Can the SPD really say no?
Again and again it is said that everything is open in this federal election campaign. A CDU Chancellor Armin Laschet is most likely. But a green Chancellor Annalena Baerbock at the head of a traffic light is anything but impossible. And the mistakes that the two candidates made recently made a coalition under the leadership of SPD candidate Olaf Scholz again appear conceivable. Black-green, Jamaica, traffic lights, even red-green-red - everything should work, only one coalition model is always and by (almost) everyone described as completely excluded: the German coalition.
Why actually? At first glance, the reasons seem clear: the fact that the battered SPD will once again enter a union-led government alliance seems completely out of the question. The fact that social democracy even went back to this model in 2018 has cost the careers of some of its most prominent front people in the short and medium term, think of Martin Schulz or Andrea Nahles. Conversely, today's party vice Kevin Kühnert also owes his rise to the anti-Groko campaign that he led. And ultimately the Germany coalition is a Groko with an affiliated FDP.
So never Groko again? Never, never, never? Or maybe as an exception and only in the greatest need? Behind closed doors, politicians from all parties in this phantom coalition let it be known that there are already one or two arguments for them. Let's start with the latest figures: An Insa survey for the "Bild" newspaper just revealed that black-green no longer has a majority - but a three-party alliance like the German coalition. That sounds like more than a castle ghost Hui Buh.
And if you are looking for fans of this model, you will not find them in the last row of the parties: CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt has already publicly announced his sympathy for the German coalition, and FDP leader Christian Lindner does not seem to miss any opportunity these days, content and to set personal tips against the Greens. That Lindner would have a huge desire for a traffic light coalition under Baerbock's leadership cannot be inferred from his appearances. And in the last Jamaica negotiations in 2017, people like Dobrindt and, ultimately, Lindner showed that they can easily break negotiations. And both should know that the supporters of the CSU and FDP would not necessarily lapse into mourning if an alliance with the Greens did not work out.
So the question remains about the SPD: Can the party finally say no to government responsibility? According to everything you hear in Berlin, the people who currently hold leading positions in the government and the Bundestag in the SPD do not want to live without posts. The dream of renewing the opposition that the Kühnert team propagates, the hope of a strong comeback in four years, i.e. after four years of no political influence, is an illusion, they say. So the crucial question will be how much these officials have to say after the election. How much weight would an election loser Olaf Scholz have? Hubertus salvation? Or would a Kevin Kühnert displace the old man and woman relationships? Admittedly, the German coalition does not have great chances.But the ghost still seems surprisingly vital.
What's new in Republic 21?
In our SPIEGEL project “Republic 21” for the super election year, we deal with the major political and social issues of our time.
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You will hear here from Thursday what strategic considerations are behind this and what the Bundeswehr can actually achieve abroad.
On Thursday at 3 p.m. Instagram is about the reality of life for people with disabilities in Germany.
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Inclusion activists then questioned the facility accommodation of people with disabilities on social networks.
But what could alternatives be?
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Among other things, SPIEGEL editor Sophia Schirmer talks about this with the activist and consultant for inclusion and anti-discrimination, Luisa L'Audace.
What the polls say
The corona mood threatens to tip over: Satisfaction with the federal government's corona management, which had risen constantly since April, has been falling again for a few weeks now - so since the delta variant has spread and the number of infections is slowly increasing again.
The change in mood can also be seen in the specific question about the corona measures: In April, 64 percent of those surveyed in the surveys by our partner Civey stated that the measures were insufficient for them.
By June this number had shrunk to 28 percent - now dissatisfaction is rising again.
At the same time, the number of vaccinations is stagnating, and this is where things get really interesting: In the latest Civey survey for SPIEGEL, a narrow majority of those questioned were in favor of compulsory vaccination.
51.9 percent answered with “yes, definitely” or “more or less yes”.
Another number is interesting for Armin Laschet, who had just spoken out against too much pressure on those unwilling to vaccinate: The greatest approval for compulsory vaccination is there with almost 62 percent among the voters of the Union, and in the age group 65 +, which traditionally also has a high affinity for the CDU and CSU.
Should Laschet have bypassed his core clientele on the subject?
