Eduardo Paladini
08/01/2021 9:33 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/01/2021 9:33 AM
Of the three major scenarios that the consulting firms have been measuring so far in the face of the
2021 elections
, Buenos Aires seemed the clearest, with a considerable advantage for
Juntos por el Cambio
. That predictability, which was not seen in the nation and province bids, has also just been broken in CABA. At least in part.
Two new surveys
that
Clarín
accessed
this weekend provide
very striking data
. In one, a K candidate prevails. In another, the one who measures the best is the second of a list M.
The studies are from the companies
Proyección
and
D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein
.
The first is a small, relatively new firm that works, among others, for the National University of La Matanza.
The other is actually a pair of pollsters:
D'Alessio IROL
, more related to the world of consumption and business, and
Berensztein
, of the well-known analyst who bears that surname.
Projection: Alberto better than Macri and Santoro up
The first Buenos Aires survey that
Clarín
analyzes
is that of
Projection
.
It included
671 cases
, surveyed between July 25 and 28, with a +/- 3.8% margin of error.
The survey, according to what the firm was told by this newspaper, "was at the request of Juan Pablo Chiesa, a candidate linked to Guillermo Moreno."
And they denied links with the candidate of the FdT
Leandro Santoro
, as some versions claim.
Before entering the electoral field, the consultant asks some questions about the situation and asks about the
image of the main politicians, national and local
.
And there the first surprises appear.
The table is led by the head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, with 51.9% positive and 37.3% negative. Nothing new. But second appears Alberto Fernández (+ 42.6% and -50.3%), when in other studies in CABA the President is much more relegated.
Then, always ordered by their rating in favor, follow
Patricia Bullrich
(+ 40.8%),
María Eugenia Vidal
(+ 39%),
Martín Lousteau
(+ 36.7%),
Leandro Santoro
(+ 35.9%),
Mauricio Macri
(+ 34.5%) and last, the mentioned (and unknown)
Chiesa
(+ 7.8%).
Then yes the work asks for the
intention to vote for the primaries
of September 12.
v 1.5
Voting intention in CABA
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 671 cases.
In %.
If the elections for the National Deputy for the City
of Buenos Aires were today, what formula would you choose?
Infographic
Projection
Source
:
Clarín
"If the elections to the National Deputy for the City of Buenos Aires were today, what formula would you choose?"
, asks
Projection
and first appears
"Front of All Leandro Santoro - Gisela Marziotta", with 32.4%
.
In the rest of the polls published so far in the City, the K candidates came closer to 20 than 30 points.
Below Santoro are the three variants that will compete in the STEP of Together for Change
: "Together María Eugenia Vidal - Martín Tetaz" 30.7%, "United Republicans Ricardo López Murphy - Sandra Pitta" 8.1% and "Adelante Ciudad Adolfo Rubinstein - Mónica Marquina "1.8%
.
Overall
, JxC prevails over the FdT 40.6% to 32.4%
, a shorter gap than other studies tend to show.
As a parameter, in October 2019, Together for Change won 17 points in CABA from the Frente de Todos for the presidential and 20 for the head of government.
In the
Projection
table they
complete:
- "La Libertad Avanza Javier Milei - Victoria Villarruel" 6.4%.
- "Gabriel Solano Left Front" 1.7%.
- "Principles and Values Juan Pablo Chiesa - Pimpi Colombo" 1.3%.
- "Self-determination and Freedom Luis Zamora" 1.1%.
- "Blank / Contested" 3.3%.
- "I don't know" 13.2%.
D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein: first second
The pair of consultants that have worked together for several years presented an interesting study of 1,000 cases, with
electoral floors and ceilings of the main Buenos Aires candidates
.
And there, a curious fact, is that the greatest potential was shown by an applicant who does not top a list.
This is the economist
Martín Tetaz
, who will support Vidal in one of the JxC intern's ballots.
According to the data of
D'Alessio and Berensztein
, it has a
floor of 27%
("I would surely vote for it") and
could stretch to 47%
, when you add 20% of "I would probably vote for it".
Below, in a
particular tie
, there are two heads of the list.
The aforementioned
Vidal
, with 27% of "I would surely vote for her" plus 18% of "I would probably vote for her";
that is, a
total of 45%
.
The same as Ricardo López Murphy
, who combines 20% of "surely ..." and 25% of "probably ...".
Santoro gets fourth
, with an interesting floor of 25% ("surely ..."), which stretches little, to
31%
, since it combines it with only 6 points of "probably ...".
The rest?
- Sandra Pitta: 15% "surely ..." and 13% "probably ...".
- Facundo Suárez Lastra: 8% "surely ..." and 18% "probably ...".
- Gisela Marziotta: 16% "surely ..." and 8% "probably ...".
- Adolfo Rubinstein: 8% "surely ..." and 13% "probably ...".
- Javier Milei: 7% "surely ..." and 11% "probably ...".
- Jorge Telerman: 2% "surely ..." and 15% "probably ...".
- Myriam Bregman: 2% "surely ..." and 10% "probably ...".
- Victoria Villarruel: 2% "surely ..." and 7% "probably ...".
Seen from the other side, the electoral ceiling,
the greatest rejection, has it Milei, with 54% of "surely they would not vote it".
They are followed by Bregman (49%), Marziotta (47%) and Santoro (44%).