The corona pandemic is picking up speed again.
Politicians are warning of a violent fourth wave in autumn - also because of the slowing rate of vaccinations.
How realistic are such forecasts?
Berlin - In the middle of summer, which actually invites you to vacation and relax, a concern is growing in Germany: It's about the increasing number of new corona infections - and what that could mean for the approaching autumn.
One fear: many freedoms that have only recently been regained may soon disappear.
In view of the corona development, Chancellery Minister Helge Braun (CDU) brought up restrictions for non-vaccinated people on the weekend.
The number of infections is currently increasing by 60 percent every week, Braun said.
By the end of September there could be 100,000 new infections per day and a seven-day incidence of 850: That would be a multiple of the previous maximum of around 30,000 new infections within 24 hours in mid-December.
The incidence has been rising for almost three weeks: According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on Tuesday morning, it was 14.5 - the previous day the value was 14.3 and the most recent low on July 6th was 4.9.
According to the RKI, around half of Germans are now fully vaccinated against the virus.
A few days ago, the President of the Society for Virology (GFV), Ralf Bartenschlager, spoke of slow but steady growth in view of the numbers at the time.
"The situation would develop in our country with as much dynamism as in other countries if all measures were lifted now," said the virologist from Heidelberg University.
Spain and the Netherlands recently showed how fast it can go.
Since (today) Tuesday they have been considered Corona high incidence areas.
The incidence on Mallorca last Friday was 365, in the Netherlands around 360. There the government pulled the emergency brake a good two weeks ago and reversed some easing.
"It is quite likely that there will be a fourth wave in the incidences in autumn," wrote mobility researcher Kai Nagel in a blog at the TU Berlin on Monday in view of the development. According to his calculations, this development will be reflected in the hospitals with a time lag. In relation to the German Press Agency, Nagel speaks of two processes - “namely a largely independent wave in schools after the school opens and a wave in adults”.
While a wave in schools could be contained with the well-known corona measures - such as testing, ventilation or masks - a high dynamic can be expected in adults, explains Nagel. This is due to the fact that the number of fully vaccinated people in this country is too low. In addition, the vaccination does not prevent infections - and thus also their transmission - in the Delta variant as well as in most other mutants.
In Nagel's blog post, one looks in vain for scenarios with an incidence of more than 800, as feared by Chancellery Minister Braun. In the event of a new wave, however, it is important to keep the increase in incidences as low as possible. In general, he emphasized in response to a dpa request, models for the spread of the virus are “more likely to be possible scenarios than predictions in the narrower sense”. And in principle, extreme predictions are more likely to be heard than moderate predictions, says Nagel.
A look at Israel shows that even comparatively good vaccination progress does not protect against worsening of the corona situation.
More than 57 percent of the 9.3 million residents are fully vaccinated.
Nevertheless, the number of infections has increased massively there since mid-June.
According to official information, this was probably initially caused by returnees from abroad who had broken their quarantine.
Among the newly infected in Israel are many younger people and also those who are fully vaccinated.
In the UK, too, the number of new infections every day has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Nevertheless, in the largest part of the country, England, almost all measures such as mask requirements, distance requirements or the number of events were lifted.
"A very controversial large-scale experiment has started in England, from which we may be able to draw lessons for Germany," said the virologist Bartenschlager. "For example on the question of the incidence at which the situation in hospitals becomes problematic in a partially vaccinated population." Dpa