Eduardo Paladini
08/12/2021 11:57
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/12/2021 11:59 AM
One month before
PASO 2021
,
Clarín
analyzes the electoral scenario in the five main districts of the country.
The
two Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe and Mendoza
, which account for two thirds of the voters of the entire country.
There,
nine seats of national senators and 71 of deputies
will be renewed
, which may determine key changes in the relationship of forces in the national Congress.
But also, in this handful of provinces + CABA,
the main leaders of the ruling party or the opposition will play their chips for 2023
.
Directly or indirectly.
With their own candidacies or promoting allies that can pave the way for them.
Clarín
accessed
19
electoral
polls
from the five districts:
six from the province of Buenos Aires, six from the City, three from Córdoba, three from Santa Fe and one from Mendoza
.
Except for the latter, in addition to the general reading on how the voting intention of the main spaces is, the rest include very interesting internal ones.
Buenos Aires (province): adjusted advantage of the Frente de Todos
The province of Buenos Aires concentrates about 37% of the register and renews
35 seats of national deputies.
Those who risk the most?
The Front of All, with 16;
and Together for the Change, with 13. The former would need more than 45 points to come out at least tied, while the main opposition space would have to approach 40.
It happens that although in 2017 Cambiemos won the Buenos Aires election and got more seats,
then a deputy left that space
(Pablo Ansaloni).
Contrary to what happened with Kirchnerism, which was second with Unidad Ciudadana, but now
adds the seats that Sergio Massa got at the time with the Frente Renovador
.
To the 16 formal FdT, even those of two current allies can be added
: the aforementioned Ansaloni and Eduardo "Bali" Bucca, who entered through the Lavagnismo and a few weeks ago made the leap to the ruling party.
More complex still.
In recent weeks, five consulting firms and a university released data from Buenos Aires.
Management & Fit (M&F), Ricardo Rouvier, CB, Circuitos, the National University of La Matanza (UNLM), Jorge Giacobbe and Trends.
The first four win the Frente de Todos and the remaining two, Together for Change.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in the Province of Buenos Aires
Based on provincial surveys of 800 to 2,664 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
On average,
with an undecided level of about 14 points, the ruling party is close to 34% and JxC to 30%
.
Details: this last space has two applicants (
Diego Santilli and Facundo Manes)
.
When they measure only one as a representative of the force (thinking about the general election in November), the former vice chief of Buenos Aires clearly does better than the radical neuroscientist.
Santilli is also ahead of Manes when they measure the two together: he averages about 21 points against 13 of his rival.
Of the rest of the candidates, with the same average of 5%,
both Randazzo and José Luis Espert would be ensuring their entry into the lower house, although not much more than that
.
Also waiting are
Nicolas del Caño
from the FIT and
Guillermo Moreno
(with his own set up).
They are close to 3 points.
In the case of the former Secretary of Commerce with a lot of dispersion of figures: some give it with 5% and others, with less than 1%.
For the left it is a big challenge, since it renews two places.
Buenos Aires (City): clear advantage of Together for Change
The City concentrates 7.65% of the electoral roll (fourth), but it is the
second district that renews the most deputies: 13
.
In this case, Juntos por el Cambio risks the vast majority of the benches (10), because those who won Cambiemos and Evolución separately come together, when Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Martín Lousteau were rivals.
It seems
very difficult for JxC not to lose Buenos Aires seats
.
It should exceed 55 points to come out level.
Unlike the Frente de Todos, which in 2017 made a barely regular election, around 20 points (3 seats), and now it could add some more place.
Six consultants recently measured in CABA:
M&F, Rouvier, Giacobbe, CB, Proyección and the Observatory of Psychology (OPSA) of the UBA
.
Here the coincidences are broader:
at the space level Juntos por el Cambio wins
and in that intern,
María Eugenia Vidal
prevails
over the lists headed by
Ricardo López Murphy
and
Adolfo Rubinstein
.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in the City of Buenos Aires
Based on polls from Buenos Aires of 600 to 1,500 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
On average, JxC takes almost 20 points to the only ballot of the FdT, led by Leandro Santoro: 44% against 25%. Of the rest, the great unknown is Javier Milei, the liberal economist of "La Libertad Avanza": he averages interesting 8 points, which would guarantee his entry into Deputies. If it grows a little more and exceeds double digits, it could already be excited about a second bank.
In the JxC PASO,
Vidal is around 30 points, against just over 10 for López Murphy and between 3 and 4 for Rubinstein
.
Will the former governor celebrate with these numbers?
Doubtful.
It seems clearer that if the "Bulldog" touches the double digits he will be satisfied.
