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Corona vaccination in Bavaria:
There are currently enough vaccination opportunities in industrialized countries - in developing countries, the lack of access threatens the economic recovery, warns the IMF
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Nicolas Armer / dpa
The Corona crisis is further exacerbating global inequality: the rich industrial countries, including Germany, will recover faster and grow faster than previously expected, predicts the International Monetary Fund IMF in its latest outlook on the global economic situation. By contrast, the outlook for many poorer developing and emerging countries has deteriorated compared to the last forecast.
The reason for the different developments is the different access to corona vaccines, explained the IMF.
"Faster than expected vaccination campaigns and a return to normal have led to upgrades, while the lack of access to vaccines and repeated waves of Covid-19 have resulted in downgrades in some countries, especially India," said IMF economist
Gita Gopinath
(49 ).
"The global economic recovery continues, but with a wider gap between developed economies and many emerging and developing countries."
IMF downgrades India for lack of access to vaccines
According to the forecast presented on Tuesday, the global economy is expected to grow by a strong 6 percent this year. This corresponds to the previous outlook from April, but the composition of the growth has changed: The plus for the industrialized countries should amount to 5.6 percent, 0.5 percentage points more than assumed in April. In contrast, the forecast for developing and emerging countries for 2021 has been lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3 percent.
According to the IMF, the pattern will continue in 2022.
The world economy is expected to grow by 4.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points more than assumed in April.
The development is to be driven by growth of 0.8 percentage points in the industrialized countries (4.4 percent), mainly due to higher government spending in the USA and the EU.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the emerging and developing countries, in turn, is expected to grow by 5.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the April estimate.
The global economic recovery "is not guaranteed until the global pandemic has hit back," Gopinath said.
The USA is expected to grow by 4.9 percent in 2022, Germany by 4.1 percent
According to the forecast, the USA will again be the major growth engine of the global economy this year.
The world's largest economy will grow by 7 percent because of the successful vaccination campaign and a massive stimulus package.
That would be the strongest growth in a generation.
For the coming year, the IMF has increased its forecast by 1.4 percentage points to 4.9 percent.
Germany's economy is also expected to grow more strongly in 2022: After a forecast of 3.4 percent in April, the IMF is now assuming growth of 4.1 percent.
For this year, a further increase of 3.6 percent is expected.
The losers in the latest forecast include the states of Asia, which recently had to wrestle with a new corona wave.
In addition to India, these are Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia.
The growth forecast for China has also been lowered, but mainly due to decreasing government support for the economy.
The second largest economy is expected to grow by 8.1 percent this year, 0.3 percentage points less than assumed in April.
Next year there should be an increase of 5.7 percent.
Inflation rates rise in 2021, inflation forecast increased for 2022
The comparatively high IMF growth forecast for the global economy is partly due to the fact that many countries experienced a recession of historic proportions in the previous year due to the Corona crisis and are now catching up again.
According to the IMF, the global economy collapsed by a historic 3.2 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic.
At the same time, the IMF expects consumer prices to rise sharply worldwide, but warns the central banks against a swift departure from the policy of cheap money.
Accordingly, prices in the industrialized countries are likely to increase by an average of 2.4 percent this year.
In April the fund had only assumed 1.6 percent.
For 2022, the forecast has been increased from 1.7 to 2.1 percent.
"Central banks should generally overlook temporary inflationary pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity about the underlying price dynamics," advised the fund.
This must be well explained by the monetary authorities so that inflation expectations do not solidify.
"However, there is a risk that the temporary pressure will continue and the central banks will have to take preventive measures," the IMF admitted at the same time.
wed / DPA / Reuters