Eduardo Paladini
08/03/2021 13:01
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/03/2021 13:01
Without the political glow generated by the lights of (both) Buenos Aires, there are a couple of provinces whose result will also be key in the
2021 elections
:
Córdoba and Santa Fe
. They earned a place by their own weight, since years ago they surpassed CABA and became the second and third districts with the most voters in the country. But also, for this year's legislatures they
come with a plus: both will renew senators
. And how does the fight come there?
Clarín
agreed to three surveys that anticipate couple disputes, especially in internal ones.
On the one hand,
D'Alessio IROL - Berensztein
measured what is known as electoral floors and ceilings of the main candidates in
Córdoba
. They are two firms that have worked together for several years and published the electoral potential in the main districts days ago. This newspaper already anticipated the data of the City and Province of Buenos Aires.
On the other hand, the consulting firms of
Federico González
and
Raúl Aragón
published studies on voting intention in
Santa Fe
.
The two analysts worked at the time for the candidacy of
Sergio Massa
and are close to
Agustín Rossi
.
This was confirmed to this newspaper in the surroundings of the displaced Defense Minister, from where they sent the polls.
The fight in Córdoba
It is the
second province with the most voters in
the country: almost 3 million qualified, which represented
8.71% of the total
in 2019
.
In this year's legislative elections, Córdoba will renew the three seats in the Senate: two that are in the hands of Together for Change and one of the Front of All. Nine national deputies will also be put into play: five from Juntos por el Cambio, three from Córdoba Federal (the bloc that responds to Governor Juan Schiaretti) and one from the Frente de Todos.
The polls have shown Juntos por el Cambio up in the total
and a dispute for second place (key to the bench for the minority of the Senate) between We do for Córdoba (the local seal of the Peronist Schiaretti) and the Frente de Todos,
in general with Kirchnerism third.
Luis Juez and Mario Negri were allies in the provincial election of Córdoba in 2019. Now they go to the internal of JxC for the Senate.
The
D'Alessio and Berensztein
poll
measures the
electoral potential of seven pre-candidates
. With four central variables: how many people "surely" would vote for them (floor), how many "probably" would vote (added to the above, they make up the ceiling), how many "probably not" and how many "surely not" (rejection).
First were three leaders who will participate in the STEP of JxC:
Mario Negri
, the radical who currently leads the interblock of Deputies but will fight for the Senate;
Rodrigo de Loredo
, rival in the Negri provincial UCR and who will lead another ballot for Deputies;
and
Luis Juez
, De Loredo's ballot partner and Negri's direct competitor for the upper house.
Senator Carlos Caserio, on his bench.
He got her allied with Schiaretti and then went to the Frente de Todos.
-
Negri
combines
32% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 23% of "I would probably vote for it"
;
with 15% of "probably would not vote", plus 27% of "surely would not vote".
-
De Loredo
:
20% of "would surely vote for him", plus 33% of "would probably vote for him"
;
with 15% of "probably would not vote", plus 23% of "surely would not vote".
-
Judge: 22% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 27% of "I would probably vote for it"
;
with 18% of "probably would not vote", plus 30% of "surely would not vote".
Then comes Martín Gill
, who will be head of the list for Deputies on the
list of the Frente de Todos
.
And
below Carlos Caserio
, the candidate for senator on the same sheet.
Fact: Caserio had gotten his seat in 2015 allied to Schiaretti, but then he left the governor and became a faithful soldier of Alberto Fernández.
-
Gill
combines
12% of "I would probably vote for it", plus 12% of "I would probably vote for it"
;
with 19% of "probably would not vote", plus 44% of "surely would not vote".
-
Caserio
:
10% of "I would surely vote for him", plus 12% of "I would probably vote for him"
;
with 20% of "probably would not vote", plus 54% of "surely would not vote".
Governor Juan Schiaretti and his wife, Alejandra Vigo, who will now fight for a seat in the Senate.
And a
step just below
appear the two main candidates of
We do for Córdoba
.
Natalia de la Sota
, daughter of the former governor and head of Parliament;
and
Alejandra Vigo
, current deputy and wife of Schiaretti, leading the Senate.
-
De la Sota
combines
8% of "I would surely vote for him", plus 13% of "I would probably vote for him"
;
with 27% of "probably would not vote", plus 49% of "surely would not vote".
-
Vigo
:
6% of "I would surely vote for it", plus 14% of "I would probably vote for it"
;
with 26% of "probably would not vote", plus 49% of "surely would not vote".
In all cases, they complete the "does not know / does not answer".
The fight in Santa Fe
With some 2.8 million eligible voters,
8.18%
of the total in 2019, it is the
third district with the most electoral weight in
the country.
He also renews three key seats in the
Senate
:
two from the Frente de Todos and one allied to Juntos por el Cambio
(the one that the late Carlos Reutemann had won in 2015).
In addition,
nine seats of Deputies
are put into play
: five from Together for Change, three from the Frente de Todos and one from the Progressive Front.
One of the most interesting aspects of the Santa Fe election is that the
three main forces go internal
.
Omar Perotti and Agustín Rossi, weeks ago.
They face each other inside the Frente de Todos in Santa Fe.
Thus, the reading of the numbers can be done in the summation
by force and in the STEP of each alliance
.
In the first case, the two studies, although close to the Frente de Todos, put Together for Change up.
Federico González's poll gives a total of 34.9 points to the four lists of JxC, 32.8 to the two of the FdT and 19.6 to the two of the Progressive Front. The one in Aragon, meanwhile, gives it 34%, 31,% and 20.9% respectively.
When the internal ones are crumbled, there are also coincidences.
Both show an
advantage of the list of Agustín Rossi and Alejandra Rodenas
(the lieutenant governor, who allied with the displaced minister) over the one that responds to the governor Omar Perotti and is
supported by Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner
.
González
grants a voting intention of
19.7% to Rossi-Rodenas compared to 13.1% to Marcelo Lewandoski and Rubén Mirabella
.
Aragon
, meanwhile, places them with
17.8% and 13.7%
respectively.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in Santa Fe 2
Based on a provincial survey of 1,200 cases.
In %.
Vote per candidate
Sum by space
Source:
Raúl Aragón & Asociados.
Infographic:
Clarín
Regarding the
internal Juntos por el Cambio, the two polls present a very even internal scenario
, with
Carolina Losada and Mario Barletta
first (9.8% for Aragón and 10.1% for González),
Federico Angelini and Amalia Granata
second (8.4% and 8.9%),
José Corral and Rodrigo López Molina
third (8.1% and 8.5%) and
Maximiliano Pullaro and Gabriel Chumpitaz
fourth (7.7% and 7.4%).
Amalia Granata and Federico Angelini, candidates for senators for Santa Fe within Together for Change.
Finally, in the
dispute of the Progressive Front
, for
Aragón
Clara García de Lifschitz and Mónica Fein
added 11.8% against 9.1% for
Rubén Giustiniani and Fabio Oliver
;
and for
González
, the same list also prevails, but 11.3% to 8.3%.
As the two Santa Fe polls reached
Clarín
through Rossi's team, this newspaper asked the other campaign spaces if they had their own polls and they answered that "for the moment no."
