Greens and Union experience a survey roller coaster ride.
The latest survey shows a violent slide - for the CDU and CSU.
A coalition option becomes impossible.
Berlin - Despite all the negative headlines for the Greens: The race for the strongest parliamentary group in the newly elected Bundestag seems to be opening again.
A new survey sees the Union continuing to descend - and the party of Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock almost in close contact again.
In a Sunday question from the Kantar Institute, the CDU and CSU only ranked 24 percent, just above their May low.
At that time Kantar measured 23 percent for the Union.
The Greens, on the other hand, make a rate of three percentage points to 22 percent.
The gap of just two percentage points seems to be surmountable in the remaining weeks.
The survey was commissioned by the news magazine
Focus
.
Survey: Greens suddenly back in touch - the black-green option is in danger again
The SPD around candidate Olaf Scholz is also on the upswing: it improved by one point to 18 percent.
The other parties remained unchanged: FDP 13, AfD 11 and Linke 6 percent.
If the result actually turned out to be such, it would have unexpected consequences for finding a coalition: In the case of a federal election on this Sunday, the black-green alliance, which has long been considered the most likely variant, would not have a majority.
Even green-red-red would not be feasible.
Coalitions of the Union, Greens and FDP (“Jamaica Coalition”) or of Greens, SPD and FDP (“Ampel”) - or also from CDU, SPD and FDP (“Germany Coalition”) would be possible.
Federal election poll: Union and Greens experience enormous fluctuations
However, such surveys are always fraught with uncertainties - and their statements currently vary greatly depending on the institute. Just this week, another survey had estimated the Union at 27.5 percent and the Greens as well as the SPD at 18 percent. Accordingly, the eco party celebrated the result: "Was perhaps a little arrogant by Söder, Lindner & Co. to suggest that the choice had been decided," tweeted Dieter Janecek, member of the Bundestag.
However, his party shouldn't cheer too early either. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The Kantar Institute indicates a statistical error tolerance of plus / minus three percent on average. The survey was carried out from July 28th to August 3rd among 1413 respondents who were interviewed by telephone. (
fn / dpa
)