Italy is heading for an uncertain change in the head of State

Sergio Mattarella, the president of the Italian Republic who has become a key figure in the country's politics in its periods of greatest crisis and fragility, is preparing to say goodbye to office and, barring surprises, will leave the Quirinal Palace in February. His mandate has entered the final stretch this August, the last six months, which are usually known as the White Semester, which marks a decisive phase in which the Houses of Parliament cannot be dissolved or elections called. The race to elect a successor has started long ago, but a consensus name will be difficult to find.

The election of the head of the State falls on the Parliament, which votes every seven years for its candidate so as not to interfere in the electoral cycles and becomes a crucial moment that determines the future and the nature of many political decisions.

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Since he was elected in 2015, Mattarella, with a discreet but firm profile and one of the last representatives of the old Christian Democrats, has lived at the head of the Head of State for some troubled years. In this time he has dispatched with four prime ministers, he has piloted three government crises in which he has played a fundamental role, one of them in full emergency due to the coronavirus; It has faced natural disasters that have devastated Italy, such as the 2016 Amatrice earthquake, and a pandemic that has posed the country's greatest challenge after World War II. He has also witnessed the advance of the extreme right in Parliament and of the Eurosceptics, which has made him come out of the background in which he is usually more comfortable,as when he even vetoed - it was the first time he had used this prerogative - a candidate for minister against the euro.

In Italian politics the head of state is a kind of referee. The Constitution grants him broad powers and hence the importance of his choice. As he himself has pointed out on occasion, he is not a mere notary who signs everything that is put on the table. Among other things, he is in charge of dissolving the Chambers to call elections, commission the formation of a Government and appoint the Prime Minister and his team.

During the White Semester, the parties begin political negotiations to choose the person who will occupy the Quirinal Palace for the next seven years.

This mechanism was also established as a protection, to prevent a president from trying to influence Parliament to get his re-election.

Mattarella does not want to repeat or extend his farewell.

If there were a debacle, if a consensus candidate could not be reached, as happened with Giorgio Napolitano (2006-2015), he could study a kind of extension.

But he himself has slipped that it is not the option he would like.

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The current extraordinary political context, with a great national coalition that encompasses all parties with representation in Parliament, except for the far-right Brothers of Italy, is a unique case for a white Semester. On the complex horizon is not only the race for the Quirinal Palace, which is already an element that habitually destabilizes Italian politics, but the health emergency and its economic and social impact on the country are not yet under control.

In addition, the name of the current prime minister, Mario Draghi, is the one that sounds the strongest to succeed Mattarella. But the reforms that the former president of the European Central Bank has undertaken are still halfway there. If this hypothesis is confirmed, the country would face uncertainty and the need to apply new formulas that could even go through early elections in February or a temporary extension of Mattarella until Draghi runs out of the legislature, which ends in 2023, or at least until that it has fulfilled its objective of leading Italy towards recovery and historical modernization and then make the leap to the presidency of the Republic.

The Minister of Economic Development and

number two

of the far-right Liga, Giancarlo Giorgietti, has defined the possibility of Draghi becoming head of state as "a serious problem" at the political level, in a recent interview with

Il Corriere della Sera

. "Currently there is an anomalous majority not of national unity, but around a person who is Mario Draghi," he said. "If Draghi decides to present himself and become President of the Republic, I do not see how the Government could move forward," he pointed out and added that in that case "there would be no alternatives and the floor would have to be given back to the Italians."

During the White Semester, political crises are almost always feared precisely because of the inability of the President of the Republic to dissolve the Chambers. It is usually a period of turbulence that parties take advantage of to sharpen their weapons. While the head of state has his hands tied, the government partners, without the risk of possible elections, feel freer to try to impose their claims or engage with crossed vetoes and may even fly over the temptation to try to create a new Executive . In any case, the president's emergency brake function is always guaranteed. For now, Matterella has recently made an appeal to the political forces to "not lose sight of the most ambitious medium and long-term objectives that the country has set itself."

Some analysts hope that the vast majority that supports Draghi may suffer some casualties - especially from the League or the 5-Star Movement - during some controversial parliamentary votes that are on the political agenda next year, such as the law that it will regulate the crimes for homophobia, the fiscal reform or the decisions on the return to the schools. Also before important electoral appointments that will be celebrated in autumn in big cities like Rome, Milan, Turin or Naples.

Others, on the other hand, think that after approving the Justice reform, a deeply divisive issue for the current majority, the wide support that Mario Draghi enjoys and the commitment to apply the Recovery Plan should be enough to guarantee the good progress of political life, at least until February. "Draghi has a great consensus and at this moment there are no political alternatives in Parliament for another government, nor the possibility of going to elections, there should be no problems," says political scientist Piero Ignazi. "The power struggles will be neutralized by the force of the prime minister," said the deputy of the Democratic Party, Stefano Ceccanti.