Sébastien Laye is an entrepreneur and President of the Four Pillars Party.
It is clear that the regional have brought a little respite to the camp of the right, the good performances (not very readable, however, against a background of very low participation and automatic renewal, in times of pandemic, of those leaving, as in previous municipal elections. ) heralding the non-disappearance of LRs, however announced during the failure of the 2019 Europeans.
But, in the torpor of summer, there is an electoral pitfall that few party hierarchs and commentators have noted, an obstacle that will weaken the right between the regional and the presidential: it is the partial renewal of senators French people living abroad. Indeed, at the end of September, the French living abroad participate in the election of twelve senators. The renewal is done by half every three years. These senators are elected by the 442 consular advisers and 68 consular delegates representing French people living abroad in their daily life as expatriates. They have the same powers as the other senators.
In 2017, Macron won 93% of the votes of French people living abroad in the second round and obtained spectacular scores in the first round, sometimes more than 50% in some areas.
Sebastien Laye
Two million of our compatriots live abroad.
Their electoral strength is considerable, and exceeds that of an average region.
In 2017, Macron won 93% of their votes in the second round and obtained spectacular scores in the first round, sometimes more than 50% in some areas.
In fact, if Macron had obtained his average score in France from abroad, he would not have qualified for the second round.
This is to say the stake for LR, which must mobilize its troops for the election of 2022.
Several areas that should logically return to the right, such as the legislative constituency of North America, were won by En Marche in 2017 (Roland Lescure). If the future LR candidate fails to mobilize these French people living abroad, he has no chance of winning the presidential election, despite En Marche's breathlessness among these expatriates (often for the benefit of the Greens). However, the senatorials highlight the scale of the challenge and the perils if they are not dealt with immediately by the Party. The French Abroad are represented by twelve senators, and six of them should have been renewed with the remains of the Senate in 2020. But, indirect election, a senatorial can only take place if the large voters are elected previously. However, for the senators of the French ofAbroad, the electoral body, made up of so-called consular representatives (advisers to French citizens living abroad and consular delegates) could not be renewed until the end of May 2021 due to the pandemic. It is therefore at the start of the school year that the senatorial renewal is played out for them, and the least we can say is that LR has rather everything to lose except a start on his part. Indeed, of the six outgoing, three are from the right-wing opposition LR-UDI.of the six leaving, three are from the right-wing opposition LR-UDI.of the six leaving, three are from the right-wing opposition LR-UDI.
The consular elections in May did not go as usual. More than ever, elected officials are seen as various right or various left, with a certain independence from the parties. The purely LR or PS stamped senators find it more and more difficult to seduce large voters, party discipline playing less than before. This is how independent lists, like the ASFE de Bansard, which had already won a senator four years ago, could again encroach on the traditional right. The large consular voters will look at the profile of the candidate senators proposed to them: their link with this community of French people living abroad, their place in civil society, their media outlets in France, their ability to defend expatriates.Party support will no longer suffice.
When we try, on the basis of the results of May, to make arithmetic work, the verdict is severe for LR-UDI: stricto sensu, with the same candidates, we go from 3 senators to a single insured to recover his seat (Frassa).
The numbers 2 and 3 of the last elections were not mistaken and are already negotiating to let go of LR moorings, one with AFSE, the other with LAREM, of course, which should take a post of senator.
By automatically renewing the same list of graduates, without the capacity to propose a real project to consular voters, closer to the field, expatriates themselves, LR is running towards political suicide.
LR often believes that the vote of the French Abroad is acquired to him, because the latter would be more liberal than the average of the French.
But the time when this vote was automatic is long gone.
Sebastien Laye
However, as we have said, the stake goes far beyond the fact of losing two senators (even if, in itself, that should give Christian Jacob a cold sweat). This election risks sending back several very negative weak signals for 2022: the right does not care about the French Abroad, by agreeing to lose senators but above all by not seeking to diversify its list, its candidates, in order to propose profiles closer to the entrepreneurs in the field, who are often the consular advisers; the right does not seek to defend these French expatriates who suffer from complications to return to the territory of their homeland; the right neglects this reservoir of votes and donations as part of the preparation for the 2022 presidential election.
LR often believes that the vote of the French Abroad is acquired to him, because the latter would be more liberal than the average of the French.
But between the decimation of the liberals within LR, the freshness of the Macron promise at least in 2017, and the breakthrough of environmental concerns, the time when this vote was automatic is long gone.
LR must completely review its software with regard to expatriates, from this senatorial, but also of course within the framework of the presidential and legislative elections of 2022. Otherwise, the defeat will come again from that side.