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What the “stable survey trend” says for the CDU and the Greens - and who does well with which institute

2021-08-17T12:12:58.155Z


The well-known data expert David Kriesel would like to point out survey trends “beyond the screeching” before the federal election. The result is revealing.


The well-known data expert David Kriesel would like to point out survey trends “beyond the screeching” before the federal election.

The result is revealing.

  • The federal election in 2021 is approaching - the parties' polls drop and soar again and again.

  • The data expert David Kriesel, on the other hand, wants to show "stable trends" in his blog.

    You can also find an overview of the survey results at Merkur.de.

  • The computer scientist's visualizations also offer insight into another old question: which institute likes to rate which parties particularly highly?

Berlin / Bonn - A peculiar election campaign is taking place these days: A few weeks ago, Armin Laschet (CDU) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) seemed to be the only serious contenders to succeed Angela Merkel - since then, the two party leaders have been making a kind of faux pas -Race. The result, apparently: Violent survey fluctuations and downturns non-stop. And an SPD candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the undisputed leader in the Chancellor polls.

But apart from the regular kinks and craters in the survey curves of the major parties: How does the mood of the electorate develop in the Sunday questions?

The well-known computer scientist and data analyst David Kriesel continues to get to the bottom of this question on his website.

Explicitly with the aim of suppressing the current demoscopic excitement.

The result are some quite remarkable curves - and an insight into the outlier results of the individual institutes for certain parties.

Surveys before the general election: data expert is looking for “more stable trends” in the jungle of Sunday questions

Kriesel - who became known in 2013 after discovering a scanner bug at the industry giant Xerox - uses a statistical trick in his blog when processing the survey data of some of the largest polling institutes: he smooths a curve from the results from a good two weeks each. Each point of the graph along the time axis takes into account the Sunday questions of the previous and the following week - the exception is of course the course for the most recent seven days; here, after all, the full amount cannot be used over the next seven days.

"Individual data points weigh relatively little, rather you can see more stable trends," explains Kriesel himself on his homepage.

The result is an overview of the development over the long-term development and across several institutes.

Looking back on the 90 days from mid-May, one can clearly see that the Greens and Union started roughly on a par shortly after the Chancellor candidate freestyle - and well ahead of the SPD.

In the meantime, the curves are approaching again after an intermediate high by the CDU and CSU.

All three of them.

But that is hardly due to a strengthening of Baerbock's Greens.

Bundestag election: Survey development for Union, SPD, Greens - curve for Laschets election campaigners points downwards

The mean value curve shows: In mid-July, the Union was as far away as it had been since the beginning of the year.

Since then, the values ​​for Laschet and Co. have been on the decline again.

As a reminder: Just in mid-July, the devastating floods hit parts of West Germany.

Armin Laschet's crisis management quickly came under fire.

Unfavorable photos of the chancellor candidate from the crisis area presumably did the rest of the survey break-in.

The Greens, on the other hand, had been struggling hard since the beginning of May - probably also because of the continuous negative news about Annalena Baerbock.

By the middle to the end of July, the mean value curve sinks, although not continuously, but still has a significant tendency to fall below 20 percent.

Only since then has there been a slight upward trend back towards this level.

Who will succeed Angela Merkel, which coalitions are possible?

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But the real winner is the SPD.

Even in the averaged curve, a quite sudden upward trend becomes clear: In May, the approval of the Sunday questions for the Social Democrats continued to decline - despite the beginning of the misery of the Greens.

Especially since the end of July, the hope of the SPD election campaigners has increased.

In Kriesel's overview since the 2017 federal elections, it can be seen that apart from all the survey outliers, the party is doing as well in the race as it has been since the beginning of 2018.

In fact, their chances of being Chancellor are even better than they were then.

Because at that time the Union was well over 30 percent.

The Sunday questions overview also shows another winner of the corona and flood year 2021 - the FDP.

For practically the whole of 2020, the Liberals had cancer a few percentage points above the five percent threshold.

Since spring, the averaged survey values ​​have climbed to over the ten percent mark.

Interestingly enough, this trend seems fairly stable overall.

Regardless of whether the Union or the Greens are on the decline.

Polls for voting: figures from the institutes in comparison - Forsa surveys rate the SPD rather low

Last but not least, the computer scientist's evaluation also provides another insight: In addition to the mean value, it also records the individual results of the institutes - and illustrates which opinion pollers repeatedly measure significantly higher or lower values ​​for which party than the averaging of all Sunday questions gives the publication date.

It seems noticeable, for example, that the Allensbach Institute repeatedly rates the Union noticeably higher than the competition.

The Greens, on the other hand, apparently come off well above average in the ZDF “Politbarometer”, but rather badly with Insa.

There, in turn, the SPD often ranks particularly high.

Recently, Emnid apparently tended to attest a head-to-head race between black and green, where the competition tended to be much larger.

Meanwhile, the proximity to the SPD, which was sometimes accused of the Forsa opinion polls, cannot be recognized - on the contrary, the opinion pollers around the institute's founder Manfred Güllner apparently often determine lower values ​​for the Social Democrats than the averages. Incidentally, they often collect rather low values ​​for the AfD and sometimes for the left.

In his presentation, Kriesel took into account the institutes Allensbach, Dimap, Emnid, Forsa, GMS, Insa, Ipsos, Politbarometer, Yougov. According to the information, the values ​​on which the curve is based also result from your Sunday questions; based on the data collection on the

Wahlrecht.de

website

. The surveys by Kantar are apparently not received - the institute provides the RTL / n-tv trend barometer, among other things. And at this point had only recently raised a massive slump for the Union. (

fn

)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-08-17

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