What could change in Iran with Ebrahim Raisi in power 2:16
(CNN) -
Ebrahim Raisi took office on Thursday as Iran's president, signaling the beginning of a new era of a harder line that could herald major changes in the Islamic Republic's policies at home and abroad.
After eight years of the moderate Hassan Rouhani administration, Iran is now turning to Raisi, an ultra-conservative head of the judiciary whose views fully coincide with the thinking of the country's powerful clergy and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the last word in all important state affairs.
Who is Ebrahim Raisi, the conservative cleric and controversial judge who became Iran's president-elect
Raisi's inauguration comes at a crucial time, as Iran is currently in indirect negotiations with the United States on how to reactivate the 2015 nuclear deal. Raisi will also face the task of reviving his country's battered economy. in recent years by the "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign of the previous US administration.
Tensions in the region are also high after a series of maritime provocations that the West attributes to Tehran.
Praise from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
In a ceremony held earlier this week, the supreme leader praised the incoming administration as Rouhani silently watched.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a speech in Tehran on January 2, 2018.
(Credit: AFP PHOTO / IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER'S WEBSITE / ATTA KENARE)
"In a handover of power, new ideas and new determination come onto the scene, and this is a source of hope for all those who are highly motivated to serve the country, particularly the youth," Khamenei said in a speech Monday on the controversial June elections that brought Raisi to power.
The elections were characterized by historically low turnout and were criticized as uncompetitive after an unelected panel of clergy and lawyers prevented the main reformist and centrist candidates from running, virtually guaranteeing Raisi's victory.
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Raisi was quick to make it clear that he is on the same line as the supreme leader.
The president-elect also has a solid majority in parliament, allowing him to quickly push through laws that could lead to major changes in Iran's domestic and foreign policy.
"Unity within the three powers of the state reduces infighting and disagreement, which is going to be crucial for him, and not having to worry about internal competition is going to be important to him," says Fouad Izadi, associate professor. from the University of Tehran.
Possible changes in Iran's economy
The most fundamental change could be in Iran's economic policy.
While Rouhani was keen to open up Iran to foreign investment and attract Western companies, Raisi subscribes to the notion of a "resistance economy," a model that Iran's hardliners have been propagating for years.
Its aim is to make the Iranian economy independent from outside forces, allowing it to better resist the impact of international sanctions, while also trying to foster indigenous industries.
Ebrahim Raisi, President-elect of Iran.
While Rouhani and millions of Iranians hoped that the landmark 2015 nuclear deal (known as JCPOA) would lead to a foreign investment bonanza, those hopes were dashed by the Trump administration's exit from the deal and its unleashing of the campaign. of "maximum pressure" that hit Iran with tougher sanctions than ever and that continue to cripple the economy to this day.
Dr. Seyyed Mostafa Koshcheshm, a political analyst in Tehran, says Rouhani's belief in improving relations with the West, even after the Trump administration began its maximum pressure campaign, may have been his biggest mistake.
"Rouhani sidelined ties with other countries. Its focus was the JCPOA, the nuclear deal and the removal of sanctions. Many Iranians who voted for Raisi believe that Rouhani was compromising Iran's foreign policy at the behest of comfortable solutions with the United States. and I was not careful enough with ties with other countries like China, Russia, Latin America and Africa, "he said.
Negotiations stalled around the nuclear deal
Negotiations are under way on how to get the United States back to the nuclear deal and for Iran to commit to fully complying with it, after Tehran responded to Trump's sanctions by significantly increasing both its stocks and the purity of enriched uranium in recent years.
Although both parties say they want to reach an agreement, the negotiations have recently stalled.
What will be the future of Iran's nuclear program?
1:22
Raisi, like the supreme leader and most of the hardliners, is not a supporter of the JCPOA.
In a speech delivered after receiving his presidential credentials, he said that while he was willing to remove the sanctions, he would not revert to the deal at all costs.
"We will definitely seek to remove and lift tyrannical sanctions," Raisi said, but "we will not condition people's livelihoods, we will not tie all things to foreigners. We will definitely pursue the issues that are immediate for us, which we face today." .
Despite Raisi's plans for a more self-sufficient economy, lifting at least some of the sanctions against Iran will be key as the incoming administration faces a struggling economy, a high unemployment rate, and a currency that It has been in almost free fall, which has caused a significant increase in consumer prices.
The impact of water scarcity
In addition, Raisi must find a solution to the country's water shortage, especially in southwestern Iran, which has sparked sometimes violent protests with several deaths.
Iran's supreme leader has said he understands those protesting water shortages and has called on the government to act.
Raisi says he has gotten the message and wants to tackle the problem, which will require large investments in local infrastructure.
USA and Israel, attentive to the new government of Ebrahim Raisi 3:24
"These issues have been detected and I assure people that solutions have been outlined and we have benefited from the opinions of experts and scholars and this will be dealt with urgently," Raisi said earlier this week.
"Active and dynamic" foreign policy
In foreign policy, Iran's hard line could be further accentuated.
As a major regional power with broad influence in the greater Middle East, Iran's foreign policy will be "active and dynamic," Raisi promised.
The Rouhani government, and in particular its Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, had a somewhat strained relationship with the powerful Iranian military and the influential Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard, responsible for foreign operations in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
With the president-elect who takes office this Thursday, there are no such disagreements.
Hossein Amir-Abdollhian, Parliament's foreign affairs adviser and possible next foreign minister, told CNN in a recent interview that Iran does not plan to limit its foreign policy.
Iran will have "a balanced foreign policy with an eye on all countries, with a logical and at the same time strong discourse, a discourse that will be able to ensure Iran's rights on all fronts," Amir-Abdollhian said.
Analyst Explains Future of US-Iran Relationship 0:52
This could lead to major clashes with the United States.
The Biden administration has said it wants Iran to start talks about its ballistic missile program and the country's "behavior" in the Middle East.
Tehran has even rejected the idea of holding direct talks with Washington.
When asked in his first press conference after his election if he would speak to President Biden, Raisi simply said, "No!"
Possible de-escalation with Saudi Arabia
However, while tensions between Iran and the United States could escalate further, other conflicts could experience at least some de-escalation.
Iran has recently entered talks with its main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to end a lengthy confrontation that has contributed to instability across much of the Middle East.
Political analyst Mostafa Khoshcheshm believes that detente with Riyadh is key to Iran's political and economic agenda.
In his first press conference as president-elect, Raisi said he anticipated the reopening of the Iranian and Saudi embassies in Riyadh and Tehran.
Relations between the two countries have been frozen since 2016.
"The ultimate goal for Raisi is the economy," Khoshcheshm said.
"One of the means to achieve this is foreign trade and when we talk about foreign trade that means de-escalation, that means detente with Saudi Arabia and that means dealing with other countries."
That is why, at his first press conference after being elected, he warmly welcomed Saudi Arabia. "
Ebrahim Raisi Iran