Eduardo Paladini
07/28/2021 10:34 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 07/28/2021 10:34 AM
It is a premature, distant comparison of the
fight for 2023
. But updated by the protagonists themselves, who decided to play in the 2021 elections with a carom that also benefits them within two years. A
new poll
accessed by
Clarín
compared the images
of two of the leaders of
Juntos por el Cambio
who already bleached their presidential dreams: the macrista
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
and the radical
Facundo Manes
. They were evaluated province by province. And they included a third political ingredient with national aspirations on the menu:
Patricia Bullrich
.
The study is by
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
, a firm with origins in Córdoba that does work throughout the country and is characterized precisely by its district-by-district surveys.
This Tuesday
Clarín
advanced part of its latest report, with the evaluations of the 24 governors in the places where they manage.
Patricia Bullrich, in an act of agricultural producers on July 9.
She also warned that she wants to run for the presidency.
It was precisely in that table that
Larreta
fell to seventh place, even though it still has very good image numbers in the City.
How did you compare to Manes and Bullrich?
The head of the Buenos Aires government continues to be the national leader with the highest rating in the entire country. At least today and on average. That is very clear in the hand in hand with the owner of the PRO. But with the neuroscientist the comparison is more complex: Manes has a lower level of knowledge, but also shows more positive weighting than negative in most of the provinces.
In other words, the radical is a
potential risk for Larreta's presidential plans
.
Is that why you want to take him off the field by facing him with Diego Santilli in the PASO de JxC in the province of Buenos Aires?
The best and worst of Larreta
As in other polls, the head of government offers a plus that few national leaders can exhibit today.
In general, combine more supports than rejections.
In the balance of the
CB
study
, it ends with a
differential in favor of image in 17 provinces
and in only seven a more negative than positive sum.
The other added value of Larreta, in this case shared with colleagues from the opposition, is its
good performance in the urban and most populated districts of the country
.
The four provinces where the mayor of Buenos Aires has the
best image
are among the five with the most voters: the
two Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Mendoza
.
Except for the Buenos Aires territory, these are centers with a strong anti-K profile.
The
only district that falls outside of this logic is Santa Fe
(third with the most voters in the country): it appears 13th in Larreta's ranking.
How tall are you in these five key provinces for any candidate?
1st City of Buenos Aires: + 64% positive and - 34.7% negative.
2nd Mendoza: + 58.6% and - 30.8%.
3rd Córdoba: + 58.2% and - 28.2%.
4th Province of Buenos Aires: + 54.4% and - 40.3%.
13 ° Santa Fe: + 43.8 and - 41.3%.
The
other 12
provinces where
Larreta's
image balance
ends
in its favor
are:
Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Neuquén, Misiones, Río Negro, Tucumán, La Rioja, Chaco, San Luis, Salta, Catamarca and Santiago del Estero.
By rule,
the worst
of the head of Government is in
La Pampa
,
plus six
districts between medium and small, from the North and the South:
San Juan, Formosa, Chubut, Tierra del Fuego, Santa Cruz and Jujuy
.
The latter is curious, since it is a province governed six years ago by an ally of Larreta: the radical Gerardo Morales.
In addition,
in Jujuy
, the head of government has the
lowest level of knowledge / greatest disinterest
: when asked about his image, the "ns / nc" reached 28%.
The best and worst of Manes
As an
outsider
of politics, the neuroscientist who became known for his medical and academic work, and for having operated on Cristina Kirchner years ago,
starts with a plus
: as explained from the start, his figure also arouses more support than rejection.
In this plus he even surpasses Larreta: Manes only ends up with a
negative
image
differential
in three provinces:
Jujuy, Salta and Formosa
.
In the other 21, he looks good.
Within that map with a green balance, another advantage for Manes is that where he does best is where he will be a candidate: the populous province of Buenos Aires. There it adds 45.1% in favor and only 26.2% against.
Below is
CABA
, with + 45 and - 24.5%.
That is, in the two central districts its positive image doubles the negative.
And the trend is repeated at different scales in
Mendoza, Entre Ríos
(fifth and sixth province with the most voters, where it combines + 39.4% and - 19.2%, and + 39.4% and - 21.1%) and
Córdoba
(second, with + 35.7% and - 21.2%).
But there, as you can see, their numbers (although favorable) begin to be lower.
Basically because their level of knowledge drops.
This
may be your Achilles heel today but an opportunity tomorrow
.
Although there is also a question: if this is the image of Manes as a neuroscientist, what will happen when they start to see him as a politician?
In the poor areas of the North, meanwhile, the most complicated thing for the radical comes. In addition to the negative balance in the three mentioned, their numbers are even and with a high level of ignorance in
Santiago del Estero, Catamarca and La Rioja
.