Paula Lugones
08/17/2021 16:05
Clarín.com
World
Updated 08/17/2021 4:05 PM
Hugo Llorens
knows Kabul and the complexities of the Afghan situation very well because he lived there for several years as ambassador of the United States, in a first stage, between 2012 and 2013, and then between 2016 and 2017, when the agreement between the president was created. Donald Trump and the Taliban, whom Llorens
considers to be "the original sin" of the disaster that is being seen today
in Afghanistan.
The diplomat, who for years led the largest and most staffed US embassy in the world, believes that President Joe Biden made a
"mistake that will be a stain on his legacy"
with the hasty and total withdrawal of troops, but on everything from air support to the Afghan army, which it considers essential.
In an interview with
Clarín
, the diplomat says that the images that arrive from Kabul "break his heart" and affirms that Afghanistan has been "a failure worse than Vietnam" for his country and now fears for the situation of women and men. the young people, who had made amazing progress.
He warns that the symbol that means the United States and its main allies have been defeated in Afghanistan is going to embolden terrorists not only in Afghanistan but in any country.
"It is a security threat to the entire world," he
said.
Are you surprised by what is happening in Afghanistan right now?
President Biden has very hastily withdrawn US forces.
That is the key event that puts us in this situation.
I respect the president very much, he is a good person.
I have known him since he was a senator since the 1980s. He is a person who knows foreign policy very well, but in this case he made a strategic mistake.
Nothing surprises me.
I had already warned that this would result in a catastrophic situation for both Afghanistan and the United States and their allies.
But the collapse was sooner than I anticipated.
I know the military equation very well from all the time I spent in Afghanistan and I was planning to see by October, November, the fall of all capitals and urban areas and perhaps, at the end of the year, the fall of Kabul.
Afghan internally displaced persons in Kabul.
AP Photo
Why do you think the Taliban were able to advance so fast?
I see France in 1940, when it was defeated in 6 weeks by the Germans. It was an internal demoralization and that started earlier. Original sin comes with President Donald Trump. When I was an ambassador in 2017, we helped him form a policy. The concept was to keep a small US and NATO force, maintain about 8,500 US servicemen and a small contingent of aircraft, something that would be very effective. The Afghans were in the leadership, they were doing 95% of the fighting and taking 99% of the casualties. But we had a strategic effect using a small number of special forces, but more important was air cover. This air force had 80, 90 planes, nothing more, but it was very effective because it indicated to the Afghans where the enemy was and that is very important in a battle.They also made sure that the Afghan army was supplied, that it had water and bullets. That was over in weeks, in two months. This brought an immediate effect.
Arturo Valenzuela and Hugo Llorens, when he was ambassador to Honduras.
Reuters photo
Why do you say that the "original sin" belongs to President Trump?
It was he who negotiated an agreement that I consider to be one of the worst the United States has signed in the 40 years that I have been involved in diplomacy.
We were basically surrendering to the Taliban.
That February 29, 2020 agreement had a very large psychological impact on both the Afghan government and the security forces.
They already saw the abandonment.
President Trump tried to use the Afghanistan issue as a political war to say that he was ending "endless wars."
Why do you say that this agreement was so bad
?
