With The Tail Between The Legs: The American Dream And Broken In Afghanistan Israel today

The intensity of the drama currently unfolding in Afghanistan cannot be overstated.

Not every day you see rule rule live, not every day you see the powerful power in the world fleeing with its tail between its legs, and not every day you see the victory of absolute evil over sanity and hope.

The Americans have spent 20 years in Afghanistan, and who knows how many hundreds of billions of dollars.

What began as revenge for the 9/11 attacks and an (failed) attempt to destroy al-Qaeda and its hosts, the Taliban regime, has become an effort to turn the backward country into a Western democracy, with modern symbols.

As part of this, an attempt was made to build a new state in Afghanistan, in the image and likeness of the West.

With democratic institutions and orderly democratic procedures (as far as possible in a tribal state, far ahead of large parts of it), with an armed and trained army, and with abundant foreign investment designed to give the average Afghan a new horizon and a better future than his past.

But this difficult region seems to need more than that, or it is simply impossible.

The Americans failed exactly where the Russians failed three decades before them: realizing that by force alone one might be deterred and restrained, but probably not reverse world orders that have existed for thousands of years.

The sign for this was on the wall all the time, but the Americans insisted on ignoring it.

Moreover, they signed the withdrawal agreement with the same Taliban organization they wanted to get rid of, thus also giving it a kosher stamp.

From here, the slope was already slippery;

The announcement of their intention to withdraw only pressured Fast-Forward on the processes.

The United States does not seem to have missed a single mistake or a minefield on the way to Afghanistan's tragedy. To stop the uprising, and in fact watched it from the sidelines.They were also alarmingly wrong in their intelligence assessment of the duration of the collapse, when the three months they estimated (until the Taliban took over Kabul) became three days.

Defeated Empire

The Americans also failed when they set a set date for their departure from the country.

It would be enough to recall the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, which turned into a rapid collapse, to know that such processes are ahead of their own, and the area is adapting to what is to come. The new.

These events will have dramatic consequences, including for Israel.

The Taliban will not change its skin;

He will return to being an extremist, oppressive and cruel organization, which rules its authority with an iron fist, and will willingly host the worst of humanity's enemies.

The same places that used to be al-Qaeda's terrorist habitat will be used by him (and others) to train and plan for future terrorism, in the name of that extremist and murderous Islam.

Taliban leaders celebrate at the presidential palace in Kabul, Reuters

Worse is the message that will get to the area.

The Americans are perceived not as those who withdrew, but as those who fled.

The images from Kabul are reminiscent of those from Vietnam in the 1970s.

They are not a victorious state, but a defeated empire.

The lesson will be seen and internalized throughout the world.

Its immediate consequences will be in the Middle East, and especially in Iraq - the next destination from which the Americans plan to retreat later.

It is likely that they will now be under pressure to do so.

Iran will use the Shiite militias under its control to tail the Americans in Iraq, and as the bodies pile up, internal pressure will increase in the US to retreat. Done in the Middle East, and draws his attention to other regions of the world.

Those who will benefit from this are the negative factors in the region, led by Iran.

Tehran does have mixed feelings about what is happening in Afghanistan: on the one hand, it is happy about the fall of the "Great Devil" from Washington, on the other hand, it is afraid of Afghan refugees who will join the millions of refugees who have been in Iran for many years.

But in a broader, strategic view, joy will overcome the concern: the Iranians will see in recent days evidence that even the most powerful power can blink and flee.

The consequences for Israel's security will be immediate.

It can be estimated that the courage of the terrorist organizations will increase (especially of those operating under the Iranian umbrella).

This will require Israel to invest more in defense and deterrence, knowing it is alone.

This lesson should also be remembered in other contexts - from excessive reliance on peace agreements, to thoughts of reducing investment in security.

At the end of the day, we live in a volatile region, and as has been proven again in Afghanistan - today's hope may be instantly replaced by tomorrow's threat.