Interestingly, a clear majority of those questioned were also very skeptical when asked whether an incentive system could increase willingness to vaccinate, e.g. whether discounts on certain services could induce more people to vaccinate.
Almost 66 percent of those questioned answered this with “no, definitely not” or “rather no”.
Economic studies point to the opposite, as my colleague Stefan Kaiser recently pointed out in a comment: A € 100 vaccination bonus from tax money, Stefan writes, is money well invested, even if the total could grow to € 7 billion.
Because the alternative, a renewed lockdown with the known enormous economic damage, would be much more expensive.
The constituency of the week: # 226
Alexander Dobrindt thinks he represents one of the most beautiful constituencies in Germany in the Bundestag.
Now the CSU regional group leader is known for making great sounds, but in this case it is difficult to contradict him.
At least that's the opinion of my colleague Florian Gathmann, who was out and about with Dobrindt in the Garmisch-Partenkirchen district at the beginning of the week, which together with the Weilheim-Schongau district forms constituency 226.
In Dobrindt's homeland you will not only find Germany's highest mountain with the Zugspitze, but also a lot of other imposing peaks, gorges (this is what they call gorges whipped through by wild water), which with the lush green of forests and meadows become an Upper Bavarian postcard Complement idyll.
The constituency, in the hands of the CSU since 1949, was represented by Franz Josef Strauss for the first 30 years or so. Dobrindt has won him directly since 2002 and he should succeed again this year: He was first general secretary of his party, then Federal Minister of Transport, is now the most important Christian socialist in the federal government as a regional group leader and is even running as the CSU top candidate in the federal elections this year. And Dobrindt, who is very busy in Berlin, at least that's what his colleague Gathmann had, seems to be quite present in his home country: "Alex", as he is called here, knows Hinz and Kunz around the Zugspitze.
Of course, his opponents have a hard time in the fight for the direct mandate, most of them ended up in the single-digit percentage range.
But against the new SPD candidate, Dobrindt may have to work at least a little this year: Sigrid Meierhofer was mayor of Garmisch-Partenkirchen for years.
And the Greens opponent Elisabeth Löwenbourg-Brzezinski, born in Munich, was previously an investment banker, so shouldn't arouse any reservations among local entrepreneurs.
The social media moment of the week
"If you don't get vaccinated today, you shouldn't complain tomorrow if you're not invited to the party," said Jens Spahn recently.
But what if different rules apply to different parties?
A video of the singer Nena caused a stir on the internet this week, who at an open-air concert in Berlin called on her fans to leave their corona-compliant boxes from beverage crates and celebrate with her in front of the stage, close together.
When she got into trouble with the organizer, who threatened to cancel the concert, the singer complained over the microphone that completely different crowds had celebrated even closer together on the recent Christopher Street Day (CSD) in Berlin.
Nevertheless, their concert is canceled soon afterwards.
In fact, in the photos from the CSD, you can see a quasi Nena position to the power of two, and not just from Berlin: tens of thousands of people are shuffling through the streets close together without masks.
The whole Nena process has the colleague Jenni Zylka from Tagesspiegel described here in more detail.
Nena's contribution to containing the corona pandemic has so far been »not helpful«, as the Chancellor would say: In a social media post, she showed sympathy for the lateral thinkers and encouraged her fans to »freely decide« whether they want to wanted to get vaccinated.
But your reference to the CSD is justified: It is difficult to understand why a happy party with a good 60,000 people should be allowed largely without distance and masks, but a demonstration or a concert with a significantly smaller number of participants is strictly controlled.
Certainly, "there is no equality in the wrong", you hear this sentence in law school in the first semester.
But too much inequality creates strife.
The stories of the week
I would particularly like to recommend these politically relevant stories from our capital city office to you:
But no party for vaccinated people?
My colleague Milena Hassenkamp summarized the debate on freedoms and vaccination requirements.
Tessa Ganserer, trans woman and green member of the state parliament in Bavaria, is fighting for her new female first name to be on the ballot paper.
Sophie Garbe spoke to her.
The N-word and its story: My colleague Markus Feldenkirchen interviewed the Green Vice-Chair Ricarda Lang about the latest slip of her Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock in his program “Top talk”.
Heartfelt,
Your Melanie Amann
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