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Belarus: "The more illegitimate the Lukashenko regime, the more it fears that it will be overthrown"

2021-08-03T16:55:15.675Z


FIGAROVOX / INTERVIEW- Belarusian athlete Krystsyna Tsimanouskaya has fled to the Polish embassy in Tokyo, while suspicion of murder surrounds the death in Ukraine of young opponent Vitali Chychov, found hanged. Historian Galia Ackerman analyzes the headlong rush from Minsk.


Galia Ackerman is a historian and translator, recognized specialist in the countries of the former USSR and central Europe.

She has notably published

The Immortal Regiment, Putin's Sacred War

(Premier Parallel, 2019) and

Traverser Chernobyl (

Premier Parallèle, 2016).

FIGAROVOX.

- Belarusian athlete Krystsyna Tsimanouskaya was forcibly taken to the airport by officials from his country's National Olympic Committee after being forced to stop the Olympics by his team's coach.

She is accused of having openly criticized her Federation on social networks.

How to explain such a reaction?

GALIA ACKERMAN.

-

It is a particular story because it is not an “opponent” to the regime in the classic sense of the term, it is first of all a sportswoman involved in a case which concerns sport. She is champion in the 100m and 200m and yet was integrated into the group that was going to run the 400m, without having been warned. She therefore posted an angry comment on social media against the Athletics Federation, saying that she had been faced with a fait accompli. It is in itself a story that is not political. As a result of this, all Belarusian channels (which are all state channels) grabbed hold of the story and started cursing the sportswoman. The latter very quickly understood that this affair could become dangerous: this type of behavior of the media ofState is often the prelude to an arrest.

Sports leaders in this country believe that athletes should obey without arguing.

Galia ackerman

However, she decided not to leave Tokyo, she wanted to participate in the Olympics and at least run the 200m for which she had been selected at the start.

A representative of the Belarusian Olympic Committee and a psychologist came and told her that she had to go home: in just 15 minutes she had to get her things and get to the airport.

There, she managed to speak to the police and asked for their protection.

She knew that if you took her by force, it presaged arrest.

She might have been tortured to repent of her "unpatriotic behavior", accusing her of tarnishing the country's reputation.

Two countries immediately helped her: the Czech Republic and Turkey.

But she specifically asked for help from Poland, which has already hosted many Belarusians.

Poland immediately accepted by granting her a "humanitarian visa", so that she could stay there as long as necessary, that is, until the situation changed.

She has found refuge in the Polish embassy and the Belarusians will not be able to prevent her.

It is therefore a story which is not originally political, but which says a lot about the attitude of the sports leaders of this country who consider that the athletes must obey without arguing.

A story that is just a big blunder on the part of the sports authorities has turned into a political affair.

There is a very strong suspicion of murder concerning Vitali Chychov.

The Ukrainian government has promised a very detailed investigation.

Galia ackerman

The Czech Republic and Slovenia have also offered asylum.

What does this tell us about the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe?

Eastern and Central Europe are helping Belarusians right now.

Many countries have offered to help.

Both Eastern and Western Europe.

The unsuccessful presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was received by Joe Biden.

The West and Eastern Europe in particular (proximity which is primarily geographical) support the Belarusian people and are fully prepared to help dissidents.

What's the risk now?

Can Belarus respond?

The risk was very important before she was a refugee.

If she had been forcibly taken there, she would surely have been arrested and possibly tortured, forced to repent publicly.

We cannot know how far the regime would have gone.

Now the regime cannot prevent its installation in Poland.

In addition, a young man, Vitali Chychov, Belarusian opponent, was found hanged in a park in Ukraine, where he was a refugee.

He was responsible for a Belarusian NGO helping his compatriots who fled the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.

Investigators believe it to be a murder disguised as suicide and members of the NGO denounce a murder sponsored by the Belarusian regime.

Is it likely?

There is indeed a very strong presumption of murder but the autopsy will confirm it.

Vitali Chychov's behavior had nothing to do with that of someone who wants to end his life, he was just going for a jog.

He was reported missing and his body found hanging from a tree.

It is a political matter from the outset this time around.

It is certainly an organized murder because Chychov was director of the Belarusian House in Ukraine;

it is an organization that helps Belarusian refugees, many of them in Ukraine.

Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine are border countries, therefore easier to reach.

Lukashenko began to physically eliminate opponents in the 2000s

Galia ackerman

Mr. Chychov coordinated all this help, including logistics (regarding money, work, food).

It was harmful in the eyes of the regime.

The Ukrainian ministry has promised a very detailed investigation but it is always possible that one cannot establish the truth because the murder can be very well covered up.

A homicide is all the more likely given that Chychov had recently complained that he had been followed.

This is not at all the first murder of this regime.

Lukashenko began to physically eliminate opponents in the 2000s: some bodies were never found, there was talk of "

the death squad

".

It could very well be premeditated murder.

What do these events portend for the political future of this country?

Nothing good. It is a regime that is totally immersed in paranoia, which is being persecuted from all sides. Lukashenko discovers so-called plots to overthrow his power. The more illegitimate he is, the more he fears that sooner or later the people will overthrow him. For the moment, and at the same time in Russia, the regime is hardening, in an insane way.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2021-08-03

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