A former student of the Université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth and the Université Paris II-Assas, Samir Ayoub, Franco-Lebanese, is a professor of management sciences and director of the Aix en Provence campus of
the ESSCA School of Management .
On the anniversary of the explosion that partly ravaged Beirut on August 4, 2020, the situation in Lebanon has not really improved, it is even getting worse and worse.
Those responsible for the explosion have still not been identified and no political action or government reorganization has succeeded in carrying out a project that could give hope for a return to normal both economically and politically.
Today, thanks to the depreciation of the Lebanese pound against the dollar and the inflation which is plaguing the country, we are seeing multiple shortages.
Medicines, basic necessities, fuel and above all the coveted foreign currency: the dollar.
The causes of these shortages are numerous and the situation so complex that it would be difficult to summarize it in this writing.
Let us focus on what appears to us to be the two main explanations, internal and external, of this situation, due to the geopolitical positioning of Lebanon and its proximity to Syria, a country under embargo and international sanctions.
The Lebanese are suffering a double punishment: a drop in the average salary to 100 dollars (whereas it was close to 1000 before the crisis), and runaway inflation which has multiplied the prices of basic food products by a minimum of 10.
Samir Ayoub
Since the start of the crisis, the Lebanese pound has lost 95% of its value. To import basic necessities often sold in dollars, the Central Bank found itself forced to subsidize imports in order to make them accessible for consumption in Lebanon. But the latter is weakened by the crisis and its reserves have already reached a critical threshold. The fatal outcome to which the country is getting closer every day is that of a drop and then a stop in these subsidies, making people fear the worst for an entire population.
The immediate consequence of this is a drop in imports, creating shortages and increasing prices. So that the Lebanese suffer a double punishment: a fall in the average salary to 100 dollars (whereas it was close to 1000 before the crisis), and runaway inflation which has multiplied (at least) by 10 the prices of products. basic foods such as rice, oil, sugar, pasta or meat. This, without any increase in the salaries of the Lebanese in return.
This dramatic situation was accentuated by opportunistic behavior among importers.
This is how some wholesalers stop selling freshly imported products and store them in their sheds, patiently awaiting the lifting of subsidies from the Central Bank, in order to be able to sell them at a much higher price.
Only the intervention of the police force recently made it possible to reveal to the great day a vast operation of storage of dialysis equipment in warehouses in Beirut, even though the country's hospitals threatened to no longer provide this vital care. for patients with renal impairment.
The same goes for infant milk, discovered to be out of date, while Lebanese families spent entire days crisscrossing the country to find it, in vain.
In Syria, we lack everything.
Basic necessities and medical equipment can be worth four or five times the subsidized prices in Lebanon.
The temptation is therefore very great to go and sell products imported for Lebanon in Syria.
Samir Ayoub
Syria is also experiencing shortages, but for different reasons. The country, partially destroyed, remains today under embargo and international sanctions, while some economic players are already trying to rebuild what was destroyed during the war. This also implies a drastic reduction in international air freight traffic. The Syrian geopolitical situation at the regional level is also complex. No support for Syria is shown outside of Iran and Lebanon. Iran, itself under international sanctions, can only very partially help Bashar El Assad's regime. In Lebanon, on the other hand, Hezbollah retains free rein to provide it with unconditional support.
On the spot, in Syria, we lack everything: basic equipment, medicines and medical equipment, fuel… so many products whose price can sometimes be worth four or five times the subsidized prices practiced in Lebanon.
The temptation is therefore very great to go and sell products imported for Lebanon in Syria.
Added to this is the reception on Lebanese territory, since the start of the Syrian conflict, of a million and a half Syrian refugees (for 4.5 million Lebanese), which accentuates these exchanges between the two countries and the flight of precious dollars. .
Samir Ayoub
Several elements make this free movement of goods possible. On its 454 km of borders, Lebanon has 375 with Syria. The legal crossing points are clearly identified and controlled (at least from the front), but this border has an incalculable number of illegal crossing points, through which the subsidized products, including fuel, transit. oil). Direct consequence: oil importers favor this very lucrative Syrian market (for the equivalent of 10,000 Lebanese pounds per liter of gasoline against 3,500 in Lebanon), creating a shortage forcing the Lebanese to queue for several hours at the station- service to obtain 10 or 20 rationed liters of gasoline.
To this fact is added the reception on Lebanese territory, since the start of the Syrian conflict, of a million and a half Syrian refugees (for 4.5 million Lebanese), which accentuates these exchanges between the two countries. and the flight of precious dollars, which the Lebanese lack, to the Syrian neighbor in the midst of reconstruction. Also, some refugees work for a living but pay no taxes, water or electricity in return. It also weighs on the country's infrastructure, already at the end of its life.
Within the Lebanese political class, the subject is taboo: we do not criticize the aid given to neighboring Syria.
Support is historical, diffuse and in high places, both within a corrupt political class, in power for decades, and in most of the large infrastructure companies, which profit from this mafia system at the expense of the Lebanese.
If the restrictions on Syria are the result of a consensus between Americans and Europeans, then its major repercussions on Lebanon's economy and the daily lives of its people must also become an international affair.
Samir Ayoub
However, closing borders cannot be a solution. It is neither realistic nor desirable. The supply of Lebanese consumers with agricultural products depends largely on Syrian imports. Relations between Lebanon and Syria must be able to become balanced relations between neighboring countries, with strict border control, which only the international community would be able to impose.
A year ago, we were already pleading for an international takeover of the country's governance under the aegis of the UN and the blue helmets. If the restrictions on Syria are the result of a consensus between Americans and Europeans, then its major repercussions on the economy of Lebanon and the daily life of all its inhabitants, must also become an international affair. This need is proving to be more and more ardent, in order to control the flow of people and goods between these border countries, and thus loosen the grip that squeezes the Lebanese population a little more every day.
Almost two years after the start of the economic crisis, even though the World Bank considers it to be one of the worst in the world since 1850, this international intervention is the only solution to dislodge the entire political class in power, powerless - because an accomplice - in the face of the scale and entrenchment of corruption.
