The clear lead is crumbling, the Union is slowly starting to swim.
If the Chancellor were directly elected, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would currently run for the Chancellery.
Berlin - SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has overtaken Union candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) according to a recent poll in the electorate.
If the Chancellor in Germany could be directly elected, 20 percent of the participants in an online survey carried out by the opinion research institute YouGov between July 23 and 26 would choose the current Minister of Finance, Scholz.
15 percent would elect NRW Prime Minister Laschet, 13 percent would vote for the Green Party and Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.
Wrong positions of Laschet and Scholz
The positions of Laschet and Scholz have thus been reversed.
A month earlier, the Union candidate had been at 21 percent, his competitor from the SPD at 16 percent.
Baerbock fell 2 percentage points.
One possible explanation is the actions of Laschet after the devastating floods in mid-July in North Rhine-Westphalia, where he drew criticism for a failed performance.
The Chancellor is not directly elected in Germany.
Instead, parties will be on the ballot for the federal election on September 26th, some of which will negotiate the formation of a coalition after the election.
The governing parties usually hold a majority of the seats in the Bundestag.
As a rule, the strongest party also provides the head of government.
Union continues to be clearly ahead of the SPD and the Greens
In the answer to the question “If there was a general election next Sunday, which party would you vote?”, The CDU / CSU scored 28 percent (minus two points compared to the previous month), the SPD (plus 1) and the Greens (minus 3) were tied at 16 percent.
AfD and FDP were each able to improve by one point to 12 percent.
The left would have eight percent (plus 1).
Election polls are generally always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. YouGov states a statistical error tolerance of 2.1 percentage points (with a proportion of 30 percent) and 1.0 points (with a proportion of 5 percent). In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the outcome of the election. dpa