Afghanistan's neighbors don't trust the Taliban.
Nevertheless, they speak to the god warriors - and coordinate their security policy.
China will probably play the most important role.
Kabul / Beijing - The triumphant advance of the Taliban has turned the political power structures in South Asia upside down. With the withdrawal of the western protective powers, other powers will be vying for influence in Afghanistan *: China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India or Turkey. These states have so far reacted pragmatically to the Islamists' seizure of power. For example, China * and Russia will continue to operate their embassies in Kabul for the time being. But they are all cautious to suspicious in dealing with the warriors of God.
China immediately called for the Taliban to turn away clearly from Islamist terrorism.
“The situation in Afghanistan changed overnight.
What happens next will depend on the political direction of the Afghan Taliban, ”said Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on Wednesday.
He mentioned "positive gestures" by the Taliban in this direction.
Wang wants to coordinate Afghanistan policy with his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi - he also spoke to him on Wednesday.
Afghanistan: hectic telephone diplomacy to the Taliban after the fall of Kabul
Since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban *, all important actors, including the USA, have been coordinating the security situation with one another in hectic telephone diplomacy. Everyone is in a state of nervous waiting. After the capture of Kabul, the Taliban had promised more rights for women and an amnesty for government officials and stressed that they were more moderate than before. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the group did not want internal or external enemies and would cultivate peaceful relations with other nations. But nobody really trusts the warriors of God on their way.
Above all, the neighboring states fear a spill over of unrest and terror on their national territory - as well as a wave of refugees.
Afghanistan borders on Pakistan for 2,250 kilometers in the east and China for a good 70 kilometers, in the north on Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and in the west on Iran.
Most of the Afghan refugees are currently in Pakistan and Iran - around two million people each.
According to media reports, Iran announced that it would build more refugee camps in three border provinces.
China: Realpolitik in dealing with the Taliban - for fear of exporting terror
The eyes of the West are mainly on China. Foreign Office spokeswoman Hua Chunying promised the Taliban "friendly relations" at a press conference earlier this week. However, she evaded the question of diplomatic recognition of the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan. On Thursday, Hua said the Taliban are more “rational” today than they were during their first rule from 1996 to 2001, when they banned women from public life and sheltered al-Qaeda terrorists. Hua called on the world to look at the situation in Afghanistan “more objectively” - and not just on the basis of the past.
But that shouldn't hide the fact that China isn't a true Taliban friend either. Other states are also talking to the Taliban; the US even signed an agreement * with them in 2020 on ways to peace. "Although Beijing is pragmatic about the realities of power, it has always been uncomfortable with the Taliban's ideological agenda," said Andrew Small, Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund. China is socialist rather than religious, and women there have officially enjoyed equal rights for decades. China is also not inclined to perceive Afghanistan as a place of opportunity, says Small, referring to reports on China's alleged economic ambitions in Afghanistan, for example in the raw materials sector. China is "almost exclusively about managing threats." China has long been concernedthat Afghanistan will again become a refuge for militant Islamists.
Beijing is primarily concerned with a Uyghur group called the
Turkestan Islamic Party
(TIP), which
is said to have emerged
from the earlier
East Turkestan Islamic Movement
(ETIM).
The Uyghurs in the Xinjiang * region have been harassed by Beijing for years.
Some experts see China's fear of the TIP as exaggerated.
However, ETIM was on the US terror list until 2020.
Today it is said to have largely dissolved.
The danger situation is therefore unclear.
China: First of all, security is more important than economic commitment
China's few economic investments, for example in Afghan mines, have been on hold for years; Trade relationships are limited to simple products such as pine nuts. In the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, however, China's commitment has grown significantly over the past 20 years - also through infrastructure projects on the New Silk Road *. Beijing is therefore concerned about the spread of terrorism and conflicts in these countries too - especially Pakistan, where 13 Chinese contract workers on a Silk Road construction project were recently killed in an attack.
Out of these concerns, Wang Yi met a Taliban delegation * led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar * - a co-founder of the Taliban who is considered the future president - at the end of July.
In the Beijing Foreign Ministry, unlike the United States, they were already expecting a rapid fall of the country to the warriors behind closed doors.
One day after the meeting, the embassy in Kabul therefore called on all Chinese living there to leave the country.
According to a report by the state newspaper
Global Times
, China
had already flown
210 business people out
at the beginning of July.
Afghanistan: Russia and Pakistan are also ambivalent
Other states are dealing with the situation in a similarly sober manner. Russia * and Iran * have also met Taliban delegations again and again in recent years in order not to let the thread of the conversation break. Ambassador Dmitri Shirnov said on Tuesday after a meeting with the Taliban's security coordinator in Kabul whether Russia will recognize a Taliban government depends on its “behavior”. "Many of the regional powers, including American rivals such as Iran and Russia, are very ambivalent about the withdrawal of US forces," says Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the US think tank Wilson Center. "The US and NATO troops had created a little stability."
Relations between the Taliban and Pakistan have always been particularly close. But the situation is also difficult for Islamabad. The government had allowed the Afghan Taliban to operate on Pakistani territory for years - and thus indirectly boosted its own Islamists, including a local group of radical Taliban fighters (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP). The Taliban victory brings Pakistan advantages above all in the competition with its arch-rival India, which was allied with the Afghan ex-government around President Ashraf Ghani - and is now seeing its influence waning. "India and Pakistan are fighting for influence in Afghanistan," writes the Pakistani newspaper
Dawn
: The United States does not like to see that: Washington warns that this rivalry "further strains the already tense situation in a sensitive region."
India, on the other hand, fears that attacks by Islamic warriors in their own country are threatened again - like during the first Taliban rule.
China: Most important regional power for the future of Afghanistan
Pakistan may have the closest ties to the Taliban - "but Afghanistan's most powerful and influential neighbor will be Beijing," believes Raffaello Pantucci of the defense think tank Royal United Services Institute in London. Pakistan is dependent on China, and Iran and Central Asia are also relying on an economic partnership with Beijing. However, Pantucci does not see the danger that China will interfere too much in Afghanistan - rather too little: “Admittedly, Afghanistan is a difficult country and China has little experience with such conflict solutions. But it would have been hoped that it would take a more active role in a country with a common border. "
In a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Wang Yi said China is ready to cooperate - but expects the US * to stop putting constant pressure on Beijing. The US could not try to contain China on the one hand - and expect support on the other.
Wang had blamed the USA for the chaos * in Afghanistan because of the hasty withdrawal. At the same time, the
Global Times
showed
glee about the US debacle in Afghanistan. The paper interpreted this in several comments as a sign that US security guarantees to its allies were no longer worth anything. The situation confirms China's view that it is on the upswing. But with that comes a greater responsibility. Afghanistan is now an important test of whether China is up to it. (
ck)
*
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