The agreement with the Taliban had four elements. One was the withdrawal of US troops by May 1, 2021. Second, that the Taliban committed to severing relations with Al Qaeda, and third, that the Taliban committed to reducing violence until a cessation of violence was reached. fire. Finally, they promised to begin serious negotiations with the government of Afghanistan to achieve a peace agreement. President Trump, in the middle of the election campaign, began to reduce the troops much faster than we had agreed in that bad agreement and that has had a very negative impact. When President Biden took office there was a commitment to withdraw troops on May 1, 2021 but the Taliban had not responded on their part. Intelligence suggested that they maintained close relations with Al Queda,they were intensifying their military operations in Afghanistan and at no time had they negotiated in good faith with the government of Afghanistan. So Biden could have said, "I'm going to take a break, I'm not going to withdraw the troops, I'm going to give 6 months" to talk to the Taliban and see if they implemented their part of the agreement. But instead Biden unplugged everything. A situation was generated that had been deteriorating and really now collapsed. I believe that Biden did not take into account that the air cover could not be removed from the armed forces of Afghanistan overnight and without any transition. That had a catastrophic effect and we could see it."I am going to take a break, I am not going to withdraw the troops, I am going to give 6 months" to speak with the Taliban and see if they implemented their part of the agreement. But instead Biden unplugged everything. A situation was generated that had been deteriorating and really now collapsed. I believe that Biden did not take into account that the air cover could not be removed from the armed forces of Afghanistan overnight and without any transition. That had a catastrophic effect and we could see it."I am going to take a break, I am not going to withdraw the troops, I am going to give 6 months" to speak with the Taliban and see if they implemented their part of the agreement. But instead Biden unplugged everything. A situation was generated that had been deteriorating and really now collapsed. I believe that Biden did not take into account that the air cover could not be removed from the armed forces of Afghanistan overnight and without any transition. That had a catastrophic effect and we could see it.I believe that Biden did not take into account that the air cover could not be removed from the armed forces of Afghanistan overnight and without any transition. That had a catastrophic effect and we could see it.I believe that Biden did not take into account that the air cover could not be removed from the armed forces of Afghanistan overnight and without any transition. That had a catastrophic effect and we could see it.
The Armed Forces
There is also talk of corruption in the Afghan forces, of demoralization, that they were bought to lay down their arms.
In Afghanistan there is a lot of corruption.
When we had those 8,500 troops, 2,500 were special forces and could be used in special moments in combat.
But really, the remaining 6,000 were advisers and those advisers were in the units of the Afghan army.
Their presence was very important because we made sure that the soldiers received their money, had food, that they would receive the bullets to fight.
When Trump began phasing out advisers, the situation began to deteriorate.
If a soldier is not paid and does not receive food, problems begin.
So a lot of what happened there was that they saw that we abandoned them.
Many military personnel and advisers had warned Biden of the situation. Why do you think you went ahead despite everything?
Since he was vice president of Barack Obama, he proposed a total withdrawal. My criticism is that Biden did not do an intellectual gymnastics. What had changed since 2010 or 2012? At that time we had 100,000 troops, the war was costing us 40,000 million dollars, we had hundreds of casualties every year. When I was ambassador in 2017 in that year 17,000 Taliban were killed, captured or wounded and with the Afghan army doing 95% of the fight. We only lost 5 troops from our army. Biden had a very strong opinion that we had to go, but really we were no longer at the front of this endless war, we were in a position behind. We had a very effective aerial use and advisory position. We were at a key moment.It is true that as Biden says there is no possible military victory for the United States, but we could achieve and ensure that the Taliban did not win and that the only option was to sit at the table and negotiate an agreement that would end the war.
Zabihullah Mujahid spokesman for the Taliban.
Photo EFE
Was the war in vain and 20 years were useless? Did you go back to the beginning, with the Taliban back in power?
This has been a total failure. America has been defeated by the Taliban. They never defeated us militarily, but we did not have the will to continue and they did. The first problem is that this has created a humanitarian tragedy for the Afghan people. There are already a million homeless people. There will be refugees, hungry people. So the danger is a Taliban regime in which we go back to that dark night where women are not going to have any rights, they cannot study. The Taliban are very fundamentalist people. All the progress that has been made in education, in health, in the economy or in rural electrification that has been achieved is in jeopardy. There was a liberal constitution, we were creating a platform that would have created stability for Afghanistan and also for the entire Central Asian region.All that is uncertain now: the Taliban have planted their flag in Kabul and there is a lot of concern on the humanitarian side.
Can Afghanistan become a platform for international terrorism? Can it go back to being a stronghold for Al Qaeda or other groups?
