The birthday photo of the first Argentine lady tests the electoral strength of Peronism

The front pages of Argentine newspapers reflect on August 13 the scandal over the photo of the first lady's birthday celebrated during the most restrictive stage of the quarantine against covid-19. DemianAldayEstevez / EFE

The political evidence says that Peronism divides itself on prosperity and unites in the face of adversity.

This seamless pragmatism has allowed it to dominate, by presence or absence, Argentine politics for the last 80 years.

One month before the primary legislative elections, the adversity is capital and all the lines of Peronism have presented lists with unique candidates.

The opposition, on the other hand, has decided to resolve the tensions of its coalition at the polls.

But that unity of Peronism is in danger because of a photo.

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The image in question shows the first lady, Fabiola Yáñez, and a dozen friends celebrating her birthday at the official residence in Olivos. On the scene is Alberto Fernández, who, like the rest, smiles at the camera without a mask or preventive distance. The photo was leaked to the press last week, but it was taken on July 14, 2020. There were no vaccines against covid-19 at the time and the quarantine against the pandemic was in its hardest stage, with the population confined to their homes , shops closed and meetings and travel prohibited. President Fernández warned on television that he would apply the law against “the living” who did not respect the confinement, while he accused the opposition of campaigning against the confinement.

Fernández first questioned the veracity of the photo and considered the meetings in Olivos “work meetings”. Then he gave in to the evidence and apologized for a "toast" organized by his "dear Fabiola" that "shouldn't have happened." It is still too early to measure the electoral impact of the photo, but there will undoubtedly be consequences. The conservative opposition, gathered in the Juntos por el Cambio front, led by former President Mauricio Macri, has asked the president for impeachment for violating his own quarantine decree, while a case is advancing in court to establish possible criminal responsibilities. The president, meanwhile, resists the friendly fire of leaders and like-minded journalists who warn about the devaluation of the presidential word. "This time, the opposition is right," said Víctor Hugo Morales,one of the most respected voices of Kirchnerism in the media.

Argentina's President Alberto Fernández (left) poses with a dozen other guests during the birthday celebration of his wife, Fabiola Yáñez (third from left), on July 14, 2020.

In this fragile scenario, Peronism will test its electoral strength and its ability to stay united.

Argentina will renew on November 14 127 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate.

“As in any mid-term election, what the presidential election may be will be judged, with a predictable conclusion.

If he wins, Fernández gets stronger and increases his chances for 2023. If he loses, the opposition's chances grow, ”says political scientist Eduardo Fidanza, director of Poliarquía Consultores.

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To know the result, it may not be necessary to wait for November.

The Argentine system has a previous function that is as important as the stellar one.

It is called, without much pomp, simultaneous and compulsory open primaries.

The order of the terms has allowed to reduce the quote simply to STEP.

And today all Argentines speak "of the STEP."

The PASO define which candidates will represent the parties in November, but it works, in practice, like a national poll without margin of error that puts black on white in the electoral quality of each candidate.

In the 2019 primaries, the sum of votes of the Peronist candidates far exceeded that of Mauricio Macri. It was evidence that there would be a change of government in the generals that were coming. Argentina then experienced an economic crash without precedent due to its speed and depth. In just 24 hours, the dollar rose 23% relative to the Argentine peso and the shares of local companies fell 60 points. The market had staked everything on Macri and was shocked by the return of Kirchnerism. In October, finally, Alberto Fernández repeated the results of the PASO and in the second round he became president.

A crack like the one in 2019 is not to be expected now, because the market already has little to lose. As a result of the pandemic, the Argentine economy fell more than 9% last year, poverty rose to 42% in the second half of last year and inflation is already above 50% per year. Nor will there be major changes in Congress, which is today in the hands of Peronism, grouped in the Frente de Todos. The polls anticipate that the coalition will obtain 33% of the votes, enough to maintain the status quo: without its own quorum, but with a majority. That is why all eyes will be on the plebiscite nature of the election. Alberto Fernández needs a victory that legitimizes his strategy against the pandemic and the economic crisis. The opposition is betting on wearing down the figure of the president to have options in the general elections of 2023. Faced with the challenge,Peronism played the card of unity.

"When Peronism does well or someone measures in the polls, they set aside any difference," says Mariel Fornoni, managing partner of the Management and Fit consultancy. “The opposition, on the other hand, is not organized vertically. There are a lot of Peronists who detest Cristina Kirchner and will go with her in the PASO. That was always the case, and it continues to be so ”, he explains. The unity of Peronism will guarantee victory in the province of Buenos Aires, which with 40% of the electorate defines any election. The opposition coalition Juntos por el Cambio fights a tough fight in that district between the centennial Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) and the Pro of Mauricio Macri. In the city of Buenos Aires, where the macrista Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the most “presidential” leader of the opposition, governs, three candidates will contest a place on the ballot.“The enemy there is more the one from space itself. For the ruling party, the weak point is the economy, but if it can contain the dollar and generate something that shows signs of recovery, it will have a good result ”, says Fornoni.

The photo of the birthday in Olivos, however, can upset everything. Although it is too early to know the impact it will have at the polls. A quick survey carried out by the Fornoni consultancy between August 13 and 14 established that 76% of the 1,200 respondents considered the violation of the quarantine in the official residence “serious or very serious”. And what is more serious for the ruling party: 23% said they were going to vote for the Peronist candidates and now they will change their vote. The key will be in the ability of the opposition to keep the issue alive, in an environment where, despite the scandal, the concerns of Argentines go through the economic crisis, inflation and the growth of poverty. And in the strength of the ruling party to maintain unity, despite the anger that the photo generated among the partners, especially the Kirchnerists.There is a month to go before the primaries, and in Argentine politics that is the closest thing to a life.

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