Which key figure will politics rely on in future to assess the corona situation?
An epidemiologist explains why the incidence cannot be left out - and gives a corona outlook.
Munich - On Tuesday (August 10th) we will once again be looking towards autumn and winter 2021. How will the corona pandemic continue?
Chancellor Angela Merkel and the prime ministers are being discussed at a corona summit.
A topic that has already been discussed a lot in advance: Should the seven-day incidence continue to be the central benchmark for decisions?
With epidemiologist Professor Dr.
Timo Ulrichs took the position of an expert - and explained the problem that would arise if one were not to look at the development of the incidence any more.
Corona in Germany: has the incidence really "obsolete"?
- Epidemiologist explains problem
On Sunday, FDP vice parliamentary group leader Michael Theurer stated that the incidence as the sole corona warning value had "had its day". In addition to the incidence, he asked for further criteria such as vaccination progress and hospital occupancy. As leaked from the draft resolution before the Corona summit, this is exactly what should be sought. In addition, the resulting burden on the health system should also be taken into account.
Opposite
ntv.de
was opposed epidemiologist Ulrich that one parameter such as the hospital occupancy've had in the past Corona waves already in view.
“The problem is that the parameters mentioned do not appear until much later.
The early parameter is still the incidence and that's what we should look for, ”he explained.
"This is also the parameter for the question, 'How steeply will the wave rise?'."
Corona in Germany: "We are going into the peak of the fourth wave"
According to the epidemiologist, Germany will “see large increases in the near future.” RKI boss Lothar Wieler had only recently stated that it was already in the middle of the fourth wave, Ulrichs told
ntv.de
: “We are going into the peak the fourth wave in. "
However, in the fourth wave, the consequences will not be felt so strongly compared to the second and third corona waves, he relativized and justified: "Because the risk patients and older age groups are already fairly well vaccinated." and people who would have to be treated in the intensive care units.
The delay with which these numbers are noted is the background to why one must continue to look at the number of newly infected per 100,000 inhabitants.
More dangerous virus mutations?
- "They have a certain potential"
The so-called delta mutation is responsible for the currently increasing number of cases in Germany, says Ulrichs. Most recently, US immunologist Fauci warned of further more dangerous corona variants. Opposite
ntv.de
confirmed Ulrichs that already would circulate "some" variants. “They also have a certain potential,” he emphasized. It is therefore important that the virus can no longer circulate in the world. Vaccine must also be given to poorer countries to prevent this.
(mbr)
