The corona pandemic and the closure of the Suez Canal recently showed how vulnerable international retail chains are.
A far greater threat lies underground.
Taipei - In addition to earthquakes and tsunamis, volcanoes also pose a constant threat to humans and nature. As
Focus
first
reported, researchers have now identified seven locations that are considered highly dangerous volcanic areas.
An outbreak there could amount to a global catastrophe.
The volcanic areas are located at important junctions for business, communication and international logistics.
The current container crisis already shows how vulnerable the global flow of goods is.
An eruption at such a hub could have devastating consequences.
Study: Super volcanoes aren't the biggest threat
Today areas such as the straits of Luzon and Malacca, Taiwan, but also the Mediterranean Sea are in danger zone.
So-called super volcanoes are particularly threatening.
Past disasters, such as the eruptions of the Toba volcano or the Yellowstone caldera volcano, could trigger mass extinction today or change the climate forever.
As expert-Lara Mani from the University of Cambridge noted, there is also danger from smaller volcanoes.
"Moderate outbreaks that incapacitate important international communications links, trade networks or transport routes are just as large, but far more common as supervolcanoes," said Mani.
Study: Seven high-risk zones identified
The experts identified seven high-risk zones to ward off future disasters caused by volcanic eruptions.
They considered dangers from ash, lava and other ejections as well as secondary consequences such as submarine landslides, mudslides or tsunamis.
At the same time, it was taken into account where active volcanoes or volcanic regions meet with particularly vulnerable and important infrastructure.
Four of the identified danger points were located in Southeast Asia, and another three in the western northern hemisphere.
These seven zones are particularly vulnerable weak points in the global economy.
The international trade in goods could already be paralyzed by minor outbreaks.
Taiwan: volcanoes threaten computer chip manufacturing
Northern Taiwan is particularly at risk. This is where the Tatun volcano group is located, which is not on the verge of an eruption, but is still active. A large part of the world's demand for computer chips is shipped via the nearby port of Taipei. The major semiconductor manufacturer TSMC is also based in Taipei. As the research team explains, TSMC produces 90 percent "of all modern computer chips and is the most important supplier to the global technology and automotive industries".
On the other hand, an eruption of the Changbaishan volcanic complex on the border between China and North Korea would have a devastating effect on air traffic.
"The eruption cloud, even from a minor eruption in this area, could reach across the Korean peninsula to Japan and block some of the world's busiest air routes," said the research group around Mani.
Indonesia: outbreak could cost world economy $ 2.5 trillion
Indonesia is threatened with similar effects.
Experts estimate that a magnitude six eruption from the high-risk Merapi volcano on Java would lower global gross domestic product by $ 2.5 trillion.
Malacca, on the other hand, is considered to be the artery of shipping.
The sea road there is crossed by around 40 percent of global freight traffic.
The region between the island of Sumatra and the city-state of Singapore is "also one of the most heavily frequented airspaces in the world".
Volcano eruption: data cables are threatened
An eruption in the strait between Taiwan and the Philippine island of Luzon would be fatal for international communication.
The Luzon Strait is a data communications hub.
17 submarine cables run there, connecting the Asian economic centers with one another.
The consequences of this could already be determined in 2006.
The submarine cables were damaged by a seaquake.
As a result, "large parts of the Internet in Japan, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong failed. These disruptions lasted for weeks and eleven cable laying vessels were in use for 49 days to carry out repairs," according to experts from the University of Cambridge.
Mediterranean: Vesuvius eruption threatens Suez Canal
The western hemisphere is also threatened.
Well-known are, for example, the Vesuvius or the Santorini volcano.
These represent a bit of a danger for the Suez Canal. "We saw what a six-day closure of the Suez Canal does when a container ship crossed the canal in March 2021 and blocked the passage," said Mani.
"Every week the lockdown costs global trade $ 10 billion."
The economy could also be hit hard by an eruption of the Cascades volcanic chain in northwest North America.
Expert Mani: "A magnitude 6 eruption of Mount Rainier with ash clouds over the north of the US and parts of Canada would, according to scenario simulations, reduce global gross domestic product by up to 7.6 trillion US dollars over five years."
Study: Preventive measures are required
The research team calls for preventive measures. "It is time to reassess volcano risk," emphasizes Mani. Far more realistic than the Hollywood-style outbreak of a super volcano is the threat to the hubs of the global economy from minor eruptions. According to Mani, we can therefore work on "reducing the susceptibility of our critical systems to such events and thus strengthening our resilience to these global catastrophes." *
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