When I was an ambassador, we identified 20 terrorist groups that had operations in ungoverned areas of Afghanistan. The ecosystem where the Taliban operated was Al Qaeda or ISIS, it was like an international corporation of terrorist groups. With the collapse of a government that was pro-US and Western, I think there is a great chance that these groups will have a chance to reconstitute, strengthen themselves, and may end up being a threat to us in the end. The other thing is the symbol that means that the United States and its main allies have been defeated in Afghanistan: this is going to embolden all terrorists anywhere in the world and this effect is what we are going to see in the future.After September 11, the objective was to ensure that Afghanistan is not a platform so that terrorist groups do not attack us or our allies, and that includes Argentina, since they have also suffered attacks there. That was the strategic objective and we achieved it since there was no attack. But these days in the prisons that have been opened, many people from Al Qaeda have been released. That is going to take time, I don't think it will be overnight because those people have to reconstitute and train. But I think they are going to knock on our door one of these days.But these days in the prisons that have been opened, many people from Al Qaeda have been released. That is going to take time, I don't think it will be overnight because those people have to reconstitute and train. But I think they are going to knock on our door one of these days.But these days in the prisons that have been opened, many people from Al Qaeda have been released. That is going to take time, I don't think it will be overnight because those people have to reconstitute and train. But I think they are going to knock on our door one of these days.
The horror
At America's door or at everyone's door?
Of all the world.
I think it is a potential threat to the security of the whole world.
You lived in the Kabul embassy. How do you feel when you see the chaotic images of evacuations, of people hanging from airplanes, diplomats fleeing?
It is a very sad situation, it breaks my heart to see all this. We had our military who served in Afghanistan in a very honorable and very patriotic way, they fought hard and well. I had the largest embassy in the history of the world, it had a staff of 8,500 people and 22 government agencies. Many good things were achieved and that is why I think I can speak for many diplomats who got engaged and now saw how everything ended in a collapse. My personal opinion is that this did not have to happen at all, it was not inevitable. If we had had a little more patience and the president had not been so hasty in removing all the troops so quickly. I also feel sorry for the Afghan people,because one of the most interesting things is that a new generation of young people was being created who were going to change the country in a very radical way. At the time of the Taliban in 2001 there were 600,000 children and young people in school and university. Today they are 8.5 million. Before women could not go to school, today 40% of all students are women. When I was an ambassador, I met with women who were studying law or masters in business administration. They were to be the future of the country and now all this is in danger.When I was an ambassador, I met with women who were studying law or masters in business administration. They were to be the future of the country and now all this is in danger.When I was an ambassador, I met with women who were studying law or masters in business administration. They were to be the future of the country and now all this is in danger.
How do you think the Taliban will act? Do you think they are going to be like before or are they going to serve this new society that is not willing to go back in terms of social progress or women's rights?
Knowing the Taliban, you have to be very pessimistic.
But hopefully within the Taliban council they begin to understand that the country has changed so radically in the last 20 years, particularly in urban areas, where 55% of the people live.
We have to wait.
The United States has to keep the door open in case the Taliban are really willing to respect women, the rights of the youth.
There are many people who compare this withdrawal from Afghanistan to the fall of Saigon.
I think it is worse than Vietnam. Because the decision that President Richard Nixon made and the agreement to leave, which by the way was a bad agreement too, was that the United States had 500,000 men in Vietnam, 60,000 soldiers died, thousands of soldiers had their lives ruined and the people were in the street against the war. This was not the situation in Afghanistan. Of course we Americans want an endless war to end but there was not a great popular movement for us to get out of this war, our Afghan allies were the ones who were doing 95% of the fight and military stability had been achieved. We couldn't win, but at the same time they couldn't beat us. The saddest thing is that what is happening today was unnecessary. The president made a mistake that is going to be a black stain on his legacy.
Look also
"Will I be able to leave?", The desperate wait at the Kabul airport to leave Afghanistan
Afghanistan: Taliban less brutal, with amnesty and women's rights