Eduardo Paladini
08/09/2021 9:32 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/09/2021 9:32 AM
One of the few certainties that seem to be on the road to PASO 2021 is the
supremacy of Together for Change in the City of Buenos Aires
(CABA).
A preponderance that the macrismo maintains almost without surprises since it debuted in 2003. However, depending on how the results of these
2021 elections
are analyzed
, the numbers may leave some bitter taste for
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
, the head of government who plans from CABA his national projection.
Synthesized in a question:
can the mayor of Buenos Aires lose while winning?
Today, the polls pose a clearly favorable scenario for the alliance led by the mayor of Buenos Aires.
But doubts arise.
How are you:
- Will you be able to renew the 10 national deputies who got between Cambiemos and Martín Lousteau in 2017?
- Can Together for Change be able to repeat the gap of between 17 and 20 points that Macri and Pichetto obtained in the presidential elections in Ciudad and Larreta himself for head of government less than two years ago?
- How far does María Eugenia Vidal have to draw in the internship against Ricardo López Murphy and Adolfo Rubinstein so that the decision to move the former governor and run Patricia Bullrich sounds right?
- To what extent can Juntos por el Cambio be affected by the ghost of Javier Milei?
Three new polls
Clarín
published this weekend an
exclusive survey by Management & Fit
, which raised the following scenario of voting intention in CABA, with 8.6% undecided:
- Together for Change 48.5%, distributed as follows: Vidal's list 29.1%, López Murphy's 14.2% and Rubinstein's 5.2%.
- The Front of All, with Leandro Santoro at the head, 27%.
- La Libertad Avanza, by Javier Milei, 9.2%.
- The Left Front of Myriam Bregman, 2.7%.
- Another party, 3.9%.
In parallel, this newspaper accessed
three other new studies in CABA
that, with nuances, raise similar general conclusions: the general advantage of Juntos por el Cambio over the Frente de Todos, Vidal's victory in the internal and an expectant third place for Milei.
But in the margins where these polls differ, the finest reading of the election can be defined.
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
, a firm with origins in Córdoba that makes measurements throughout the country and has published a ranking of governors for more than a year, released a survey of
925 cases
on Monday
, surveyed between August 6 and 7.
To start with, with a question that focuses on Alberto Fernández and Larreta, it is clear the impact of the crack in the district, one of the most anti-K in the country: 56.2% say they will support "a candidate who opposes "to the President, while 54.6% respond that they will choose a candidate" who supports "the head of government.
Survey in the City of CB Consultant Public Opinion.
Voting intention for the STEP of September 12.
Then, measure the images and electoral potentials of the main candidates in CABA, which are located in this order:
1) Vidal: 58.8% positive image and 38.5% negative, plus an electoral floor of 25.3% and a ceiling of 49.8%.
2) López Murphy: 44.3% positive image and 34.5% negative, plus an electoral floor of 7.7% and a ceiling of 35.8%.
3) Santoro: 33.4% positive image and 31.5% negative, plus an electoral floor of 14.5% and a ceiling of 26.8%.
4) Milei: 38.9% positive image and 38.8% negative, plus an electoral floor of 5.3% and a ceiling of 24.3%.
5) Rubinstein: 33.4% positive image and 21.8% negative, plus an electoral floor of 1.2% and a ceiling of 22.6%.
Regarding the intention to vote by candidates / spaces, with 14.2% undecided and 2.9% of "I will not go to vote",
Vidal points out with 34.5%
, followed by Santoro (22.5%) , López Murphy (10.4%), Milei (7.6%), Rubinstein (3.4%), Bregman (3%) and others (1.5%).
In the sum by spaces, Juntos por el Cambio scores 25.8 points ahead of all: 48.3% to 22.5%.
When projected undecided, the gap stretches to 30 points: JxC 56.2% vs. FdT 26.2%. It is the most favorable scenario for Together for the Change of those known so far.