More relegated are the different variants on the left
, which in 2017 added about 10 points.
Now, from the FIT,
Myriam Bregman
borders the 4 points;
and
Luis Zamora
, from Self-determination and Freedom, does not reach 3. There is an average of 13% undecided to be defined.
Córdoba: advantage of Together for Change, with an internal partner
Years ago, Córdoba became the
second district with the most voters in the country (8.71% of the total)
, in addition to incubating a very strong anti-Kirchnerism.
This year, he also
renews senators
: two from Together for Change and one from the Frente de Todos.
Of the
new seats of national deputies
that are also put into play, five are from JxC, three from We do for Córdoba (HxC, the space of the Peronist governor Juan Schiaretti) and one from the FdT.
Three consultants measured in the last days in Cordoba land:
CB, Opinions and Trends and Federico González
.
Coincidences?
Together for the Change prevails comfortable, with the sum of its four internal lists (42 average points);
second comes HxC (20), which would thus snatch a senator from the FdT (13), which is third.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in Córdoba
Based on provincial surveys of 810 to 998 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
In reality, HxC
would be recovering what they took out of him
: in 2015,
Carlos Caserio
got his place in the upper house allied to Schiaretti, but in 2019 he jumped into the space of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner. Now it will try to renew from there: difficult. Best positioned is
Alejandra Vigo
, the governor's wife, who heads the HxC list for the Senate.
Regarding the internal JxC, there is no unanimity in the numbers. Two consultants (
CB
and
Opinions and Trends
) give up the pair Luis Judge senator - Rodrigo de Loredo deputy (with 19.9% and 23.1%) over Mario Negri - Gustavo Santos (16.6% and 20.2% );
while a third (
Federico González
), puts Negri-Santos first (23.2% against Judge-De Loredo 19.1%).
Santa Fe: three very hot interns and couples
It is the
third electoral district with the most voters (8.18% of the total)
and it also
renews senators' seats
: two from the Frente de Todos and one allied to Juntos por el Cambio (the one that the late Carlos Reutemann had won in 2015).
In addition,
nine deputies
are put into play
: five from Together for Change, three from the Frente de Todos and one from the Progressive Front.
The scenario is even and with a particularity:
the three majority forces in the province have very hot inmates
.
Two lists in the Front of All, four in Together for Change and two in the Progressive Front (FP).
In the general sum of the three consulting firms that measured in Santa Fe (
Grupo MAS, Federico González and Raúl Aragón
), JxC averages almost 34 points with its four ballots, against just over 28 for the FdT and 19 for the FP.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in Santa Fe
Based on provincial surveys of 1,200 to 4,000 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
As for the inmates,
the numbers again anticipate close fights and open ending. Especially in Together for Change
: in two polls the journalist
Carolina Losada
(head of the Senate)
prevails
and in one
Federico Angelini
(vice of the PRO and with
Amalia Granata
as a running mate). But the other two variants (
José Corral
and
Marcelo Pullaro
) do not go that far.
In the
Frente de Todos, in the three studies, the list of former minister Agustín Rossi appears above that of Marcelo Lewandosky
, who has the support of Governor
Omar Perotti
(alternate candidate), plus that of Alberto F. and Cristina.
Rossi averages four points more than his rival: 16 to 12 in gross numbers.
In the
Progressive Front,
meanwhile, in all three there is also the same winner (
Clara García
, widow of former governor Miguel Lifschitz, over former socialist senator Rubén Giustiniani), but also with even figures: 10.7% to 8.3% %.
Mendoza: you feel the anti K climate
The
fifth province with the most voters in the country (4.22% of the total)
also has the plus of
renewing senators
: two radicals from JxC and one from the FdT.
In addition,
five places
are at stake
in Deputies
: three from JxC and two from FdT.
In this case,
Clarín
accessed a single survey, from
DyC Consultores
.
And the list headed by the current radical senator
Alfredo Cornejo
, who seeks to renew, more than doubles that of the Kichnerista
Anabel Fernández Sagasti
(very close to Cristina):
48.1% to 20.9%
.
v1.7 0421
Voting intention in Mendoza
Based on a provincial survey of 690 cases.
In %
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
When asked about the heads for Deputies, that proportion is repeated but on lower scales: the radical
Julio Cobos
adds 36.5% against only 14.8% of the Kirchnerista
Adolfo Bermejo
.
Due to the polarization that is perceived (Mendoza competes with Córdoba as the anti-K capital of Argentina) it
seems difficult for a third force to reach the 20 points that are needed to obtain a seat
for the lower house and the distribution could remain as it has been until now .
