It is not the first time, far from it, that the Acropolis of Athens smells the smoke of the fires that haunt the Greek capital. But what is really unusual is the heat wave that is searing the eastern Mediterranean these days, with extreme temperatures spurring the spread of fire everywhere. This Wednesday the Copernicus Emergency Management Service showed through the observation of satellites the existence of numerous active fires in Greece, Turkey, Italy, Albania, North Macedonia and the countries of North Africa.
As explained by the director of the National Observatory of Athens, Kostas Lagouvardos, on Tuesday 47.1 degrees were recorded in Lagadas, a city in the north of the country, and in Plakias, south of Crete, the thermometers marked a minimum of 36 degrees. "The average temperature last year during this time was between 10 and 12 degrees lower," emphasizes the meteorologist, who assures that this is "the worst heat wave in the country in modern times."
Without an attribution study, it cannot be categorically linked to climate change.
But these exceptional temperature records once again remind scientists that this is exactly what is expected when it comes to the climate crisis.
“In the last decade alone, we have had five major heat waves.
This year, moreover, has been the longest.
This, in itself, is already an indicator of climate change, ”says Lagouvardos.
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The citizens of Athens know very well that year after year, sooner or later around this time, the forest firefighters and seaplanes will have to leave. For now, according to the Greek authorities, the worst part is being carried by Varimpompi, Adames and Thrakomakedones, north of the city and only 20 kilometers from the center, where the fire, despite the about 500 firefighters working in the area, it forced residents to abandon everything and let the disaster engulf their homes. But this is only one of the 81 outbreaks that have occurred in the country in 24 hours. According to the authorities, in the areas of Mani and Vasilitsa, in the southern region of the Peloponnese, or on the islands of Evia and Kos there have also been evacuations of citizens due to the fires. On Wednesday afternoon, a quarantine of outbreaks were still active throughout the country.Although the flames in the capital were being controlled thanks to the increase in humidity and softer gusts of wind, according to the head of Hellenic Civil Protection, Nikos Hardalias.
A helicopter tries to put out the flames of the Varybobi fire in Greece.
On video, fires in Greece amid a heat wave.
PHOTO: EFE / VIDEO: AGENCIES
No wonder fires break out at this time of year in the Mediterranean.
Similarly, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service cannot claim from a scientific point of view that there are now more fires due to global warming.
However, the data collected by the satellites do already confirm the increased risk of fires in various parts of Europe.
This also corresponds to the forecasts of the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, in its report on the economic impacts of climate change
PESETA IV
, which warned that the rise in average temperature will mean an increase in the number of days with an extreme risk of fires. This is expected to occur throughout the continent, although there are two areas of the map that turn especially red in the projections: one of them is part of the Mediterranean that is burning right now, the other is the Iberian Peninsula.
To scientifically demonstrate the relationship of climate warming with some extreme meteorological event, as explained by Juan Jesús González, a researcher specializing in climate change at the Complutense University, an attribution study must be carried out, as was done with the heat wave of the past. July in Canada, of which an investigation by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) concluded that it would have been "almost impossible" if the planet was not warming as it is now. However, these jobs are expensive and uncommon.
However, as this meteorologist influences, this type of heat waves are the ones that must be increasingly prepared for with global warming.
“Climate change is not the cause of an extreme event, what it does is increase its associated characteristics, such as frequency, duration or intensity;
all of this falls within the expected context, ”says González.
"What about Greece and Turkey is a new normal that we are going to see with climate change."
Houses razed in Turkey
The fires are also being primed in a special way with Turkey, where the inhabitants of the southwest of the country have been watching how fires consume hectares in an uncontrolled way for a week.
The worst affected areas are between the tourist resorts of Bodrum and Antalya, where thousands of people have had to be evacuated from their homes due to the proximity of the flames.
In fact, many homes have been razed in the small towns around Milas, an area where fire threatens the Kemerkoy thermoelectric plant.
Medium danger during the
fires
June to September
Extreme
Tall
Tall
Moderate
Under
Very low
Number of days per year with very high danger
> 150
100 - 150
50 - 100
20 - 50
10 - 20
5 - 10
fifteen
<1
Source: Climate Data Estore - Copernicus.
LUIS SEVILLANO PIRES / EL PAÍS
Medium danger during the season
fire
June to September
Extreme
Very high
Tall
Moderate
Under
Very low
Number of days per year with very high danger
> 150
100 - 150
50 - 100
20 - 50
10 - 20
5 - 10
fifteen
<1
Source: Climate Data Estore - Copernicus.
LUIS SEVILLANO PIRES / EL PAÍS
Medium danger during fire season
June to September
Extreme
Very high
Tall
Moderate
Under
Very low
Number of days per year with very high danger
> 150
100 - 150
50 - 100
20 - 50
10 - 20
5 - 10
fifteen
<1
Source: Climate Data Estore - Copernicus.
LUIS SEVILLANO PIRES / EL PAÍS
Number of days per year with very high danger
Medium danger during fire season
June to September
Extreme
> 150
100 - 150
Very high
Tall
50 - 100
Moderate
20 - 50
10 - 20
Under
5 - 10
Very low
fifteen
<1
Source: Climate Data Estore - Copernicus.
LUIS SEVILLANO PIRES / EL PAÍS
According to Ismail Bekar, a scientist based in Turkey at the Federal Polytechnic School of Zurich, “there is no empirical proof to say that fires are caused by climate change, but in the last five years they have been increasing and this year has been the worst in the history of Turkey ”. This expert considers that what is happening in this country is related to the same heat wave that suffocates Greece and other Mediterranean countries, and shows his surprise at the high temperatures that have also been experienced these days on the Turkish coasts of the Aegean: " Now we are in maximum of 46 degrees in the affected regions, it is an amazing temperature ”.
The numbers in Turkey are scary: the European Forest Fire Information Service notes that more than 136,000 hectares have been burned in Turkey this year, about three times the normal average.
A fatality to which these days there have been eight deaths and 16,603 people evacuated from 28 municipalities.
The Copernicus Atmospheric Watch Service (CAMS) reported Wednesday that air data in Turkey and southern Italy "show that emissions and intensity of forest fires are increasing rapidly, while countries like Morocco, Albania , Greece, North Macedonia and Lebanon are also being affected ”.
The fire in 2021 in Spain
From January 1 to July 25, 2021, 1,959 fires have occurred in Spain, which have burned 37,535.9 hectares of forest area, according to the latest data from the Ministry for Ecological Transition. Although this is much more than last year at this time (21,132 hectares), it must be taken into account that the 2020 figures were especially good due to the effect of the more severe confinements and movement restrictions due to the pandemic. In any case, these figures for 2021 are below the average of the last 10 years of fires and burned areas. With regard to large fires, exceeding 500 hectares, there have been 11 so far this year, which is more than any year in the last decade, except for 2012,In which, at this time, 21 major accidents had already been registered and 149,681.15 hectares of forest area had burned.
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