The Bundestag could grow again after the election - according to an expert to more than 1,000 members.
A “serious accident at the right to vote” also seems possible.
Berlin - Will the German parliament get bigger again after the federal election * in autumn?
According to calculations by an expert, a number of more than 1,000 MPs is mathematically within the realm of possibility.
"The range of plausible possible Bundestag sizes runs from around 650 to more than 1000. That cannot be ruled out," said Robert Vehrkamp, an expert at the Bertelsmann Foundation, of the dpa.
Vehrkamp is also a member of the commission set up by the Bundestag to reform electoral law and modernize parliamentary work - and a few days ago he warned in a study of a possible “majority distorting effect” of the latest electoral law reform.
There is currently a lawsuit in Karlsruhe against the amendment passed by Angela Merkel's GroKo.
Bundestag election: extreme case with more than 1,000 MPs possible - "majority distorting" accident not unlikely
An exact prediction of the size of the Bundestag is not possible according to Vehrkamp's presentation. “What is often overlooked in the discussion: It is not just the result of the second vote that matters. How many overhang seats there will be depends at least as much on the splitting of votes. And the splitting behavior is even more unpredictable than the allocation of second votes. "
For example, the Greens * could get about twice as many second votes * than in the 2017 election. “But we don't know what the splitting behavior of the Greens voters will look like.” If about 20 percent of them would - something out of old solidarity - their first vote Giving the Union "an enormous leverage effect," said Vehrkamp. “Then, depending on the scenario, you can quickly reach 880, 950 or, in extreme cases, even over 1000 mandates. It doesn't have to happen that way, but it is possible. Given the size of the Bundestag, the current electoral law is a real gamble. "
In a post on the website
wie-gross-wird-der-bundestag.de
, Vehrkamp recently pointed out a scenario in which overhang mandates for the Union remain unbalanced - and thus a majority of votes for a traffic light coalition * is reversed into a “mandate minority” " would.
"The tilting of a narrow second majority by three deliberately implemented overhang mandates in the electoral law without compensation would not even be unlikely with the current survey trend," he warns.
In this context, the expert spoke of a “serious election accident”.
Bundestag facing difficult legislative period?
Expert warns of problems in giant parliament
Vehrkamp got from the latest ARD “Germany trend” from Thursday (August 5th) * (CDU / CSU: 27 percent, Greens: 19, SPD: 18, FDP: 12, AfD: 10, Left: 6) with three different splitting scenarios calculated the size of the Bundestag. Depending on the scenario, there are 695, 851 or 978 MPs. The standard size of the Bundestag is 598 seats. Since the 2017 election, it has had 709 members - more than ever before.
The size of the Bundestag has an enormous impact on its ability to work and politics, said the election researcher.
“A Bundestag that is too large worsens the quality of political operations.” Even the formation of a government could be influenced by it.
"The larger the parliamentary groups, the more difficult it could be to organize tight majorities and keep them stable for the duration of the legislative period." (
Dpa / fn
) *
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