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(CNN) -
Tropical Storm Fred is expected to form this Tuesday, triggering tropical storm warnings and alerts in the northern Caribbean.
If formed, Fred will be the sixth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season and will head to the southern United States this weekend.
The disturbance is currently a potential tropical cyclone and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to strengthen into a tropical storm Tuesday afternoon or evening.
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"Satellite images show that the disturbance has been better organized since yesterday," the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning.
The system is moving west-northwest at 28.9 km / h with sustained winds of 56 km / h.
As it continues to move through the Caribbean, the potential cyclone will bring the threat of floods, landslides and dangerous winds to the islands of the region.
Monitoring
This is the expected track of Tropical Storm Fred.
"Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and southeastern United States. Bahamas by the end of Wednesday, "the NHC said.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques, the US Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic this Tuesday.
Tropical storm watches include Martinique and Guadeloupe, Saba and Sint Eustatius, the Dominican Republic on the north coast from Old Cape French to the Haitian border, parts of Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, according to the NHC.
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A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the warning area within 36 hours.
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The disturbance will bring rainfall in parts of the Caribbean in the middle of the week, causing concerns about flash floods and landslides in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.
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"The greatest threat of impact from the floods will be through the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico," the NHC said.
The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are expected to receive 50 to 101 millimeters of rain with isolated amounts of up to 150 millimeters.
The Dominican Republic could also receive 76 to 150 millimeters.
Smaller totals, 25 to 76 millimeters, are expected in the Windward Islands.
Dangerous waves and rip currents are also affecting the Caribbean and will continue within the alert and surveillance areas.
Tropical storm force winds and heavy rains threaten a wider region across Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Cuba in the latter part of the week as the storm travels across the northern Caribbean.
Tropical storm warning issued for parts of the Caribbean
As the system approaches and potentially drifts over Cuba, interaction with the land could significantly weaken the storm.
There is still uncertainty in the trajectory of the disturbance, but some models show that the storm is still over the island, which would inhibit its strengthening.
If the potential cyclone follows a further northward path in open water, there is still the possibility of further strengthening, but the forecast is still uncertain in the stages of storm formation.
"During the next few days the storm will be affected by Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and it will probably not get much stronger, but afterwards there is a lot of hot water for it to get stronger," said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
The Bahamas and Florida could be affected by the tropical system later in the week, but forecast uncertainty is making the timing of impacts more difficult.
The storm could move into the Gulf late in the week or on the weekend, depending on the final trajectory of the disturbance.
"Stakeholders in Florida should follow the forecast updates for this system, but it is too early to determine what impacts could occur there later this week or this weekend, given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast," says the NHC.
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