Jorge Castro
08/07/2021 5:30
Clarín.com
Rural
Updated 08/07/2021 5:30 AM
Brazilian agri-food exports would exceed US $ 105,000 million this year, and soybean sales are again at the top with 87 million tons, representing a value of US $ 38,000 million.
These figures once again make Brazil
the world's leading exporter of grains
, above the United States.
It is a new Brazilian historical record, which surpasses the previous one of US $ 101,000 million that took place last year.
The remarkable thing is that
soybeans would be surpassed this year by iron ore sales
, of which Brazil is the second largest exporter in the world after Australia, with whom it shares the same market as China.
Iron ore has experienced an extraordinary price increase, which went from US $ 65 per ton in July of last year to US $ 128 / t in the first half of 2021, which implies that it has practically doubled in 12 months.
It is the direct effect of the
new Commodities Supercycle
that is underway, and that systematically increases the demand and prices of all raw materials without exception, from soybeans to copper and iron ore, through oil and natural gas;
and that it has turned Brazil –along with Argentina- into the emerging country most favored by this cycle of the world economy, whose axis, notoriously, is the People's Republic.
Brazil's agri-food trade balance is truly exceptional
, with imports of US $ 17,000 million this year (US $ 14,000 million in 2020), which implies a surplus of more than US $ 70,000 million, with an upward trend that would be US $ 87,000 million at the end of the year.
The Brazilian export boom is a variable dependent on the extraordinary expansion of commodity sales; and it is what makes the Central Bank's reserves exceed US $ 380,000 million, which gives it
an exceptional exchange stability reinsurance
.
The result is that the agri-food sector accounts for 45.3% of total Brazilian exports, a slight decrease compared to 50.5% in 2020.
Brazil is the world's leading exporter of grains
with 193 million tons in 2020 (US $ 37,000 million) which represent 19% of total global sales. This means that in the last 20 years it exported more than 1,100 million tons of grains, with a value of US $ 419,000 million (12.6% of the global total). This is what has made Brazilian agriculture the first in the world when it comes to international trade.
The soybean complex is at the forefront
of this central phenomenon of the Brazilian economy, with sales that this year would exceed US $ 52.4 billion, which would be more than 50% of total external agri-food sales.
China is the other side of Brazil's export boom
, absorbing 69% of agri-food sales.
It is not surprising: the People's Republic represents more than 60% of total global soy imports, which come from only 3 countries, which are Brazil, USA and Argentina in order of importance.
The Chinese economy, the 2nd in the world (US $ 15.6 trillion / 17% of global GDP) would grow 9% or more this year.
In the 1st.
2021 quarter expanded 18.6% annually, and does so dragged by a consumption boom that represents this year US $ 6.9 billion, led by the spending of a middle class of 440 million members with income comparable to North Americans (US $ S35,000 / U $ S 45,000 annually) that grows 12.5% per year.
The Brazilian economy would grow 5% or more this year after having experienced a contraction of -4.5% last year.
It is an increase of almost 9 points in 12 months, which due to its magnitude tends to turn into
a real economic boom
.
Brazilian agriculture represents 22% of GDP, and grows at a rate of 10% / 12% annually, above the level of expansion of the product, which means that it can expand 10 points or more in relation to the product in the next 10 years .
In it,
both soybeans and corn have doubled in the last decade
: soybeans went from 75 million tons to 130 million in that period, while corn rose from 55 million tons to 105 million in the same stage .
The Brazilian agribusiness boom opens up the possibility of a thorough transformation of what constitutes the 8th.
economy of the world, and that it alone represents 74% of the gross product of Mercosur.
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