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Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock
Photo: Christophe Gateau / dpa
There are still almost eight weeks until the general election.
But this Thursday, shortly before 2 p.m., one thing is already certain: the Greens will lose votes.
At least in the extreme southwest of the republic.
Because it remains the same: The state list of the Greens in Saarland is not eligible for election.
This is how the federal electoral committee in Berlin decides.
It is a tight vote after extensive deliberation: six members are in favor, two against, two abstain.
The result is a disaster for the Greens.
On September 26th, nobody in Saarland can vote for the eco party with a second vote.
In extreme cases, when things get really tight, it could even cost Annalena Baerbock the longed-for chancellorship.
Lost at least one mandate
Although the Saarland is a mini state, it is often neglected.
But in 2017, for example, more than 35,000 people voted for the Greens there.
Well, with a much better national trend, it would probably have been even more.
For comparison: in 2002, only 6,000 votes across Germany ensured that Gerhard Schröder remained Chancellor - and was not replaced by Edmund Stoiber.
The party would probably have had at least one Bundestag mandate on the state list.
It cannot be ruled out that this voice will ultimately be missing in parliament when it comes to whether it is enough for a traffic light alliance - or whether the Greens are actually in front of the SPD.
But how did it come to this?
It is Sunday, June 20, when the situation at the Saar Greens escalates.
That is the day they make their list.
A majority of the delegates voted Hubert Ulrich in first place.
For many Greens, right up to the party leadership, the personality is a provocation.
Ulrich was head of the regional association for 15 years, which is still considered to be matted and shattered today.
Many see Ulrich as a ruthless and scandal-ridden string puller, the main culprit for the chaotic conditions on the Saar.
But when the Greens flew out of the state parliament in 2017, Ulrich withdrew for the time being.
Women's statute overturned
But now he was obviously working on his comeback.
However, Ulrich was initially blocked from the top candidacy in Saarland.
A passage in the Greens statute, the women's statute, actually reserves first place for a woman.
Only if no woman should "run for office or be elected", as stated in the statutes, can a man be given a chance.
Something like that happens on that June 20th.
Party leader Tina Schöpfer fails in three ballots.
The delegates then give first place to male candidates.
Ulrich takes the chance and is running.
Although the country chief of the Green Youth, Jeanne Dillschneider, competes against him - but Ulrich's troops are standing.
The 63-year-old wins clearly.
The outcry among the Greens is tremendous.
Several members of the state executive board had already thrown out before the meeting, now others are stepping down.
Critics see Ulrich's victory as an unscrupulous power maneuver.
There is quickly talk of a violation of the women's statute - because Ulrich ran for office, although Dillschneider was still a woman with ambitions.
And there are other doubts about the legality of the list.
Four members of the Greens are said to have voted without authorization.
This is followed by weeks of legal squabbling that has kept the party in suspense to this day.
The regional arbitration court in Rhineland-Palatinate is turned on because the Saarland counterpart declares that it is biased.
The decision will be made in mid-July: The list with Ulrich at the top may not be submitted for election.
The board had already set a new date for the list to be drawn up.
The Saar Greens will meet again on July 17th.
This time, however, without the 49 representatives from Ulrich's Saarlouis local association - who actually made up about a third of all delegates.
It is now about inconsistencies in the delegate freestyle in the local association.
Ulrich will not run again without his people behind him.
Dillschneider wins this time.
It is the thing with the local association that is now becoming a heavy blow for the Greens in the federal government as well.
First, the state electoral committee decides: The list is to be excluded from the federal election.
It is this judgment that the federal electoral committee has now confirmed after a complaint from the party.
Federal Returning Officer Georg Thiel speaks of a »violation of the core set of procedural principles«.
Next image damage
For the Greens, in addition to the lost votes, the next damage to their image remains in an election campaign full of mishaps and blunders.
Ultimately, the impression arises that all of this was not just about statute issues and formal errors - but also about preventing an unpleasant politician from joining the Bundestag.
In any case, it is certain that the federal executive also put pressure on the Ulrich case at an early stage.
After his election at the first list meeting, Chancellor candidate Baerbock publicly expressed her displeasure: she had "wished for something else," she said - and announced "intensive talks".
Behind the scenes, leading greens became even more evident.
This emerges from an email from Federal Managing Director Michael Kellner to the Saarland state executive, which SPIEGEL has received.
"The political signal and the reactions from the party and from the public are devastating," stated Kellner in a letter shortly after the first list was drawn up in June.
The state executive should now check “whether the list was drawn up correctly” and, if necessary, hold a new assembly meeting.
He asks Ulrich to vacate first place.
When the Saarland Regional Arbitration Court, which is closely associated with Ulrich, later decides to cancel the new election date, the federal party intervenes again.
One even applies to the Federal Arbitration Court to "remove the Saarland regional executive from office with immediate effect" if the latter does not take action against the rejection.
The Tagesspiegel was the first to report on this threat.
In the end, however, waiters and the top greens have to ask themselves: Did they get bogged down in the Saar affair?
Have you disregarded basic democratic values?
With your insistence on new elections, did you ultimately ensure yourself that a list was collected that might have been held up before the federal election committee?
After the decision on Thursday, the Greens are contrite.
"We regret the decision of the federal electoral committee," says Kellner.
"It is particularly bitter for the people in Saarland who would have liked to have voted for a green state list with the second vote."
Above all, however, these people should have contributed to the success of the woman who prefers to remain silent about the whole chaos for the time being: Annalena Baerbock.