Reason for optimism?
In recent days, the infection rate in Israel has been declining and as of today (Thursday) it stands at 1.23, ie the doubling rate of the outbreak of the virus that has been doubling every ten days is decreasing and it is now doubling itself at a slower rate.
Although an increase in patients is difficult, and once again we were with more than 8,000 verified, but there are signs that Israel is on its way to halting the fourth wave of morbidity.
This is what various experts have assessed today.
At the same time, severe patient indices also show encouraging signs, and are likely to indicate that the third vaccine, the booster injection, works and prevents serious illness.
This is reflected in the fact that today in Israel there are "only" 603 seriously ill patients, while it was expected that there would be 720 active patients at the normal rate of doubling.
Professor Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute told Gali Tzahal today, "In recent days we have seen a slowdown in morbidity - in the last month and a half we have seen a doubling every few days, and with the same trend we should have 720 critically ill, now there are 600. It should be seen that it will continue. "He further said that in more optimistic forecasts there is a possibility that" if the trend continues, by the first week of September we will also see a decline. "
A similar position was stated today in the report of the IDF Knowledge and Information Center, which states that there are initial signs that the boost of the booster, raises the level of antibodies in the body significantly and thus the body's protection is significantly improved.
A consecutive Wednesday in which the rate of increase doubles every 10 days in the number of patients is difficult in
the
hospital
This morning 603 difficult in the hospital, compared to 717 which was expected at the same rate of doubling
still only 4 days, have to wait longer, hope the trend continues
orange: Expect doubling Every 10 days
blue: Real data pic.twitter.com/zVJzcIDVNU
- Eran Segal (@segal_eran) August 19, 2021
In this regard, in a series of tables published by Prof. Segal, he showed the significant decrease in casualties aged 60 and over after receiving the third dose of vaccine.
According to the graphs, in this age group there is a 35 percent decrease in the number of new cases of morbidity, a 30 percent decrease in hospitalizations and a 20 percent decrease in the number of severe patients.
At the same time, a similar and optimistic position was also expressed by Professor Ran Blitzer, an epidemiologist and expert in public health and medical administration, founder and director of the Clalit Health Services Research Institute.
In a Twitter tweet he wrote the booster cream reduces the number of patients detected in the 60s who received the vaccine, and that there appears to be a decline in their morbidity graph from 11 August.
3rd booster dose seems to be reducing documented infections on individual level and also, now - population level -
See key MoH figures:
1. Daily # documented infections among vacc / recovered 60+ (> 95%)
2. Rates per 10k by age
Despite rising rates, in 60+ curve is bending!
🧵> pic.twitter.com/S8tkctYOza
- Ran Balicer (@RanBalicer) August 19, 2021
Earlier this week, a similar opinion was expressed by experts in the field in a conversation with Israel Today.
Professor Doron Gazit from the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the Hebrew University, said that there is room for cautious optimism regarding the aging public in the country now dealing with the corona virus.
"We see that the infection rate in adults is around 1, lower than the official infection rate of the entire population. We also see a decrease in infection in them."
A similar position was expressed by Prof. Dvir Aran of the Technion in a conversation with Israel Today.
He said, "I've been looking at the data for a week now and I'm looking at the rate of change in verified people. August among the elderly patients. "
He added that "in fact, among the 60-year-olds, the coefficient of infection has been reduced from 1.4 to 1.1 and it is possible that it has dropped even below 1 and this will stop the increase in their infection. This stop and decrease is seen in vaccinated adults and not in adults Unvaccinated or in vaccinated and unvaccinated young people. This reality has two possibilities; the first is that these adults maintain more social distance and therefore are almost non-contagious, and the second explanation is that the booster shot is good. It will stop the wave. "