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Army and Security
It does not matter who carried out the shooting to the north, this time Israel will be required to respond more significantly
In the defense establishment, there are repeated stories of stories according to which a rebellious Palestinian organization is the one carrying out the shooting from Lebanon, the fifth in recent times.
For Hezbollah, this is a convenient solution, but over time the re-firing will require Israel to examine in depth whether there is a fundamental and profound change in the region.
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Hezbollah
IDF
Rockets
Lebanon
The northern border
Tal Lev Ram
Wednesday, 04 August 2021, 15:33
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What began with Operation Wall Guard in Gaza in what was perceived by the security establishment as a Palestinian terrorist organization's identification with Hamas' struggle in the Gaza Strip, as is usually the case in Israel's operations in Gaza in recent years, has recently emerged as a completely different trend.
It does not matter who is the terrorist organization that carries out the shooting from Lebanon and whether it is a Palestinian organization and not Hezbollah itself.
This is the second rocket fire event in two weeks, Thursday in two and a half months, when even Gaza is relatively quiet.
For 15 years since the Second Lebanon War, except for exceptional events in which Hezbollah responded to Israeli action or during an Israeli operation in Gaza, there has been no such sequence of events, which seemingly have no apparent reason.
Rocket fire incident Thursday in two and a half months.
Rocket Landing Area, Today (Photo: Surfers Photos)
Israel and Hezbollah have been deterred from each other in the years since the war. This is due to the heavy prices inherent in it and the possible damage to the daily life of the citizens and the security stability in the area. Both sides have a lot to lose in the conflict, so Israel and Hezbollah acted in the interest of keeping the northern border quiet, completely different from the line of violent conflict in the south.
In recent weeks this picture is changing rapidly, before our eyes. On the other hand, it seems that the other interest and the pace of events and their urgency indicate that there are those who want the border in Lebanon not to be quiet. At the very least, if it had interfered with Hezbollah he would have acted very aggressively against whoever carried out the shooting. If this has not happened by now, it is likely that Hezbollah has also changed something fundamental in the situation.
Following the recent shootings about two weeks ago, the defense establishment believed that the shooting was not related to Hezbollah and was not carried out in response to attacks attributed to Israel in Syria, where the IDF and Air Force have greater freedom of action.
The picture is changing rapidly, before our eyes.
IDF activity in the north, yesterday (Photo: Reuven Castro)
The possibility that this may be an attempt by Hezbollah and Iran to change the equations and respond against Israel's actions in Syria on the border with Lebanon was completely ruled out.
There were also those who believed in the defense establishment that in light of the difficult situation and chaos in Lebanon, the Palestinian terrorist organizations in the country allow themselves greater freedom of action and are less considerate of Hezbollah's interests.
But the IDF also knows very well today: if Hezbollah wanted to stop the rocket fire, it would stop and even easily, especially in light of the fact that at least in previous cases the Palestinian terrorist organizations carried out the shooting time and time again.
The rocket fire, which has been repeated time and time again in recent months, requires Israel to examine in depth whether there is a fundamental and profound change in the security situation on the northern border and these are not incidental events or a local Palestinian organization initiative.
In the defense establishment, the same story has been repeated time and time again in recent months, which is sometimes hurried to volunteer for Hezbollah, according to which a recalcitrant Palestinian terrorist organization is the one that fires the rockets.
More on Walla!
Rockets fell in the area of Kiryat Shmona, the IDF attacked Lebanon in response
To the full article
The identity of the person firing the rockets does not matter. This may be a professional question for the military, but the sequence of recent events requires the defense establishment to examine in depth whether Hezbollah is not the one moving the game on the chessboard, given its considerations in light of the difficult situation in Lebanon and possibly for other reasons.
This is a complex situation and the political level faces difficult dilemmas, how not to be dragged into a difficult internal conflict in Lebanon and in front of the international community, in days when Israel's political-security challenge should be focused on struggle and joint campaign with Western countries and other partnerships with Iran. On the other hand, Israel does not have the privilege that the northern border will once again become an unstable line of confrontation like in the south.
In the tension between not degenerating into the war in Lebanon, and on the other hand the need to respond, sometimes in our Middle Eastern neighborhood, a lack of a significant response to exceptional events again invites the next shooting incident and brings the escalation closer.
It seems that this time Israel will be required to respond more significantly, because so far the messages it has tried to convey have not reached their destination.
As far as Hezbollah is concerned, for its own reasons, a perfect solution has been found.
A Palestinian organization carries out the shooting, Hezbollah removes its responsibility and Israel removes Hezbollah's responsibility.
For a long time, Israel will not be able to continue like this.
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