The probability that the asteroid Bennu will hit the Earth increases: this will be the most dangerous day

By Marcia Dunn - The Associated Press

Scientists have been tracking the asteroid Bennu for years, but new research now sheds more light on its future.

The good news is that its trajectory for the next 200 years is better known.

The bad news is that the probability of this gigantic rock hitting Earth is slightly higher than previously thought.

But do not be alarmed: it is still, despite everything, quite low.

"We shouldn't worry too much," said Davide Farnocchia, study author and scientist at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies in California.

Although the odds of an impact have gone from one in 2,700 to one in 1,750 in the next century or two, scientists now have a much better idea of ​​Bennu's trajectory thanks to NASA's

Osiris-REx

spacecraft. .

"I think that, in general, the situation has improved," he said.

The spacecraft is heading back to Earth from a long journey after collecting samples from the large pile of spinning debris from the asteroid, considered one of the two most dangerous in our solar system.

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Before

Osiris-REx

arrived at Bennu in 2018, telescopes provided a solid view of the asteroid, about a third of a mile in diameter.

The spacecraft then collected enough data over two and a half years to help scientists better predict the asteroid's orbital path in the future.

Their findings, published in the trade journal Icarus, should also help chart the trajectory of other asteroids and give Earth a better chance to prepare if another dangerous rock heads its way here.

Before

Osiris-REx

came on the scene, scientists put the odds of Bennu hitting Earth up to the year 2200 to be 1 in 2,700.

It is now 1 in 1,750 through the year 2300. The day of greatest threat is September 24, 2182.

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Bennu will have a close encounter with Earth in 2135, when it passes half the distance from the moon.

Earth's gravity could alter its future trajectory and put it on a collision course with our planet in 2200, somewhat less likely based on

Osiris-REx

observations 

.

If Bennu collided with Earth, it would not end life on the planet in the style of dinosaurs, but would create a crater 10 to 20 times the size of the asteroid, according to Lindley Johnson, NASA's planetary defense officer. .

The area of ​​devastation would be much larger - up to 100 times the size of the crater.

If an object the size of Bennu were to collide with the East Coast of the United States, "it would devastate practically the entire area," he explained.

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Scientists believe they are ahead of Bennu, which was discovered in 1999, because finding a dangerous asteroid early increases the chances of getting it out of our way, Johnson said.

"In 100 years, who knows what technology we will have?" He said.

NASA plans to launch a mission in November that will test whether it is possible to deflect an asteroid from its course by hitting it.