threshold access to vaccination offers will now be "very important": "The mountain has to come to the prophet." In addition, one also has to "go into groups" that have not yet been vaccinated - like the 12 to 15 year olds.
According to Lehr, between 60 and 70 percent of all new infections affect 15 to 35-year-olds.
The more contagious Delta variant makes up a total of almost 90 percent of the cases.
Lehr said that as the incidence rose, he saw a "relatively great risk that breakthrough variants could develop".
Remove the mask requirement in Germany?
But: Even if the vaccination pace picked up speed again, this would not help much at the moment because of the delay - i.e. until the vaccinations were fully effective.
"That is why we should see above all that we do not relax all measures," said the expert.
The basic rules and the mask requirement should be retained - and under no circumstances should all measures be overboard, as in Great Britain.
“Hospital occupancy has already risen dramatically there.
It will be drastic there. "
The number of Covid-19 patients in clinics is increasing
In Germany, Lehr expects a renewed increase in hospital occupancy with Covid patients.
"We are already seeing that in some federal states." There is certainly a shift towards patients "who do not die very quickly".
But the fact remains that they are likely to have a difficult course.
And: There will also be more deaths among younger patients.
"Our aim is to stir up and educate"
It is not about spreading panic, emphasized the professor.
“We want to stir up and enlighten.” Because it is the responsibility of each individual.
“This is not a deluge that is coming over us and we cannot change anything.
We are in control of what happens.
That's why we have to make sure that we don't oversleep this summer like we did last summer. "
Pharmacy professor: 7-day incidence important for assessing the corona situation
It is for adhering to the 7-day incidence as a value for assessing the corona situation.
They show the infection rate and the viral load in the population.
The factor of hospitalization occurs with a delay to the cases.
Lehr said he had previously believed that Germany would get through the fourth wave without a lockdown.
"I'm not sure now whether we don't need any measures." A lot also depends on politics.
“It's the federal election in September.
I think the federal election will come with unsightly incidences in combination. ”
(Dpa / ml) * Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
