Antoine Bristielle is director of the Opinion Observatory of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, associate professor of social sciences and researcher at Sciences Po Grenoble.
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The images were quite impressive.
In the middle of July, the demonstrations organized in many cities of France against the extension of the health pass brought together 161,000 people according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior.
Far from being anecdotal, support for this mobilization is also quite diffuse, with a large third of the French population expressing either its support or its sympathy for the movement.
For some commentators, this mobilization is strongly reminiscent of the yellow vests movement and would be able to criticize the government and the President of the Republic, in the same way that the yellow vests did in the fall and winter of 2018. However, is such a hypothesis credible?
The more a person identifies with or supports the yellow vests movement, the more their attitude towards the anti-health pass movement will be positive.
Antoine Bristielle
Anti-pass and yellow vests, between similarities and differences
It is first of all quite striking to note that the movement of the yellow vests and that against the sanitary pass have quite similar characteristics. From a sociological point of view on the one hand, opponents of the health pass like the yellow vests are more present within the working classes than in the upper classes. At the political level on the other hand, the abstainers as well as the voters of the National Rally and of France Insoumise are overrepresented there. It is therefore not a surprise that the correlation between the attitude expressed towards the two movements is strong. The more a person identifies with or supports the yellow vests movement, the more their attitude towards the anti-health pass movement will be positive.
If certain bridges between the two movements can be observed, it is also necessary to consider certain significant differences between the two movements. While the movement of yellow vests was particularly well received in rural communities, the famous "
peripheral France
», The opposition to the health pass is spreading in a much more equitable way on the territory. Support for the movement is thus almost similar in the Paris area (32%) in provincial urban municipalities (36%) and in rural areas (34%). On the other hand, the Yellow Vests presented an older profile than the anti-pass, more strongly represented among 25-34 year olds (57% of support or sympathy). Another major difference, while the yellow vests movement was born around issues of equality and social justice, the movement against the health pass is focused around issues of freedom.
The most formidable scenario for the government would be for the movement to take the form of a much more global challenge to the institutional configuration and the relationship between power and citizens.
Antoine Bristielle
Towards an aggregation of popular anger?
The significant success of the yellow vests movement was explained by its ability to federate popular anger. Starting from a contestation of a fuel tax, ultimately relatively insignificant compared to the scale of other economic and social measures put in place in the last ten years, the movement had transformed into an extremely broad criticism of the relationship between power and citizens. Putting the Citizen Initiative Referendum at the center of its demands, it constituted a purely "populist" movement - in the scientific sense of the term - opposing the people to corrupt elites. However, within a France which largely shared this observation, the movement had met with a particularly important echo, 7 French out of 10 expressing support or sympathy in the heart of the movement.
If the predictions are of course very complicated, the future of the movement against the sanitary pass, perhaps in four different forms, each time presenting an additional problematic for the power in place. A first scenario of a movement focused on the health issue can be grafted a second scenario where the criticism would be much more global towards the health policy of the government. Such a hypothesis is far from improbable, in particular if the government has to put in place other braking measures (early closures of bars and restaurants, curfews, etc.) in parallel with the health pass, which could be considered highly inconsistent by a large part of the French. The third scenario would see a dispute go beyond the health issue,to join an opposition to the economic and social policy of Emmanuel Macron. The fact that the President of the Republic chose to speak during his last speech both on the health past and on the future pension reform, however extremely contested, may give some pledges to this theory. Finally, the last scenario, the most formidable for the government, would be for the movement to take the form of a much more global challenge to the institutional configuration and the relationship between power and citizens.expressing in his last speech both on the health past and on the future pension reform, however extremely contested, can give some pledges to this theory. Finally, the last scenario, the most formidable for the government, would be for the movement to take the form of a much more global challenge to the institutional configuration and the relationship between power and citizens.expressing in his last speech both on the health past and on the future pension reform, however extremely contested, can give some pledges to this theory. Finally, the last scenario, the most formidable for the government, would be for the movement to take the form of a much more global challenge to the institutional configuration and the relationship between power and citizens.
The yellow vests movement wanted to keep a horizontal structure at all costs, fighting fiercely against attempts at recovery.
Antoine Bristielle
An opportunity structure for opposition parties
The yellow vests movement had wanted to keep a horizontal structure at all costs, fighting fiercely against attempts at recovery and supporting the “yellow vests” lists as timidly as possible during the elections. At this level, the issue of the health pass is currently much more directly linked to partisan politics, the National Assembly opposing it, as well as France Insoumise which has widely publicized its opposition within the National Assembly. . But it is above all the figure of Florian Philippot, at the head of the Patriots movement, which has emerged in recent weeks at the head of the Parisian procession. Following his failure to impose Euroscepticism in the public debate, the former right-hand man of Marine Le Pen isis recycled in the systematic contestation of the health measures put in place by the government.
However, the impact of this partisan politicization of the movement can be questioned. If the fact of having relays within the political sphere can be an asset for a movement lacking spokesperson, it goes against the horizontal form of this new type of social movements. From there to make the movement collapse?
