Federal election 2021: will FDP leader Lindner become Chancellor?

If three argue, is the fourth happy?

In the federal election in autumn there may be no way around the FDP.

Berlin - Four years ago, a Jamaica alliance with the Union and the Greens narrowly failed because of the FDP. For the Liberals, it was a much derided retreat. In the upcoming federal election * in autumn, the party around its chairman Christian Lindner could now develop into a kingmaker - or better said: a chancellor-maker. Not so long ago it looked extremely unfavorable for the Free Democrats, as they were scratching the five percent threshold. They even failed in the 2013 federal election. But the FDP has been celebrating successes since spring 2021. And now, as the fourth strongest force, it could tip the scales as to which party will seize the scepter of power in the Federal Chancellery from autumn.

In the federal election on September 26th, four parties are expected to fight for participation in the government: the Union, the Greens, the SPD - and the FDP.

While the Chancellor candidates Annalena Baerbock *, Olaf Scholz * and Armin Laschet * are in the heated election campaign in the last few weeks before the election, participation in government seems almost set for the Free Democrats.

Looking at the current polls, it looks as if the future formation of a government would only be possible with Lindner's party.

He can laugh up his sleeve.

It would be an immense success for the FPD leader if he could lead his party comrades into government after the 2017 federal election - and years in the opposition.

Federal election 2021: Will FDP leader Lindner and his party become chancellor?

The current RTL / ntv trend barometer * sees the FDP in favor of voters at twelve percent. Since April, the party has been in double-digit polls almost unbroken, at times even at 14 percent. This is remarkable in that the FDP was apparently in free fall between 2020 and early 2021. The Kemmerich scandal in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the lurching in dealing with the corona virus - the party looked clearly battered. But now the U-turn: A federal government that has come under criticism due to the Corona policy; two candidates for chancellor playing rope with each other; All of this makes the FDP's popularity curve seem to rise.

At least the above-mentioned survey result shows that it would currently neither be enough for a black-green alliance nor for a coalition of the Greens and the SPD or of the Union and the SPD.

It currently takes three parties for a coalition.

According to the figures of the Forsa survey, the following alliances currently have a majority: Black-Yellow-Green ("Jamaica"), the very alliance that resulted in the departure of the FDP from the coalition talks in 2017, a coalition of CDU / CSU, SPD and FDP (a German coalition as planned in Saxony-Anhalt), the so-called “traffic light” made up of the Greens, SPD and FDP and also a left alliance of the Greens, SPD and Left.

Jamaica alliance possible after the federal election in 2021 - Lindner is meanwhile toying with the Ministry of Finance

Apparently, the heart of the FDP * is currently beating for the Jamaica coalition: “During the joint opposition period, there was a lot of exchange and parliamentary cooperation. Just think of the Wirecard committee of inquiry or joint proceedings before the Federal Constitutional Court. Despite the many differences in content, personal relationships of trust were able to grow, ”ntv quotes an FDP MP.

FDP leader Christian Lindner himself sees a Jamaica alliance with the Union and the Greens and the German coalition as "equal options" *. One thing is clear to him: the path leads to governance. A preference is also already known. The 42-year-old squinted at the Treasury. "If we have the opportunity to design, that would be my offer," he told the

. In the ARD summer interview, he was again brought up for discussion as finance minister *.

In a recent tweet, Lindner is also self-confident: “From @faznet: 'In terms of tax policy, @ArminLaschet was not ready to commit to definitely foregoing # tax increases;

Instead, he said he wanted to 'do everything possible to prevent a tax increase' ”, commented the FDP party leader.

And adds: "Sounds like the @fdp is needed." Nevertheless: Whether the FDP will really participate in government is open.

Polls are only snapshots, the election campaign is still in full swing.

But the liberals have the coalition negotiating table firmly in their sights - they want to participate in government.

List of rubric lists: © Christophe Gateau