The Taliban's plan to take over Afghanistan 2:56
(CNN) -
In late 2001, the hills west of Maidan Shahr in Afghanistan were marked by black eruptions of high-explosives, as the last of the Taliban fighters were hit by Northern Alliance artillery and American bombers. .
Then, as suddenly as thunder, there was silence on the battlefield.
Immediately, long columns of combatants in black turbans began to walk peacefully towards their enemies and, entering their ranks, they were asked, "What happened?"
A Taliban fighter smiled widely and explained, "We twirled our turbans."
Without the slightest shame, or doubt, their leaders had decided that they would rather be on the winning side than die senseless.
And so they surrendered, many choosing to join the opposition forces.
But this does not mean that the hard core have renounced the Deobandist interpretation of Islam that had helped bring them to power in 1996, which also fit comfortably with their largely ethnic Pashtun culture.
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The ideology originally grew among students, the Taliban, of Islamic schools largely in exile in Pakistan, where refugees sought refuge from the failed Soviet invasion of their country in 1979. Powered by money from the Arabian Gulf and backed Through sponsors within Pakistan's intelligence agencies, the Taliban distilled their version of Islam into a purist cult.
With Afghanistan torn apart by warlords, corruption and hatred, that cult was seen by many in Kandahar as the harsh alternative of law and order to the horror they were living through.
The Taliban rose to its heart in 1994 and, within two years, were able to attack much of the rest of the country and seize power.
And now, 25 years later, they have done it again.
Minute by minute: Taliban take Afghanistan
The government of Afghanistan has always been weak, intensely corrupt, dependent on foreign forces for its survival, divided by factional fighting, and tainted by warlords.
So when the Afghan National Army was abruptly abandoned by the US and its allies earlier this year, the only question was: when will its commanders turn their own turbans?
The antecedent of 2001
In 2001, the Taliban were ousted from power by the Northern Alliance and groups of other warlords because many Afghans had grown tired of their medieval interpretation of Sharia law, tired also of being dominated by Pashtuns. from the south and above all very angry at the destruction of the extremely lucrative opium trade.
With a value of around US $ 4 billion a year, it was, and is, Afghanistan's main export and a business that attracted rival bosses (khans), the police, the militia, Pakistani spies, truck mafias and the Kabul elite.
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By ending him, the Taliban made staunch enemies at home, just as they became dangerous enemies to the rest of the Western world by providing al Qaeda with sanctuary before, during and after Osama bin Laden ordered the attacks of 11 September. September in the United States.
But the Taliban had never had an interest in international terror.
Their support for al Qaeda was based on a shared history.
Bin Laden and his followers had fought alongside the Afghan mujahideen, who had resisted the Soviet occupation after 1979. They were old comrades, allowed to establish training camps and remain under Pashtunwali, a tradition of cultural law which, among others things things, protect the guests.
Helmand's atol
During the Taliban insurgency of the past 20 years, their leadership - which according to NATO, the US government and Kabul is backed by Pakistan - saw foreign forces get caught up in the Helmand quagmire.
They have shed blood, treasure and public support for a distant and pointless war.
Two disastrous decisions in Helmand, first to invade and second to try to destroy the opium trade, ensured that a peaceful agricultural province producing gigantic wealth would become a battlefield and graveyard for foreign forces.
The Taliban could rely on the drug khans to do most of the fighting against NATO.
All the Taliban had to do was help from time to time.
The lesson for students of guerrilla warfare was that, very soon, the West would lose its stomach from fighting.
Since NATO had the clocks, the Taliban had time, as they liked to say.
All they had to do was wait.
And take a tithe from the drug production that allowed them to fall from power.
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According to numerous Western intelligence sources involved in drug eradication attempts, the Taliban did not get their funds primarily from drugs.
The experts and the UN say they had various sources of funding, including private donors in the Gulf, from illegal mineral extraction and from taxes in the areas they controlled.
A terrifying future for women
His return to power is a terrifying prospect for women.
The last time they ruled, they were forbidden to attend school.
They were draped in burqas, condemned to home life, and viewed as male possessions.
An ultra-conservative interpretation of how pre-modern Pashtun lived was swept away amid an explosion in female education.
Women in the capital Kabul were able to start businesses, participate in politics, even in provincial governments, and run ministries.
It's no wonder that liberal Afghans are now showing up at the airport now.
Their only hope may lie in the reality that the Taliban can, conceivably and probably only in the short term, offer concessions on women's rights and even some protection for freedom of expression.
In some of the provinces where she has ruled for the past 20 years, they have adapted their public relations, allowing the limitation of women's rights.
Above all, they have earned a reputation for judicial probity that the central government system never achieved.
Now approaching power, Taliban leaders may choose to follow a "Talib-Lite" approach.
An unlikely resurgence of al Qaeda
They will almost certainly offer no relief to the Islamic State militants who have largely replaced al Qaeda as the leading global brand behind international Islamist terrorism.
In the past five years, the Taliban have successfully eliminated most attempts by ISIS rivals to gain ground.
While the pro-Western government was in power, its intelligence leaders played on the threat from al Qaeda.
But there is little evidence that the Taliban have offered him active support.
There are many reasons to suppose that since there is no advantage in promoting international terrorism and there is no ideological support for it within your own movement, a resurgence of al Qaeda under the Taliban regime is unlikely, although a UN report recently warned that the two groups remain "closely aligned".
The Taliban are returning to power.
But they know this is because many have turned turbans that can be turned back on.
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