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Henri will impact the United States, but it is not yet known how much

2021-08-20T01:20:09.077Z


The northeastern United States will feel the impacts of Tropical Storm Henri, which may even make landfall, computer models suggest.


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(CNN) -

The northeastern United States will feel the impacts of Tropical Storm Henri, which may even make landfall, computer forecasting models suggest.

But if it did make landfall, this wouldn't happen until Sunday into Monday, and a lot can change in that period.

"The most important point here is that it is still too early to know exactly how close the center of Henri will be to the New England coast," says the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Even if Henri doesn't make it to shore, the storm surge could cause high waves and potentially deadly rip currents.

However, the official NHC forecast states that it is possible that it will make landfall in New England, from Connecticut to Maine.

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"It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves closer to New England, the wind field is expected to expand," the NHC says in its latest update.

"Therefore, users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points, as the impacts will extend far from the center."

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The NHC also notes that alerts and warnings for locations within the cone are likely to be required this weekend.

It is possible that they will be emitted tomorrow.

The European model predicts a weaker storm with the largest impacts on Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

The American model brings the center of the storm closer to the coast.

This would make the impacts larger from eastern Long Island to Maine.

  • Follow Henri's career in real time

It doesn't help that the weather forecast models appear to be out of order when it comes to Henri's predicted trajectory.

Massachusetts, which could take a direct hit, can expect damaging winds, storm surge and heavy rain, among other potential hazards.

"Keep in mind that the tides will be astronomically high this weekend along both coasts," says the National Weather Service (NWS) in Boston.

Timing matters because the lunar phase tides will already be higher than normal, so any storm surge above that could trigger further coastal flooding.

"The trajectory will ultimately tell us which coastline is most at risk (whether the east coast or the south) or whether they will both be at risk," the Boston NWS said.

Tropical storm force winds off the Massachusetts coast are expected to begin Sunday morning, so the NWS urges all necessary preparations to be made before then.

Although models may vary on what the exact impacts of Henri will be, it is always best to be prepared in case storms hit the ground.

Henri's likely impacts

"Generally, with tropical storms the biggest impact is from rains causing flooding," said Margaret Curtis, a meteorologist with the NWS in Portland, Maine.

Thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, heavy rains will fall over much of New England today.

There are also chances for additional rain across much of the Northeast this weekend, so flooding will be a concern even before Tropical Storm Henri potentially hits the area.

But Curtis explains that there are other concerns as well.

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"Offshore, high surf and heavy pounding can lead to coastal flooding and erosion," Curtis said.

And the high surf, as well as the rip currents, will not be limited to just the northeast.

Coastal communities from North Carolina to Atlantic Canada could experience "potentially deadly waves and rip currents," according to the NHC.

Here are the 11 am AST Key Messages on Tropical Storm #Henri.

The storm is expected to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday, and interests there should monitor its progress.

See https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB for details.

pic.twitter.com/NdPbRtlJNA

- National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 19, 2021

Additional weather balloon launches are expected to take place across much of the east coast.

These launches provide additional information on how the atmosphere might influence Henri's predicted trajectory.

"Hurricane chaser planes sampling the atmosphere around the storm will likely play a bigger role than additional launches in gaining accuracy and confidence in upcoming model results," says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

"It is too early to determine what the storm will do at this time, but it makes landfall like a hurricane and then the center comes to rest on the ground causing tremendous flooding appears to be the worst case scenario in some of the current model results." Explain.

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-08-20

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