Israel may try to influence what happens in Afghanistan Israel today

According to U.S. intelligence estimates, senior U.S. defense officials have estimated that the Taliban will be able to isolate Kabul within 30 days - and 90 days - to take control of all of Afghanistan. That was four days ago.

Without a fight: The Taliban take over Jalalabad in Afghanistan // Photo: Reuters

Taliban fighters stormed Kabul today (Sunday), encountering minimal resistance from the Afghan army, on which the United States has spent trillions of dollars over the past 20 years. The Americans will leave the city in peace.

This illustrates how much the dynamics between the US and the Taliban have changed, after 20 years of bloody war.

Afghanistan's neighbor, Pakistan, has repeatedly been accused of playing a double game in Afghanistan, which on the one hand openly supports the United States but on the other hand covertly strengthens its ties with the Afghan Taliban.

However, today, when the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is almost inevitable, there is a sense of joy in some districts in Islamabad that they may always have predicted that the Taliban would eventually win the war in Afghanistan - and played well with their "cards".

Aid trucks from Pakistan to Afghanistan,

No other country has a lever on the Taliban like Pakistan, a country against which it has been claimed to have supported the organization even in their darkest hours.

As the world prepares for the Taliban-controlled reality of Afghanistan, many people are trying to figure out what kind of country it will be.

The Taliban have already launched a wave of violence, marking their general worldview.

The armed organization killed a well-known comedian from Kandahar, Nazar Muhammad (also known as Hasha Zwan), who became famous for his satirical humor and presence on social media.

Journalists and former government officials have faced similar violence in areas where the Taliban have begun to exercise their authority, illustrating that in the absence of a US presence - there is no security for the safety of Afghan citizens.

For women, this seems to be the worst reality of all - with the Taliban forcing 15-year-old girls to marry the organization's fighters without consent, even if Taliban spokesmen choose to deny it.

The Taliban's military prowess may not be enough to control and operate a country with close to 40 million civilians, who have so far witnessed signs of democracy.

Afghanistan's relations with its neighbors, including Iran, will take a significant turn because the Taliban are interested in establishing their presence as an accepted reality in the world, and not as a passing appearance.

In 1998, the Taliban seized control of the Iranian consulate in Mazar a-Sharif and murdered Iranian diplomats.

Tensions between the two countries escalated when Iran threatened to start a war against Afghanistan, but refrained from doing so due to the then efforts of the UN Security Council.

Last week, the Iranian Border Police stepped up alert, after the Taliban captured the city of Zarange in the border area between the two countries.

The enmity between the Iranian leadership and the Afghan Taliban is not only due to regional competition, but also has religious characteristics that give their signals.

Taliban members are mostly Sunnis, adherents of the flattering school while Iran is mostly Shiite, which is another wedge between the neighbors.

Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, AFP

Another aspect is the refugee crisis, as some 750,000 Afghan refugees are currently in Iran.

More Afghans are likely to flee to Iran, and even Pakistan.

However, if Iran closes the border, their plight may remain unanswered.

One factor that may find common ground between Iran and the Afghan Taliban is anti-Americanism, in which the leaderships of the two countries express their public hostility to the United States.

However, the gaps between Iran and Afghanistan are so deeply rooted that the possibility of meaningful cooperation between the two countries seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, it is not inconceivable that Israel, through its Gulf partnerships, will try to indirectly influence the Taliban - and establish its own presence in Afghanistan.

It is important to remember that during the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan (1996-1991), only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkmenistan officially recognized the Taliban-led country.

At the same time, Israel may use Qatar, the country that hosted the talks in which it sought to reach a political settlement between the Taliban and the Afghan government led by Ashraf Ghani, in order to create roads to Afghanistan under Taliban control.

However, as things stand today, the road to Kabul passes through Islamabad.

Hamza Azhar Salam is a Pakistani journalist.

He is the founder and editor of the Pakistan Daily website, and has worked as a London correspondent for the Pakistani website The News. 

Hamza's Twitter page Azhar Salam