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Elections 2021: new polls of Córdoba and Santa Fe, two key districts

2021-08-03T16:18:57.312Z

They are the provinces with the most voters after Buenos Aires. And they have very strong interns.



Eduardo Paladini

08/03/2021 13:01

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 08/03/2021 13:01

Without the political glow generated by the lights of (both) Buenos Aires, there are a couple of provinces whose result will also be key in the

2021 elections

:

Córdoba and Santa Fe

. They earned a place by their own weight, since years ago they surpassed CABA and became the second and third districts with the most voters in the country. But also, for this year's legislatures they

come with a plus: both will renew senators

. And how does the fight come there?

Clarín

agreed to three surveys that anticipate couple disputes, especially in internal ones.

On the one hand,

D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein

measured what is known as electoral floors and ceilings of the main candidates in

Córdoba

. They are two firms that have worked together for several years and published the electoral potential in the main districts days ago. This newspaper already anticipated the data of the City and Province of Buenos Aires.

On the other hand, the consulting firms of

Federico González

and

Raúl Aragón

published studies on voting intention in

Santa Fe

.

The two analysts worked at the time for the candidacy of

Sergio Massa

and are close to 

Agustín Rossi

.

This was confirmed to this newspaper in the surroundings of the displaced Defense Minister, from where they sent the polls.


The fight in Córdoba

It is the

second province with the most voters in

the country: almost 3 million qualified, which represented

8.71% of the total

in 2019

.

In this year's legislative elections, Córdoba will renew the three seats in the Senate: two that are in the hands of Together for Change and one of the Front of All.

Nine national deputies will also be put into play: five from Juntos por el Cambio, three from Córdoba Federal (the bloc that responds to Governor Juan Schiaretti) and one from the Frente de Todos.

The polls have shown Juntos por el Cambio up in the total

and a dispute for second place (key to the bench for the minority of the Senate) between We do for Córdoba (the local seal of the Peronist Schiaretti) and the Frente de Todos,

in general with Kirchnerism third.

Luis Juez and Mario Negri were allies in the provincial election of Córdoba in 2019. Now they go to the internal of JxC for the Senate.

The

D'Alessio and Berensztein

poll

measures the

electoral potential of seven pre-candidates

. With four central variables: how many people "surely" would vote for them (floor), how many "probably" would vote (added to the above, they make up the ceiling), how many "probably not" and how many "surely not" (rejection). 

First were three leaders who will participate in the STEP of JxC:

Mario Negri

, the radical who currently leads the interblock of Deputies but will fight for the Senate;

Rodrigo de Loredo

, rival in the Negri provincial UCR and who will lead another ballot for Deputies;

and

Luis Juez

, De Loredo's ballot partner and Negri's direct competitor for the upper house.

Senator Carlos Caserio, on his bench.

He got her allied with Schiaretti and then went to the Frente de Todos.

-

Negri

combines

32% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 23% of "I would probably vote for it"

;

with 15% of "probably would not vote", plus 27% of "surely would not vote".


-

De Loredo

:

20% of "would surely vote for him", plus 33% of "would probably vote for him"

;

with 15% of "probably would not vote", plus 23% of "surely would not vote".

-

Judge: 22% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 27% of "I would probably vote for it"

;

with 18% of "probably would not vote", plus 30% of "surely would not vote".

Then comes Martín Gill

, who will be head of the list for Deputies on the

list of the Frente de Todos

.

And

below Carlos Caserio

, the candidate for senator on the same sheet.

Fact: Caserio had gotten his seat in 2015 allied to Schiaretti, but then he left the governor and became a faithful soldier of Alberto Fernández.

-

Gill

combines

12% of "I would probably vote for it", plus 12% of "I would probably vote for it"

;

with 19% of "probably would not vote", plus 44% of "surely would not vote".

-

Caserio

:

10% of "I would surely vote for him", plus 12% of "I would probably vote for him"

;

with 20% of "probably would not vote", plus 54% of "surely would not vote".

Governor Juan Schiaretti and his wife, Alejandra Vigo, who will now fight for a seat in the Senate.

And a

step just below

appear the two main candidates of

We do for Córdoba

.

Natalia de la Sota

, daughter of the former governor and head of Parliament;

and

Alejandra Vigo

, current deputy and wife of Schiaretti, leading the Senate.

-

De la Sota

combines

8% of "I would surely vote for him", plus 13% of "I would probably vote for him"

;

with 27% of "probably would not vote", plus 49% of "surely would not vote".

-

Vigo

:

6% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 14% of "I would probably vote for it"

;

with 26% of "probably would not vote", plus 49% of "surely would not vote".

In all cases, they complete the "does not know / does not answer".

The fight in Santa Fe

With some 2.8 million eligible voters,

8.18%

of the total in 2019, it is the

third district with the most electoral weight in

the country.

He also renews three key seats in the

Senate

:

two from the Frente de Todos and one allied to Juntos por el Cambio

(the one that the late Carlos Reutemann had won in 2015).

In addition,

nine seats of Deputies

are put into play

: five from Together for Change, three from the Frente de Todos and one from the Progressive Front.

One of the most interesting aspects of the Santa Fe election is that the

three main forces go internal

Omar Perotti and Agustín Rossi, weeks ago.

They face each other inside the Frente de Todos in Santa Fe.

Thus, the reading of the numbers can be done in the summation

by force and in the STEP of each alliance

.

In the first case, the two studies, although close to the Frente de Todos, put Together for Change up.

Federico González's poll gives a total of 34.9 points to the four lists of JxC, 32.8 to the two of the FdT and 19.6 to the two of the Progressive Front.

The one in Aragon, meanwhile, gives it 34%, 31,% and 20.9% respectively.

When the internal ones are crumbled, there are also coincidences.

Both show an

advantage of the list of Agustín Rossi and Alejandra Rodenas

(the lieutenant governor, who allied with the displaced minister) over the one that responds to the governor Omar Perotti and is

supported by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner

.

González

grants a voting intention of

19.7% to Rossi-Rodenas compared to 13.1% to Marcelo Lewandoski and Rubén Mirabella

.

Aragon

, meanwhile, places them with

17.8% and 13.7%

respectively. 

v1.7 0421

Voting intention in Santa Fe 2

Based on a provincial survey of 1,200 cases.

In %.


Vote per candidate


Sum by space

Source:

Raúl Aragón & Asociados.

Infographic:

Clarín

Regarding the

internal Juntos por el Cambio, the two polls present a very even internal scenario

, with

Carolina Losada and Mario Barletta

first (9.8% for Aragón and 10.1% for González),

Federico Angelini and Amalia Granata

second (8.4% and 8.9%),

José Corral and Rodrigo López Molina

third (8.1% and 8.5%) and

Maximiliano Pullaro and Gabriel Chumpitaz

fourth (7.7% and 7.4%).

Amalia Granata and Federico Angelini, candidates for senators for Santa Fe within Together for Change.

Finally, in the

dispute of the Progressive Front

, for

Aragón

Clara García de Lifschitz and Mónica Fein

added 11.8% against 9.1% for

Rubén Giustiniani and Fabio Oliver

;

and for

González

, the same list also prevails, but 11.3% to 8.3%.

As the two Santa Fe polls reached

Clarín

through Rossi's team, this newspaper asked the other campaign spaces if they had their own polls and they answered that "for the moment no." 

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-08-03

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