Eduardo Paladini
08/10/2021 11:25 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/10/2021 11:25 AM
With more than a month to go until PASO 2021, three consultants decided to look further (well beyond) and asked public opinion about the upcoming presidential elections.
They are studies by the consulting
firms Management & Fit (M&F), Real Time Data (RTD) and Giacobbe & Asociados
.
Two nationals, one from Buenos Aires and one from Buenos Aires.
They measured in two ways.
A more general one
:
Will people want a candidate from the Front of All, one from Together for Change and a third, out of the crack?
And
another more specific
: who would you like to be the next President?
In both cases, the
results are still very open
.
But interesting to analyze.
Or entertain yourself with statistics.
In one of the studies, for example, there is surprise and Governor
Axel Kicillof
appears first
.
The Management & Fit survey
The consulting firm that
Mariel Fornoni
directs
and has as clients, among others, the governments of the City, Córdoba and Santa Fe, published its latest national study days ago, with cuts in CABA and the province of Buenos Aires.
Clarín exclusively advanced the main data this weekend
, which revealed an advantage of the Frente de Todos in Buenos Aires territory, with Diego Santilli at the top of Facundo Manes in the internship of Together for Change in the district.
The expanded report of that same work, with
2,200 cases
surveyed throughout the country between July 26 and August 2, included the following question: "And if tomorrow there were elections again to elect a president, would you feel more inclined to vote for a candidate favorable to the Alberto Fernández government or for an opposition candidate? ".
v1.7 0421
Presidential poll 2023
Based on a national survey of 2,200 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Management & Fit
Infographic:
Clarín
35.8% responded that "they would vote for a candidate favorable to the government of Alberto Fernández", against 52.6% who would vote for an "opposition candidate". They completed 11.6% of "don't know / don't answer".
There were almost no changes compared to the previous month (35.8% / 51.5% / 12.7%) and although the non-official members prevail,
the panorama is very open
, since the opposition offer is usually divided and the almost 36 points of the Frente de Todos are an interesting base, in a context of deep crisis.
When the data are shelled, the
ruling party
achieves its best numbers among those
over 40
and those with
a low economic level
;
while the
opposition
grows between those of
average and high economic level
.
The Giacobbe survey
It is the consultancy led by
Jorge Giacobbe
(son).
He is one of the analysts best known for his strong presence in the media, including as a panelist.
His works circulate -among others- in sectors of the macrismo, such as those linked to Patricia Bullrich, head of the PRO.
Between July 27 and 29, he surveyed
2,500 cases
in the province of Buenos Aires;
and another of 1,500, in CABA.
In both, he stated: "
Presidency 2023 / Which of these phrases is closest to your opinion?
"
v1.7 0421
Presidential poll 2023
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 2,500 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Giacobbe & Asociados
Infographic:
Clarín
In Province, there was parity in three of the five options offered, with the FdT above:
1) "I would like the Frente de Todos to continue governing for 4 more years": 31.7%.
2) "I would like him to govern Together for Change again in 2023": 29.3%.
3) "I would like another political party to govern outside the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio": 26.4%.
4) "I still don't know who I would like to govern from 2023": 12.2%.
5) "Ns / nc": 0.3%.
v1.7 0421
Presidential poll 2023 - CABA
Based on a Buenos Aires survey of 1,500 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Giacobbe & Asociados
Infographic:
Clarín
In CABA, Together for Change prevailed more clearly:
1) "I would like him to govern Together for Change again in 2023": 36.6%.
2) "I would like another political party to govern outside the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio": 25.9%.
3) "I would like the Frente de Todos to continue governing for 4 more years": 22.1%.
4) "I still don't know who I would like to govern from 2023": 15.5%.
The Real Time Data survey
It is a consulting firm created in 2019, by a former Poliarquía (
Nicolás Solari
), who does daily update studies with clients in the country and abroad.
In July, it presented a national survey of
1,070 cases
.
As he has been asking every month, he asked those surveyed to respond "spontaneously":
"Who would you like to be the next president of Argentina?"
.
The dispersion was total, with 10 nominated candidates, and
a winner, Kicillof, who barely reached 13%
.
They followed him: stuck with
12%
,
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
;
and one notch below, with
10%
,
Alberto Fernández
.
v1.7 0421
Presidential poll 2023
Based on a national survey of 1,070 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Real Time Data (RTD)
Infographic:
Clarín
They completed:
- Mauricio Macri and Cristina Kirchner, both with 7%.
- Patricia Bullrich, with 6%.
- Sergio Massa and María Eugenia Vidal, with 3%.
- Facundo Manes and José Luis Espert, with 2%.
In the midst of this volatility, the highest percentage was taken by
"others" (18%) and the undecided (17%)
.
When the consulting firm showed the detail by political affinity,
among the voters of Juntos por el Cambio Larreta added 22%
, against 18% for Macri and 16% for Bullrich.
And
among those of the Frente de Todos, Kicillof scored with 28%
, against 21% for Fernández and 14% for Cristina.
Regarding evolution, those that
grew the most
since January were
Bullrich and Kicillof
;
and those who
fell the most
,
Fernández and Vidal
.