Another study that emerged in these days is from the
Observatory of Applied Social Psychology (OPSA)
of the UBA.
It was a survey of 1,400 cases, between August 1 and 4.
One of the most interesting pictures is when the probability of the vote is analyzed and
the rejection of all forces prevails
:
- 79% "sure" will not vote for the Left Front.
- 68% "sure" will not vote for the Frente de Todos or the libertarians of Milei.
- And 52% "sure" will not vote for Together for Change.
Survey in the City of the UBA.
Voting intention per candidate, with undecided and projected.
Later, when asked about the intention to vote itself,
the polarization numbers are lower than those of CB and those of undecided and Milei, higher
(25%): Together for Change reaches 32%, Front de Todos at 23%, La Libertad Advances at 12%, FIT at 5% and Self-determination and Freedom (Luis Zamora) at 3%.
Afterwards, the names of the lists are specified and the figures go up a bit.
With 17.2% undecided, they are located like this:
1) Vidal 23.8%, López Murphy 10.7% and Rubinstein 2.6%. Total Together for Change 37.1%.
2) Santoro (FdT): 23.9%.
3) Milei (LA): 12%.
4) Bregman (FIT): 6.4%.
5) Zamora (AyL): 3.3%.
The
gap by space
, in favor of JxC over the FdT, is "only" 13.2 points: 37.1% to 23.9%.
And it stretches to 16.4 when they project undecided: 46.3% vs.
29.9%.
Survey in the City of Ricardo Rouvier.
Voting intention for the STEP.
The last Buenos Aires poll that
Clarín
accessed
these days is from
Ricardo Rouvier
, a consultant historically linked to Kirchnerism.
Between July 23 and August 4, he surveyed 605 cases in CABA.
With the following electoral numbers.
1) Vidal 29.7%, López Murphy 8.5% and Rubinstein 2.6%. Total Together for Change 40.8%.
2) Santoro (FdT): 23.6%.
3) Milei (LA): 5.7%.
4) Bregman (FIT): 3.2%.
5) Zamora (AyL): 2.4%.
- Others: 3.1%.
- None / Blank: 5.6%.
- Don't know: 15.6%.
In this case, without projection of undecided,
the difference of Together for Change over the Front of All is 17.2 points
: 40.8% vs.
23.6%.
Is Larreta enough with these numbers?
Although there are still five weeks to go before the PASO and the actual election, the one that defines the seats, is that of November 14, these projections allow some preliminary conclusions.
A priori, it seems
very difficult for Juntos por el Cambio to renew the 10 seats
that it puts into play in the City and that it won 4 years ago, when Lousteau competed outside of Cambiemos.
That year, between both spaces they added 62% in the PASO and 62.5% in the general.
They were two very powerful lists, headed by Elisa Carrió and by Lousteau himself
.
Today,
polls place JxC closer to 40 points and projecting undecided, between 45 and 55
.
In parallel, a growth of Kirchnerism is expected compared to 2017, when it barely exceeded 20%.
But it also sounds complex for the Frente de Todos to pass 35 points in CABA, as happened in the 2019 national wave.
Ricardo López Murphy, the economist who goes to the intern against Vidal in the City.
Photo: Rafael Mario Quinteros.
Thus, perhaps, Together for Change can close to a gap close to 20 points, like two years, but without renewing its 10 seats or reaching the record numbers of 2017.
Another fine reading will be with the results of the internship between Vidal, López Murphy and Rubinstein.
A consultant who closely follows the dispute, evaluates that
"less than 35 points for her would be a blow. And for López Murphy, reaching double digits would already be an achievement
.
"
There is less expectation with the radical list headed by Rubinstein.
And on the right, the risk for Larreta does not only come from the side of the former minister who entered the JxC STEP.
In this alliance
there is also concern with the performance of Milei
, who bets on the disenchantment of young people and seeks a vote that mostly would come from macrismo.
Will it be closer to 5 points or will it reach double digits?
