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Election posters of the Chancellor candidates from the Greens and the SPD, Annalena Baerbock and Olaf Scholz, in Potsdam
Photo:
Jörg Carstensen / picture alliance
A few weeks before the federal election at the end of September, a majority of Germans would like to see a different federal government and, in many areas, a real change in policy.
This was the result of a survey by the Allensbach opinion research institute on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation.
It was available to SPIEGEL in advance.
Accordingly, at the end of July, almost 55 percent were in favor of a change in the federal government after eight years of the grand coalition.
Almost 29 percent are undecided on this issue, and only around 16 percent do not think a change of government would be a good thing.
The mood to change is still high if you compare the numbers with those before other federal elections.
However, the value has fallen slightly compared to April, when it was 62 percent, the highest it has ever been since the first survey by Allensbach in 1994. However, the current value is still the fourth highest ever recorded.
"The development of the numbers is interesting when you compare them with the 1998 and 2005 federal elections," says Robert Vehrkamp from the Bertelsmann Foundation. In 1998 there was initially a very strong mood of change, which then weakened somewhat, but ultimately remained stable until election day. After the 1998 election, the red-green government replaced the black-yellow coalition under Helmut Kohl. The change of government and policy was successful.
In 2005 the election campaign also started with a relatively high value for a change of government and policy.
After that, however, the mood of change cooled down more and more.
The ruling SPD managed to catch up in the election campaign.
The change of government and policy took place only half-heartedly in 2005, the red-green government was not replaced by black and yellow, but by a grand coalition led by Angela Merkel.
1998 or 2005 scenario?
“It is currently completely open how the numbers will develop. They could stabilize at a high level, as in 1998, or decline further, as was the case in 2005, ”says Vehrkamp. “The election campaign, which has been rather tired so far, points to the 2005 scenario. The assumption of the parties and many media that Germans who are unwilling to change cannot be expected to change politics would then be a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. The Germans' wish to change would remain the fairy tale that many believe it to be. "
The other scenario would be comparable to 1998. »The election campaign is picking up speed again, and the parties are encouraging the voters to send their messages, arguing aggressively for it and convincing the voters of their necessity. Then the numbers will stay above 50 percent, and on election day like 1998 it could be enough for a real change, ”says Vehrkamp.
The survey also looked at the policy areas in which people most want a change of course. At almost 57 percent, the top priority is refugee and integration policy, around 55 percent want a different environmental and climate protection policy. The values for pensions, education and housing policy are also high - the different policy areas are close together. On the other hand, coping with the corona pandemic has clearly lost its importance for people.
While refugee policy is polarizing, that is, some want a liberal and some want a stricter policy, most Germans agree on the issue of climate policy.
Almost 80 percent are of the opinion that more should be done to protect the climate.
"Even among AfD voters, only around 20 percent believe that too much is being done in terms of climate policy," says Vehrkamp.
How the mood of change develops up to the election day on September 26th will also determine the willingness of the new government to change after the general election.
»If the voters lose their willingness to change, they leave the parties too.
If you stay brave, the parties may stay so too, ”said Vehrkamp.
