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Chaos in Lebanon: Hezbollah loses control, Israel fears escalation

The defense establishment estimates that Hezbollah is not behind the recent rocket fire incidents, contrary to the prevailing position on the organization's control of the area.

The connection between the shooting and the naval escalation against Iran was also ruled out.

In the absence of an address for responsibility and in light of the disintegration of Lebanon, the IDF is preparing to continue the terrorist incidents along the border

Tags

• Lebanon

• Hezbollah

• Rocket fire

Tal Lev-Ram

Wednesday, 04 August 2021, 22:51

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The defense establishment believes that Hezbollah is not directly or indirectly behind the recent shooting incidents from Lebanon into Israeli territory, including the rocket fire that occurred today (Wednesday).

This is in contrast to the prevailing position on the degree of control of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

The defense establishment has a direct link between the disintegration of the neighboring country and the continuation of security instability along the border, and as a result preparations for this type of terrorism along the border will continue in the near future.

Meanwhile, in Israel it is believed that recent events indicate a trend according to which Hezbollah is having difficulty fully controlling the territory, and within the vacuum that the Lebanese army is also dismantling in the area near the border - Palestinian terrorist operatives are carrying out the shooting independently.

This shooting was done against the interest of Hezbollah, which opposes it, while the defense establishment also does not identify effective actions that Hezbollah is taking to stop it.

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It does not matter who carried out the shooting to the north, this time Israel will be required to respond more significantly

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In the video: IDF attacks in Lebanon (edited by Aviad Ballali)

The IDF believes that this is a problem of Hezbollah's ability and control, and not a deliberate disregard for the escalation along the border. Among other things, this is the main reason why the defense establishment does not recommend attacking Hezbollah targets in response obtained at this stage is not extract a price directly from Hezbollah or handlers in response to the shooting, in order not to deteriorate escalation.

according to defense establishment's position, those Palestinian factions stated do not work in an organized, and they intend to heat up the northern border on their own, without instructions from that deployment institutionalized. according to estimates, The factions also do not receive direct guidance from Hamas, and are working without instructions to turn the Lebanese border into another violent line of conflict, such as in the Gaza Strip. Activists, according to intelligence held by the IDF.

The fall in the Kiryat Shmona area, today (Photo: Photos by surfers)

The grenades fired at Israel this morning caused a fire in an open area near Kiryat Shmona.

These were 122 mm rockets, relatively short-range and found in a very wide distribution in southern Lebanon. The IDF responded with artillery fire of more than a hundred shells along the entire Lebanese sector from the sea to the Mount Dov area on the Lebanese side.

The response at this stage is mainly intended to send a message to the Lebanese state that it is responsible for the situation, while the IDF deliberately fired at open areas so as not to hit civilians, and did not fire at targeted targets. The

main problem stemming from the firing by factions unidentified by no institutional source is that Israel has no one to claim responsibility from, with Hezbollah coming out of the equation and Lebanon not having a functioning government.

In Israel, the connection between the firing from Lebanon and the naval escalation against Iran is denied.

The ship was attacked on Friday (Photo: Photo Processing, Reuters)

At the same time, the defense establishment denies a direct or indirect connection between the rocket fire today and the escalation against Iran in the naval arena, or the possibility that recent rocket fire is related to Hezbollah or Iran's attempt to produce a new equation of response to Israel's operations in Syria.

Despite estimates that Hezbollah is not involved in the shooting, the defense establishment is preparing for the fact that the situation along the border, the lack of control of the Lebanese army and the overall chaos in the country - may lead to an escalating reality that Hezbollah is not interested in.

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