The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0388) achieved satisfactory results in the first quarter of this year. The average daily turnover of Hong Kong stocks and the average daily turnover of Northbound and Southbound Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached record highs.
However, entering the second quarter, Hong Kong stock trading dropped significantly, and the market was generally "mentally prepared." The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's profit in the second quarter was "unsustainable" and it was unable to continue the brilliant performance of the first quarter.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will announce on Wednesday (11th) the interim results of this year as of the end of June. The market expects that operating income and net profit will decline slightly on a quarterly basis.
According to Bloomberg’s comprehensive estimates, the median forecast of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s second-quarter revenue is 5.241 billion yuan, down 12% quarter-to-quarter; the median forecast of net profit is 3.628 billion yuan, down 5.5% quarter-to-quarter .
Bloomberg: Earnings per share in the second quarter fell 19% quarter-to-quarter
According to Bloomberg's forecast, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's second-quarter earnings per share fell 19% quarter-to-quarter, which was lower than market expectations, mainly due to weak average daily turnover and derivative transactions during the period, as well as a decrease in the number of new shares.
In the first quarter of this year, 32 IPOs raised a total of 133 billion yuan, but there were only 14 IPOs in the second quarter, and the amount of funds raised fell to 77.6 billion yuan.
Bloomberg analysts expect the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s earnings per share to fall by 19% quarter-to-quarter (Reuters)
Wu Lixian: The market needs to be more active before it is expected to drive the transaction level
Ng Lixian, a strategist at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Securities, expects that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will have a decent growth in revenue in the first half of this year, mainly due to the relatively high turnover in the first quarter of this year.
Although the turnover in the second quarter has fallen, there is still a certain increase in the turnover compared to the same period in 2020 of the previous year.
He predicts that "the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's revenue in the first half of the year will be around 10.5 billion yuan, and its profit will be between 7 and 7.1 billion yuan." As for the future growth momentum of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it still depends on the level of transactions. make a deal.
He continued that the easing of Sino-US relations is conducive to the further "return" of China's concept stocks in the future, and it will have a positive impact on the future revenue of IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
As for whether China’s tightening of new economy stocks will affect Hong Kong investors’ sentiment, he analyzed that the market sentiment may be "discounted" in the short term. Vote and implement "Win by Quantity"!
Morgan Stanley pointed out that structural drivers support the profitability of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in a challenging market.
﹙Profile Picture﹚
Morgan Stanley: Exemption of Chinese-funded companies from review will increase Hong Kong Stock Exchange's market share
According to the comprehensive investment rating of brokerage firms, a total of 35 brokerage firms are optimistic about the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, giving them "buy" and "hold" investment ratings, with target prices ranging from 340 yuan to 611 yuan.
Among the brokerage firms, only Morningstar is bearish, giving it a "sell" rating with a target price of 340 yuan; CICC has the most "bull" opinion, giving it an "outperform" rating and a target price of 611 yuan.
Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that the mainland authorities plan to exempt Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong from review by mainland cybersecurity-related regulatory agencies, which will increase the market share of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Morgan Stanley believes that the recent regulatory challenges in the Mainland will consolidate the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's structural positioning as a channel for global liquidity to enter China. It is expected that some new stock listings will be transferred from the United States to Hong Kong, which may increase the trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the long run.
Therefore, the target price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been raised from 480 yuan to 515 yuan, and the rating of "in line with the market" is maintained.